Wu Flu

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Grandpa's Spells
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:53 pm

Russia is going to get absolutely wrecked on this.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:53 pm
Russia is going to get absolutely wrecked on this.
Go on. What are your contacts in the Russian medical community telling you?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:05 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:53 pm
Russia is going to get absolutely wrecked on this.
Yup
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/24/well ... tizer.html
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:31 pm

Whoops, my bad!

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... ises-model

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve. The model predicted far fewer deaths if lockdown measures — measures such as those taken by the British and American governments — were undertaken.

After just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured.


For reference he has now downgraded his projection for the UK from 500,000 deaths to 20,000 or less. 8-[
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:40 pm

The cool thing with timely actions is you take the edge off of the exponential growth rate, you see huge reductions in the end game. The social distancing seems to work.

There’s so much uncertainty in so many variables, but also clearly the potential for an intolerable shitstorm, that you play it conservative and prep early and often.

The uncertainty distribution of possible outcomes has fat tails. Much like everyone in fatty’s family.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:07 pm

A bushy tail is a sign of good health in felines, thank you very much. That said, history will identify this as a mass hysteria event, far more than a deadly pandemic.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:34 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:03 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:53 pm
Russia is going to get absolutely wrecked on this.
Go on. What are your contacts in the Russian medical community telling you?
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They're saying "He fell." Over and over.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:37 am

Russians have been socially distant since Rurik sailed up the Volkhov.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Luke » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:19 am

Russians also seem the most resistant to giving a fuck about this.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:56 am

Luke wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:19 am
Russians also seem the most resistant to giving a fuck about this.
They have a terrific tolerance to dead Russians.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:48 am

nafod wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:40 pm
The cool thing with timely actions is you take the edge off of the exponential growth rate, you see huge reductions in the end game. The social distancing seems to work.

There’s so much uncertainty in so many variables, but also clearly the potential for an intolerable shitstorm, that you play it conservative and prep early and often.

The uncertainty distribution of possible outcomes has fat tails. Much like everyone in fatty’s family.
I did try and warn you all about this. I fear the States is going to be battered badly by this. Stay safe guys.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:30 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 pm
A lot of fairly senior people are showing their ass on LinkedIn, which surprised me. People very loudly decrying the hoax last week are now sharing articles about how maybe letting everybody get infected isn't so bad. They seem to be going from one position to the next that just-so-happen to have the position of all their people going to work.
This was about 11 days ago and those posts are now deleted.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:44 pm

Nothing like a reality check to snap you out of your Hannity talking points.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:48 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:51 pm
Incredibly promising. And free. The trick is you need everybody to do this, which means you need federal leadership, and Sean Hannity, because even here we're still dealing with people here who think it's a hoax.
There's only so much federal leadership can do given our disjointed federal bureaucracy. Evangelical leaders asking homebound retirees and housewives to start sewing masks would do a lot more in a cheaper and more effective manner.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:12 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:48 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:51 pm
Incredibly promising. And free. The trick is you need everybody to do this, which means you need federal leadership, and Sean Hannity, because even here we're still dealing with people here who think it's a hoax.
There's only so much federal leadership can do given our disjointed federal bureaucracy.
But we're not even doing that.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:30 pm

Yeah, Trump is sending angry tweets to GM and Ford today when he could literally order them to make ventilators. He's fucking this up terribly.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Schlegel » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:03 am

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:30 pm
Yeah, Trump is sending angry tweets to GM and Ford today when he could literally order them to make ventilators. He's fucking this up terribly.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/trump-o ... n-act.html
President Donald Trump has ordered General Motors to make ventilators under the Defense Production Act hours after criticizing the company for not acting quickly enough to produce the devices amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Korean War-era statute can force certain American companies to produce materialsthat are in short supply in the face of the growing outbreak.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:36 am

One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:15 am

Schlegel wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:03 am
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:30 pm
Yeah, Trump is sending angry tweets to GM and Ford today when he could literally order them to make ventilators. He's fucking this up terribly.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/trump-o ... n-act.html
President Donald Trump has ordered General Motors to make ventilators under the Defense Production Act hours after criticizing the company for not acting quickly enough to produce the devices amid the coronavirus pandemic. 

