Anybody following VW's fuck up?

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Thud » Fri Oct 16, 2015 2:38 pm

I'm curious what kind of incentives they'll be offering on their cars. I imagine they'll have to do something to kick start sales.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Thu Nov 26, 2015 12:37 pm

11/25- VW closed at 28.59 today, up 25.9% from its low on 10/02 of 22.71. I missed the bottom by 4 cents. A year after the revelation of cheating, I'd not be surprised if it's 40-50 per share. Good start so far even with more bad news this past week about cheating on German income taxes for low emission tax breaks. Beat goes on.(edit) When it breaks through 31 per share, it will be off to the races.
12/9-Okay it broke 31/share today(barely) so the next level as I see it is 43 bucks. I bought a small amount at 30.80. will add to my position if it closes above 31.50, since I saw that as the real breakout level.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Dec 17, 2015 4:59 pm

VW sales dropped 25% in November. Brutal.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Turdacious » Thu Dec 17, 2015 5:01 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:VW sales dropped 25% in November. Brutal.
In which market?
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 11:15 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:VW sales dropped 25% in November. Brutal.
In which market?
Actually, Porsche and Audi's sales were flat for the month, and they contribute a huge amount of VW's profit. Since the fall, VW's stock is up 33%, The S&P500 is up about 4-5%, during the same time span. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Fri Dec 18, 2015 4:01 am

DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Fri Dec 18, 2015 11:17 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.
http://newsvader.com/id/15424364054 (it didn't take much of a search to do this).

Spells, do a search on Yahoo finance, literally dozens of stories from different sources. Are they lying, probably, but investors don't give a shit about the truth. Market down 367 today Ford, toyota, GM, Daimler, Tesla all down...VW was up again. It's a good thing you're in the compliance side of things, since contrarian investing doesn't seem to be your thing. I stick by my original assessment.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:36 am

DikTracy6000 wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.
http://newsvader.com/id/15424364054 (it didn't take much of a search to do this).
It usually doesn't take much searching to find an article with no sources.
Spells, do a search on Yahoo finance, literally dozens of stories from different sources. Are they lying, probably, but investors don't give a shit about the truth. Market down 367 today Ford, toyota, GM, Daimler, Tesla all down...VW was up again.
I'm reading people on the record at the dealership level describing significant issues with no answers from VW and restricted inventory. What the stock did today is completely irrelevant.
It's a good thing you're in the compliance side of things, since contrarian investing doesn't seem to be your thing. I stick by my original assessment.
I know enough to know that people consistently over-estimate their ability to pick stocks, and in reality almost nobody outside of a minority of professionals can pull it off over the long run, which is the only run I care about. Vanguard exists and succeeds for a reason.

In any case, good luck.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by TerryB » Sun Dec 20, 2015 1:39 am

So angry!
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Sun Dec 20, 2015 12:58 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.
http://newsvader.com/id/15424364054 (it didn't take much of a search to do this).
It usually doesn't take much searching to find an article with no sources.
Spells, do a search on Yahoo finance, literally dozens of stories from different sources. Are they lying, probably, but investors don't give a shit about the truth. Market down 367 today Ford, toyota, GM, Daimler, Tesla all down...VW was up again.
I'm reading people on the record at the dealership level describing significant issues with no answers from VW and restricted inventory. What the stock did today is completely irrelevant.
It's a good thing you're in the compliance side of things, since contrarian investing doesn't seem to be your thing. I stick by my original assessment.
I know enough to know that people consistently over-estimate their ability to pick stocks, and in reality almost nobody outside of a minority of professionals can pull it off over the long run, which is the only run I care about. Vanguard exists and succeeds for a reason.

In any case, good luck.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Turdacious » Sun Dec 20, 2015 9:37 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.
http://newsvader.com/id/15424364054 (it didn't take much of a search to do this).
It usually doesn't take much searching to find an article with no sources.
It's a news article from a wire service; it gave sources the way most wire service articles do.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by TerryB » Mon Dec 21, 2015 1:37 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:. Their emission problem was just reported to be less of a problem than expected. I've added to my position the past few weeks.
By who? I literally read about this today in the trade magazine: No clear fix or timeline for one and limited inventory.
http://newsvader.com/id/15424364054 (it didn't take much of a search to do this).
It usually doesn't take much searching to find an article with no sources.
It's a news article from a wire service; it gave sources the way most wire service articles do.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by The Crawdaddy » Wed Jul 13, 2016 12:06 am

Reviving. So on 28 June, there was a prelim settlement. 2 Options: Buyback at 2015 average NADA value plus minimum of $5100 restitution or Fix plus same restitution.

