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PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 12:33 pm 
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Where is it written in stone that a country's population must never decline? In all species, population fluctuations are normal.
Nothing is written in stone, for sure, but it changes the complexion of a country when you don't have the young people to do all of the things that need doing, that only young people can do.

The market forces are going to speak, as industry goes on the hunt for labor to do the work. If Americans are unwilling or unavailable to (for example) work in the slaughterhouses, industry will look the other way while illegals work in the grey area between legal and tossed out the door, essentially indentured servants with a sword over their heads.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 30, 2018 5:50 pm 
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Where is it written in stone that a country's population must never decline? In all species, population fluctuations are normal.
Nothing is written in stone, for sure, but it changes the complexion of a country when you don't have the young people to do all of the things that need doing, that only young people can do.

The market forces are going to speak, as industry goes on the hunt for labor to do the work. If Americans are unwilling or unavailable to (for example) work in the slaughterhouses, industry will look the other way while illegals work in the grey area between legal and tossed out the door, essentially indentured servants with a sword over their heads.
No.

You are not thinking about this logically.

First, there is no such thing as a job Americans won't do. That's bullshit invented by left-leaning media and their corporate sponsorship to justify overlooking illegal aliens.

Second, lower level labor jobs such as abattoirs and meat packing are subject to increasing automation, so the demand for labor in those markets is not going to increase.

Third, even were that not the case, there is nothing in the world that says we can't have immigration reform that: (i) allows people to emigrate legally, and (ii) provides a sensible system for guest-workers, such as Germany has had for 10,000 years.

Finally, and this is the real point, the entire vision of the government as a pyramid scheme which needs a constantly increasing base of younger people for the continuous expansion of the social state and as welfare for old people is Satanic in that it reduces human beings from independent, apex predators to dependent little, materialist-consumer serfs. In fact, our whole policy towards the Third World should be depopulation through birth control. In no way whatsoever should developed countries act as a safety valve for the pressures of unchecked breeding in every shithole around the globe. If they have too many people, they should sit and rot in their place and learn family planning, environmental protection, and sensible government the hard way.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:40 pm 
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No.

You are not thinking about this logically.

First, there is no such thing as a job Americans won't do. That's bullshit invented by left-leaning media and their corporate sponsorship to justify overlooking illegal aliens.
You are ignoring a few hundred years of american history on this. From indentured servants to slaves to current immigrants, our country's history is one of immigrants coming in and doing the dull, dirty, dangerous work. My relatives came from East Europe and worked the "beautiful clean" coal mines.

Here's some nice quotes from the far corner of Iowa that voted for Trump by about 40 points, where Nunes from California actually has his farm.
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Hoyer’s extended family, including grandkids, were milling around the shop. The place had a welcoming family vibe and more diversity than you might expect. I noticed several Hispanic women eating pastries and speaking Spanish at a nearby table. Sibley is actually 8 percent Hispanic, and that growing population largely provides the labor for the area’s meatpacking, poultry, and dairy industries. Immigrants are essential to Iowa, which has an estimated forty thousand undocumented residents, mostly Hispanics, according to a 2014 report from the Pew Research Center.

In every conversation I had with dairy farmers and industry insiders in northwest Iowa, it was taken as a fact that the local dairies are wholly dependent on undocumented labor. The low unemployment rate (it’s 2 percent in Osceola County), the low profit margins in the dairy business, and the global glut of milk that keeps prices low make hiring outside of the readily available pool of immigrants from Mexico and Guatemala unthinkable.

“Eighty percent of the Latino population out here in northwest Iowa is undocumented,” estimated one dairy farmer in the area who knows the Nunes family and often sees them while buying hay in nearby Rock Valley. “It would be great if we had enough unemployed Americans in northwest Iowa to milk the cows. But there’s just not. We have a very tight labor pool around here.” This person said the system was broken, leaving dairy farmers no choice. “I would love it if all my guys could be legal.”

I asked what the chances are that a farm the size of NuStar (owned by Devin Nunes' family) uses only fully legal dairy workers. “It’s next to impossible,” the first dairy farmer said. “There’s no dang way.” This was speculation, but here is the logic that informed it: Most workers start at fourteen or fifteen dollars an hour, the first farmer said. If dairies had to use legal labor, they would likely have to raise that to eighteen or twenty dollars, and many dairies wouldn’t survive. “People are going to go broke,” the farmer said. The story was similar in the poultry, meatpacking, and other agricultural industries in the area.

