Wu Flu

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:33 pm

nafod wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:21 pm
Do you think his advice has been followed or ignored?
Define the difference between:

1) Skin in the game

And

2) Selling your book

Edit

"Selling your book" was wrong and misleading. It should have been "talking your book".

End Edit
Last edited by Bennyonesix1 on Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 3:41 pm

The orange man is very very bad tho amirite?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1304 ... 01024.html

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:05 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:33 pm
nafod wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 2:21 pm
Do you think his advice has been followed or ignored?
Define the difference between:

1) Skin in the game

And

2) Selling your book
You are asking me to define the difference between elephants and purple.

He is giving away his most recent book.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.10488
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:22 pm

You can't explain the difference between elephants and purple?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 4:28 pm

Edit

I fucked up. I wrote "selling his book" above when it's "talking your book".

End Edit


Sorry everyone this is tedious. I shouldn't waste everyone's time engaging with that dude. But I did.

To re-iterate, I was wondering how much of Taleb's histrionics were him "selling his book". "Selling your book"/"Talking your book" means pumping your financial positions.

The dude was jetsetting around the globe during a pandemic and also posted absurdist photos of himself in double n95s and goggles in a plane.

These behaviors seem irreconcilable unless he was trying to leverage his notoriety into hysteria tending to increase his profits from financial investments while going about his life as if it were all BS.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:44 pm

You have to acknowledge that we have had these black swans land on us every 12 years or so, like his books predict.

The idea of anti fragile makes sense. A system that is not only robust against the upsets, but needs them to grow and thrive.

When we had lots of small Banks, when a few failed, the system learned and got better. Now that we have too big to fail Banks, a failure brings down the system.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:08 pm

I don't have to acknowledge anything.

I wasn't talking about his theories.

But if they appeal to you, I'm going to assume they're lame.

Also, what little you have said about his theories make me think they are dumb.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:38 pm

I really find this chart fascinating. I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from it yet.

I think everyone knows this by now, but the reports we see in the media of "X number of new deaths reported today" means that the states have gathered together a group of deaths from different dates and reported them in a batch.

So, if 975 "new" deaths are reported tmw, that actually means they are reporting 975 deaths which have occurred on different dates in the past: 175 may have happened in April, 26 in May, 297 in June etc etc (the sum being equal to 975). That's the blue line.

Each death is also theoretically reported with a date-of-death. That allows placement of these "new" deaths in the past. That's the orange line.

So, the final number of deaths in past months is not yet known and won't be for a ling time. Because the reporting system is shit and various other reasons like ppl going back and "matching" death certificates without covid listed as a cause of death with the deceased symptomology and deeming them covid deaths. Why we are doing this in the middle of a PANDEMIC is beyond me, but here we are.

And, as you can see noted on the bottom the certainty with which we know how many have died in any given month increases the further back in time we go. And decreases the closer we move to the present.

Also, this is a CUMULATIVE graph. So each increment of increase in the lines us additive. If the orange line rises from 25,000 to 26,000 from date X to date Y that means the total dead from covid rose 1k not that there 25k died on date X and 26 died on date Y.

We can see that beginning about a month ago the CUMULATIVE number of deaths (orange line) began to treat 200,000 as an approx asymptote. That means the rate of death has been slowing recently.

Anyway, the author argues the blue line (reported deaths) needs to "drop rapidly" (his words) in the "near future" for the two lines (the other being date-of-deaths) to converge at some future point.

I get that after some theoretical point defined as "the total absence of SARS-2 in the US" the lines will eventually meet at the final number of dead.

I just don't understand what it means for the cumulative total of reported deaths (which lag the date-of deaths) to be higher than the cumulative total of date-of deaths. I'd imagine the reported deaths line always stay below the date-of deaths line as they converge on the asymptote.

The two cumulative totals are generated by two different entities. Orange is from CDC and blue is from CTP. Maybe there is some weirdness there?

Idk. First time seeing this representation of the data.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 11:36 pm

Fascinating theory on determining herd immunity levels and total infected for a given region.

https://mobile.twitter.com/gummibear737 ... 7647698945

If I understand (maybe not), at "herd immunity" (hate the term it's very misleading if technically correct) a given region will reach a "stable AB%". And from that it is possible to reverse calculate the total number of infected.

Take New York City (please take it away far away):

Image

We see that the max AB% was 61%. He argues that's not the peak and I think that's fair. It was almost certainly higher in the days just before testing began.