I'm going with option 1 when the application period starts (September). Pool is capped at 10.3 Billion. Not missing out. My 2009 TDI Sportwagen is estimated at 13-15K including restitution. Can't see ever getting more... Just need to decide replacement. Got some time.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Sun Jan 08, 2017 2:46 pm

DikTracy6000 wrote:Great investment opportunity.
Wow, the stock market has had a great run since I made this prediction. The S&P500 has run up 16.7% since I bought VW on Oct. 2,2015. The Dow, holy shit has spiked 21.1% in that time frame. Trump effect? So how has the down beaten VW done over that time period? I'm actually disappointed, as it didn't hit my target of 40-42. It only went up 32.2% in spite of Billions of dollars in lawsuits, fines, more fines, people jailed(nobody killed though) and probably even more lawsuits coming. Contrarian investing on big entities when they do something stupid is something that's worked a very high percentage of times if you can stand the dips. I actually sold mine when it was up 41% at one point, but may well get back in on the next major dip.
One negative thing that the management did during that period was cutting the healthy dividend from around 7% to almost nothing at some point. That almost had to happen.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Gene » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:08 pm

Don't know what to say about VW. Was it a lie or just shitty software?

US NOx regs are much tougher than European regs. Do we need to run the whole US like we all live in the LA Basin or Denver? Really?

Per this article the EU has much tougher CO2 regs . They were willing to tolerate some smog to meet those goals.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfishe ... 009c395f2f
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Sun Jan 08, 2017 6:28 pm

VW's solution was a straight lie. If the car's computer detected throttle inputs that were similar to an emissions test but no change in the steering angle sensor, it assumed the car was being tested and went to an entirely different engine map.

Mercedes stretched the letter of the law razor thin. They mapped their diesels so they met the emissions standards at the exact load/rpm ranges tested during an emissions test no matter if it was during actual driving or during a test. But they were way out of bounds at any other operating parameters. So technically, the Mercedes diesels are clean according to EPA testing procedures. They met the letter of the rules, not the intent.

As to controlling CO2 or NOx output preferentially, it depends on whether you consider climate effects of CO2 more dangerous than localized smog and acid rain.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by tough old man » Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:51 pm

[quoteFar be it from me to hold out as the law and order candidate but I would say the problem is that they committed fraud and sold a very expensive product that did not perform as billed. That's a problem.][/quote]

I love the buy back program. You have to basically jump through hoops but you get a lot more than KBB for your car.

I've used it as a marketing tool. Convincing people to buy now and put that golden egg in the garage lest they damage it and decrease its value.

Had one customer total hers. The difference that she lost was almost $8000 dollars.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Boris » Mon Jan 09, 2017 9:14 pm

DrDonkeyLove wrote:
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
I had a 2005 Passat that went through at least a half dozen oil pumps, sometimes stranding me hundreds of miles from home.
The software in question affects 2009+ models. Are you talking about another issue?

I have a gas VW and it's a safe bet the value just took a hit. Dealers are getting screwed hard.
Yes, another issue that was eventually "resolved" but fucked many Passat owners. I bring it up because it's another relatively recent example of their lack of character. And...because I try to never miss an opportunity to discourage people from purchasing VW's.

I was in a mega dealership about a year ago and talked to one of the brand managers. He used to be in their VW store but wanted out because he didn't like their quality.

If your VW is perfectly fine, as you said you're probably getting fucked on resale value. Let's see if they offer current gas engine owners a penny to compensate for resale losses. They're a bad company.