What this person was describing was hard to wrap my head around. In the heart of Steve King’s district, a place that is more pro-Trump than almost any other patch of America, the economy is powered by workers that King and Trump have threatened to arrest and deport.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 2:44 pm 
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That kind of analysis doesn't account for subsidies and import restrictions benefiting the dairy industry (there is no real free market for ag in the US) or the other kinds of substitution effects (like the unskilled labor vs. mechanization tradeoff).

Even at a local level the tradeoff is more complicated than that-- undocumented workers do support local economies by patronizing local businesses but are a drain in others (they often live in federally subsidized housing i.e. don't pay property taxes and send their kids to local schools which are primarily paid for by local property taxes) I grew up in an area which was and is heavily dependent on Mexican farm labor-- over half the current residents of my home town either are or are descended from migrant farm workers-- and they generally integrated pretty well. From what I hear, the current crop of migrant workers come from a different part of Mexico than previous generations and have a far lower level of education (most of them are illiterate in both English and Spanish). Nobody there is certain how well they will assimilate even if they get a path to citizenship.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 4:22 pm 
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That kind of analysis doesn't account for subsidies and import restrictions benefiting the dairy industry (there is no real free market for ag in the US) or the other kinds of substitution effects (like the unskilled labor vs. mechanization tradeoff).
It wasn't really an analysis so much as an observation of facts on the ground. Even with subsidies and other benefits, the dairy industry needs to illegal immigrants to make a profit. The market speaks, even in a heavily republican district. Everyone can be all anti-immigrant until you have to sell the family farm when your labor gets deported.
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Even at a local level the tradeoff is more complicated than that-- undocumented workers do support local economies by patronizing local businesses but are a drain in others (they often live in federally subsidized housing i.e. don't pay property taxes and send their kids to local schools which are primarily paid for by local property taxes)
In this community they are critical.
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The mayor, though, was impressively enlightened when it came to Sibley’s immigrant population. Perhaps because of the Nunes debacle, he invited me to his office to talk to him and the city administrator, Glenn Anderson. “I told him to go see Nunes, and that didn’t go very good,” he told Anderson as we sat down.

Anderson voted for Trump, but he exploded every Trump myth about immigration. The rise in Sibley’s Hispanic population hasn’t been accompanied by a rise in crime. Most of the crime in Sibley is connected to drug-related traffic stops on Highway 60, he said. Kevin Wollmuth, a deputy in the county sheriff’s office, told me that the rise in immigration “doesn’t have any bearing on our crime rate at all.”

...I hope ICE stays the hell away from Sibley. The immigration system that powers Iowa’s dairies is undoubtedly broken. The dairy owners live with the ever-present fear of becoming the next Mike Millenkamp. The undocumented workers live in the shadows and, especially in the era of Trump and zero tolerance, constantly fear arrest and deportation. Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress, including Devin Nunes (per his CaRepublican website), have decided that unwavering support for ICE is crucial to their efforts to attack Democrats and help the GOP keep control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections. Naturally, the prospect of passing legislation that would create a guest-worker program for dairy workers who are undocumented—an idea overwhelmingly supported by the industry—is a fantasy in the current environment; Trump, King, and their allies describe such policies as “amnesty.” The Washington debate is completely detached from what is actually going on in places like Sibley.
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a ... alifornia/

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 5:30 pm 
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“Eighty percent of the Latino population out here in northwest Iowa is undocumented,” estimated one dairy farmer in the area who knows the Nunes family and often sees them while buying hay in nearby Rock Valley. “It would be great if we had enough unemployed Americans in northwest Iowa to milk the cows. But there’s just not. We have a very tight labor pool around here.” This person said the system was broken, leaving dairy farmers no choice. “I would love it if all my guys could be legal.”
This is the essence of it, and I've already addressed that. I want Latino people to be able to come to America and either become citizens or work and then go home peaceably. The answer is not getting rid of ICE, open borders, or migrant caravans courtesy of the Democratic Party. Have sensible immigration reform that allows guest workers and managed immigration, so that there is a viable path, and then toss everyone who tries to circumvent it out. There are many countries that have managed this and it's not that complicated if you have centrist, pragmatic political leadership.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 7:12 pm 
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...or migrant caravans courtesy of the Democratic Party
The migrant caravans are there because of the unfolding human tragedy in the shithole countries they are coming from.

The caravan is the worst enemy of the Democratic Party.