The Korean War-era statute can force certain American companies to produce materialsthat are in short supply in the face of the growing outbreak.
It's almost like Trump sometimes sends tweets as a warning or to test people's reactions before he makes a decision-- almost like it's a pattern and something he's done on a variety of issues for three years or so.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:19 am

Turdacious wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:15 am
It's almost like Trump sometimes sends tweets as a warning or to test people's reactions before he makes a decision-- almost like it's a pattern and something he's done on a variety of issues for three years or so.
Yeah, that's it. Waiting a few weeks to get ventilators going as part of his 16 dimensional chess.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:11 am

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:19 am
Turdacious wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 5:15 am
It's almost like Trump sometimes sends tweets as a warning or to test people's reactions before he makes a decision-- almost like it's a pattern and something he's done on a variety of issues for three years or so.
Yeah, that's it. Waiting a few weeks to get ventilators going as part of his 16 dimensional chess.
Almost like he needed Congress to pass an appropriation first...
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:54 pm

I’m still waiting for the hoax to magically disappear as promised.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:43 pm

Lotta lemons with COVID19, but a little lemonade too:
Chances are, your organization made massive changes due to Coronavirus shelter-in-place and other orders. Some of them should be temporary, but some of the changes should be permanent. Let's look at a few things that have changed.

Destigmatized Working From Home
Jobs that a month ago, managers said could not possibly be done remotely, are now being done from home. While exact numbers aren't available, it is undoubtedly opening managers' eyes to what truly can be done remotely and what needs to be done on-site.

Companies should take note of future Americans with Disabilities Act requests for reasonable accommodations. Working from home can be a reasonable accommodation, and businesses will have a hard time arguing that working in the office is always required when it's not required right now.

Working at home today can impact your business for years to come. Some organizations will learn that they can operate just fine with most people working remotely. Some will discover that things really do work better when they are in the office. Likewise, some employees will rejoice in their 30-second commutes, and others are counting down the days when they can get back to the office.


The Department of Homeland Security temporarily lifted its restrictions for I 9 forms--those are the forms you fill out when you start a new job. You're required to show your identification, in person. Because so many people are working from home, the government is waiving the in-person requirement and allowing verification "over video link, fax, or email, etc." This is set in place temporarily until May 20, 2020, but hopefully, it will stay that way.

Telemedicine opened up when the government decided to allow state-regulated insurance companies to pay for such visits. You want to keep people from catching Coronavirus (or anything else) when visiting a doctor's office, and this can help. But, this also lowers costs and increases flexibility.

Imagine a future where, instead of sitting in a doctor's office waiting room for two hours, you stay at work, and the receptionist calls you and says, "the doctor will see you now." (Of course, this won't work open office environments.) Businesses and individuals look for ways to save money, and this could be one of them.
https://www.inc.com/suzanne-lucas/3-way ... etter.html
Effective for services starting March 6, 2020 and for the duration of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, Medicare will make payment for Medicare telehealth services furnished to patients in broader circumstances.
These visits are considered the same as in-person visits and are paid at the same rate as regular, in-person visits.
Starting March 6, 2020 and for the duration of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, Medicare will make payment for professional services furnished to beneficiaries in all areas of the country in all settings.
While they must generally travel to or be located in certain types of originating sites such as a physician’s office, skilled nursing facility or hospital for the visit, effective for services starting March 6, 2020 and for the duration of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, Medicare will make payment for Medicare telehealth services furnished to beneficiaries in any healthcare facility and in their home.
The Medicare coinsurance and deductible would generally apply to these services. However, the HHS Office of Inspector General (OIG) is providing flexibility for healthcare providers to reduce or waive cost-sharing for telehealth visits paid by federal healthcare programs.
To the extent the 1135 waiver requires an established relationship, HHS will not conduct audits to ensure that such a prior relationship existed for claims submitted during this public health emergency.
https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheet ... fact-sheet
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-car ... id-19-care
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Wild Bill » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:39 pm

DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 2:56 am
Luke wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:19 am
Russians also seem the most resistant to giving a fuck about this.
They have a terrific tolerance to dead Russians.
There are about 11,000 deaths each year from seasonal flue in Russia.
Right now only 4 confirmed deaths from covid19.
The only way to know truth though is wait and then compare 2019 and 2020 statistics.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Wild Bill » Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:46 pm

But still, i am working remotely last two weeks.

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