Of course GM killed 124 people by ignoring their ignition problems so VW isn't alone on the shit list.
Are there any not on the shit list??? Seriously, I would like to give my money to company that hasn't had issues. I bought a Toyota a few years ago thinking I would be safe and put up with an obnoxious salesman going on and on about Toyota quality and then there was the accelerator deaths, denials, and recall, brake recall, window recall... I will never buy another Toyota even though the car has served me well.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:20 pm

DikTracy6000 wrote:
DikTracy6000 wrote:Great investment opportunity.
Wow, the stock market has had a great run since I made this prediction. The S&P500 has run up 16.7% since I bought VW on Oct. 2,2015. The Dow, holy shit has spiked 21.1% in that time frame. Trump effect? So how has the down beaten VW done over that time period? I'm actually disappointed, as it didn't hit my target of 40-42. It only went up 32.2% in spite of Billions of dollars in lawsuits, fines, more fines, people jailed(nobody killed though) and probably even more lawsuits coming. Contrarian investing on big entities when they do something stupid is something that's worked a very high percentage of times if you can stand the dips. I actually sold mine when it was up 41% at one point, but may well get back in on the next major dip.
One negative thing that the management did during that period was cutting the healthy dividend from around 7% to almost nothing at some point. That almost had to happen.
Justice dept. announces amount of fines, people go to prison and VW is up 44% today from its lowpoint. Screw the consumers and govt. reg's.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Turdacious » Thu May 25, 2017 3:06 am

The U.S. government has filed a civil lawsuit accusing Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV of using software to bypass emission controls in diesel vehicles.

The U.S. Justice Department suit, filed in U.S. District court in Detroit, is a procedural step that may ramp up pressure on Fiat Chrysler. The suit could ultimately help lead to a settlement, as in an earlier probe of rival Volkswagen AG that will cost VW up to $25 billion, but which affected a much larger number of vehicles.

VW admitted to intentionally cheating while Fiat Chrysler denies wrongdoing. It did not immediately comment on Tuesday.
http://time.com/4791125/fiat-chrysler-d ... s-lawsuit/
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Thu May 25, 2017 12:03 pm

Turdacious wrote:
The U.S. government has filed a civil lawsuit accusing Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV of using software to bypass emission controls in diesel vehicles.

The U.S. Justice Department suit, filed in U.S. District court in Detroit, is a procedural step that may ramp up pressure on Fiat Chrysler. The suit could ultimately help lead to a settlement, as in an earlier probe of rival Volkswagen AG that will cost VW up to $25 billion, but which affected a much larger number of vehicles.

VW admitted to intentionally cheating while Fiat Chrysler denies wrongdoing. It did not immediately comment on Tuesday.
http://time.com/4791125/fiat-chrysler-d ... s-lawsuit/
Harm the planet via emissions cheating and the govt will fine your ass big time. Kill people with self/auto-driving functions, not so much. Wait until the civil lawsuits for wrongful deaths get a real foothold on auto-driving functions get started. And I realize a few already have been settled.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by nafod » Thu May 25, 2017 12:31 pm

Harm the planet via emissions cheating and the govt will fine your ass big time. Kill people with self/auto-driving functions, not so much.
i bet over time the auto-driving will result in huge safety increases (never tired, never drunk, no learning curve for new driver, etc.), but it will be messy sorting out the accidents that do occur.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by DikTracy6000 » Thu May 25, 2017 1:45 pm

nafod wrote:
Harm the planet via emissions cheating and the govt will fine your ass big time. Kill people with self/auto-driving functions, not so much.
i bet over time the auto-driving will result in huge safety increases (never tired, never drunk, no learning curve for new driver, etc.), but it will be messy sorting out the accidents that do occur.
Not disagreeing at all concerning improved safety, but it will be a litigation nightmare for a few years. By then, it will probably be automatic that all vehicles have dash cams and some kind of black box devices. New potential investment frontier.

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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by nafod » Thu May 25, 2017 2:28 pm

DikTracy6000 wrote:By then, it will probably be automatic that all vehicles have dash cams...
One of our favorite family activities is watching dashcam footage from Russia

.
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Re: Anybody following VW's fuck up?

Post by Sangoma » Fri May 26, 2017 4:06 am

This is some nasty shit. Brings me back to reality when I get irritated with the traffic and drivers' manners in Sydney. Thanks for posting this.
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