My aunt, pretty old now, escaped from East Germany back during the iron curtain days, crossing a river at night in the winter and doing all of that stuff. She has a "been there done that" courage about her that let you know she'd been tested and passed. What these families are doing, walking over a thousand miles with kids through some of the most dangerous places on the planet, with a high expectation of getting barred or arrested or separated at the border...it probably puts some special forces selection programs to shame, apart from the gun slinging. Puts a lot of our country's pussified citizens to shame.

Think of them as walk-ons at football practice. There are some extraordinarily brave winners in there. Sort them out and put the rest on a plane back home.

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PostPosted: Wed Oct 31, 2018 9:43 pm 
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...or migrant caravans courtesy of the Democratic Party
The migrant caravans are there because of the unfolding human tragedy in the shithole countries they are coming from.

The caravan is the worst enemy of the Democratic Party.

My aunt, pretty old now, escaped from East Germany back during the iron curtain days, crossing a river at night in the winter and doing all of that stuff. She has a "been there done that" courage about her that let you know she'd been tested and passed. What these families are doing, walking over a thousand miles with kids through some of the most dangerous places on the planet, with a high expectation of getting barred or arrested or separated at the border...it probably puts some special forces selection programs to shame, apart from the gun slinging. Puts a lot of our country's pussified citizens to shame.

Think of them as walk-ons at football practice. There are some extraordinarily brave winners in there. Sort them out and put the rest on a plane back home.
I don't think romanticizing the situation is helpful. The reality is that the original caravan was put together by opposition politicians in Honduras as a way of destabilizing the local political scene. Source:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_A ... nt_caravan

It has, since then, been further politicized by organizations with political agendas such as Pueblos Sin Fronteras, which provides their buses, food, water, and logistical support--something I doubt your aunt (God bless her) had. As I understand it, PSF is funded by the CARA Family Legal Detention Pro Bono Project, which is comprised of two constituent groups: (i) the Catholic Legal Immigration Network, Inc.; and (ii) the American Immigration Council. Both are funded by the Open Society Institute of George Soros. Source:

http://keywiki.org/Organizations_Funded ... _Institute

Finally, each caravan, if successful, will encourage 1,000 more. They can never be allowed to parade into this country at will, just as you would never let a crowd of strangers parade into your home just because they wanted what you had. That's just common sense.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:42 am 
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I was assured by NPR that the idea that Soros was funding the caravan was a conspiracy theory utterly bereft of any foundation in fact!

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:33 am 
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That kind of analysis doesn't account for subsidies and import restrictions benefiting the dairy industry (there is no real free market for ag in the US) or the other kinds of substitution effects (like the unskilled labor vs. mechanization tradeoff).
It wasn't really an analysis so much as an observation of facts on the ground. Even with subsidies and other benefits, the dairy industry needs to illegal immigrants to make a profit. The market speaks, even in a heavily republican district. Everyone can be all anti-immigrant until you have to sell the family farm when your labor gets deported.
Quote:
Even at a local level the tradeoff is more complicated than that-- undocumented workers do support local economies by patronizing local businesses but are a drain in others (they often live in federally subsidized housing i.e. don't pay property taxes and send their kids to local schools which are primarily paid for by local property taxes)
In this community they are critical.
Quote:
The mayor, though, was impressively enlightened when it came to Sibley’s immigrant population. Perhaps because of the Nunes debacle, he invited me to his office to talk to him and the city administrator, Glenn Anderson. “I told him to go see Nunes, and that didn’t go very good,” he told Anderson as we sat down.

Anderson voted for Trump, but he exploded every Trump myth about immigration. The rise in Sibley’s Hispanic population hasn’t been accompanied by a rise in crime. Most of the crime in Sibley is connected to drug-related traffic stops on Highway 60, he said. Kevin Wollmuth, a deputy in the county sheriff’s office, told me that the rise in immigration “doesn’t have any bearing on our crime rate at all.”

...I hope ICE stays the hell away from Sibley. The immigration system that powers Iowa’s dairies is undoubtedly broken. The dairy owners live with the ever-present fear of becoming the next Mike Millenkamp. The undocumented workers live in the shadows and, especially in the era of Trump and zero tolerance, constantly fear arrest and deportation. Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress, including Devin Nunes (per his CaRepublican website), have decided that unwavering support for ICE is crucial to their efforts to attack Democrats and help the GOP keep control of the House of Representatives after the midterm elections. Naturally, the prospect of passing legislation that would create a guest-worker program for dairy workers who are undocumented—an idea overwhelmingly supported by the industry—is a fantasy in the current environment; Trump, King, and their allies describe such policies as “amnesty.” The Washington debate is completely detached from what is actually going on in places like Sibley.
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a ... alifornia/
LOL at the idea that anyone who writes for Esquire understands the economics of labor at all-- their argument assumes that the dairy industry has no power to increase prices.

The three options that dairy farmers face probably look something like this:
1. Pay labor contractors the equivalent of minimum wage to recruit illegal labor. The illegal labor doesn't get the entire amount. The greater the supply of illegal labor, the more the labor contractor gets to keep. This is the minimum cost option for dairy farmers. Currently, the risk of getting caught and losing your labor in a raid is pretty low. That could change based on enforcement. And if the dairy farmer decides not to pay his labor? They show up anyway hoping to get paid next week, at least for a while.
2. Pay guest workers at least minimum wage, their ability to demand higher wages is largely dependent on guest worker supply. This is a higher cost option for dairy farmers. The risk of losing your labor in a raid is zero.
3. Pay American workers the market rate for temporary work in rural communities. This is the highest cost option partially because they are the least likely to show up for work and the most likely to call in stoned/back hurts/don't need money right now because they gots their EBT money/ don't have a car because it got repo'ed because they used it as collateral to finance a tattoo/morbidly obese and miss work on a regular basis. Their ability to hide from teh popo is the weakest because they are the most likely to be wearing trackers on their ankles.

Costwise, illegal labor wins in a landslide. The guest worker option was tried in the 70's (Cesar Chavez et al...). Facing the risk of strikes and having to pay higher wages, farmers mechanized their operations almost overnight, even though they had to pay 70's interest rates. My hometown went from a community that tripled during the summer to one that didn't even double within one year-- and it wasn't alone. Farmers didn't go broke because of it. The idea that dairy farmers are different has little basis in fact. The support for guest worker programs in the ag sector isn't real.

And FWIW, I'm pretty pro immigration. Facts still matter though.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 7:44 am 
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And FWIW, I'm pretty pro immigration.
To quibble, we are all pro-immigration. The only dialogue is about whether it should be massive and illegal or managed and legal.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:40 am 
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LOL at the idea that anyone who writes for Esquire understands the economics of labor at all-- their argument assumes that the dairy industry has no power to increase prices.

And FWIW, I'm pretty pro immigration. Facts still matter though.
The real factual heart of the article is that in blood red Trumpland, including the area where Nunes’ family owns and runs their farm, the Trump voters rely on illegal immigration for their workforce. Feel free to argue about why they do it.

The market speaks.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 1:41 pm 
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Did they mention at all how dairy prices are so low because we artificially maintain a massive surplus of production? Look up the size of the federal cheese stockpile. It's astounding.

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:08 pm 
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Did they mention at all how dairy prices are so low because we artificially maintain a massive surplus of production? Look up the size of the federal cheese stockpile. It's astounding.
The article wasn't about dairy prices

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 5:59 pm 
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It's as critical to the industry as the price of labor.
You did say " feel free to argue about why they do it."

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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 6:06 pm 
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Did they mention at all how dairy prices are so low because we artificially maintain a massive surplus of production? Look up the size of the federal cheese stockpile. It's astounding.
The article wasn't about dairy prices
When large employers are allowed to pay their employees below minimum wage, they’re utilizing a massive subsidy. Funny how progressives think dopey hipsters should get $20 an hour to make lattes but are cool with brown people getting $4 an hour to work in dairies.

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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:44 pm 
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Interesting article in the Beeb...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46118103
Quote:
Their report found fertility rate falls meant nearly half of countries were now facing a "baby bust" - meaning there are insufficient children to maintain their population size.

The researchers said the findings were a "huge surprise".

And there would be profound consequences for societies with "more grandparents than grandchildren".

Image

Image

Report author Prof Murray argues: "On current trends there will be very few children and lots of people over the age of 65 and that's very difficult to sustain global society.

"Think of all the profound social and economic consequences of a society structured like that with more grandparents than grandchildren.

"I think Japan is very aware of this, they're facing declining populations, but I don't think it's hit many countries in the West, because low fertility has been compensated with migration.

"At a global level there is no migration solution," Prof Murray says.

"But while the change may challenge societies, it may also have environmental benefits given the impact of our species."


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:42 pm 
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That's why all aid to Africa should come in the form of family planning and birth control. Go take a look at life in Niger or Chad and tell me that's what you want for your home state.

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