After that, we see AB% drop quickly but stabilize at approx 20%. This he calls (fairly) the "stable AB rate".

A few calcs later and he gets this for the total infected:

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73% is on the very higher end of HErd Immunity projections. Which makes sense due to demographics and population and those damn dirty subways etc etc See prisons etc etc

So, he's established (in a perhaps circular way?) that stable AB% indicates a region has established herd immunity.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:17 am

nafod wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:20 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:05 am
So, Taleb was and is a notorious covid doomer. See photo of him wearing goggles and an N95 and another mask at same time while on a plane (yet still flying because why?).

Has he disclosed his portfolio and investments in stocks that stood and stand to gain from downside risk from covid?


https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp ... ssion=true
He is misunderstood by the majority of the world, in spite of his books.

He is a notorious climate model doomer too, in that he argued in the absence of models to confirm things aren't going to be really really bad, we should assume they will be really really bad. Because it is a potential extinction event.
Taleb is one of those guys who have the answer to every fucking question in the world and will make sure his opinion is known. Which doesn't stop him from saying stupid things either. Absence of evidence versus evidence of absence seems to be his trademark shtick, which he stick to every hole.

He is misunderstood by some, but is really well understood by others who are educated enough to see serious flaws in his musings. As always, there are some good things he said and some really stupid. And when you are wrong and arrogant it does not come across well.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:37 am

Totally reasonable amirite?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:40 am

Sangoma wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:17 am
nafod wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:20 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:05 am
So, Taleb was and is a notorious covid doomer. See photo of him wearing goggles and an N95 and another mask at same time while on a plane (yet still flying because why?).

Has he disclosed his portfolio and investments in stocks that stood and stand to gain from downside risk from covid?


https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp ... ssion=true
He is misunderstood by the majority of the world, in spite of his books.

He is a notorious climate model doomer too, in that he argued in the absence of models to confirm things aren't going to be really really bad, we should assume they will be really really bad. Because it is a potential extinction event.
Taleb is one of those guys who have the answer to every fucking question in the world and will make sure his opinion is known. Which doesn't stop him from saying stupid things either. Absence of evidence versus evidence of absence seems to be his trademark shtick, which he stick to every hole.

He is misunderstood by some, but is really well understood by others who are educated enough to see serious flaws in his musings. As always, there are some good things he said and some really stupid. And when you are wrong and arrogant it does not come across well.
Yeah just not going to take advice from:

1) Military strategy from a Chinese dude

2) Life advice from poker players

3) Long-term societal planning advice from options traders

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Tue Sep 15, 2020 6:54 am

I will disagree with you on No.3. Dealing with uncertainty in trading, any instruments, requires a completely different mind set. You take a view (bullish or bearish) and take the appropriate position. You you are right - enjoy, if not you take a loss and move on. Inability to take a loss, in whichever form, is the source of lots of problems in life.

Curiously, the advantage of options, which is limited downside, can be disadvantageous when dealing with life crises, where downside is undeterminable.

I have a problem with Taleb's narcissism and arrogance. Which regularly lead to methodological errors and ommissions on his part.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:18 am

Biden is completely gorked mentally and an asshole personally and monumentally corrupt politically but I have to give the devil his due: he got me outta taking a mandatory vaccine!

Thanks Joe!

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:34 am

Now I'd take this and ask my mom to take it as well. But fuck your vaccine Gates.

Note: Baric from UNC is involved and if Sars2 was man made he made it. And probably more than one real Cpt Trips.

https://www.upmc.com/media/news/091420- ... -covid-ab8

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:01 am

The data has been crap since the beginning. Both Trump and the Govs just utterly failed to understand what was going on because they didn't demand total focus on clean and thorough data.

Personally, I blame Trump the most as he had the best opportunity to resolve the issue. All he had to do was bring in the best actuaries and create a list of what needed to be reported and when. And then order the states to provide it. He could have maintained federalism by allowing the states to report what they wanted how they wanted and to act in whatever way they thought best. But he could have collected whatever he wanted from the states and forced them to collect it.

https://www.upmc.com/media/news/091420- ... -covid-ab8
As public schools were making plans to reopen in August, errors in the state’s calculations made the COVID-19 outbreak in Texas appear larger than it was, according to new state data released Monday.

On Aug. 11, when the state reported that the percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus peaked at 24.5 percent, the actual rate was 12.5 percent. The metric fluctuated greatly that month as the state identified and began to work through 800,000 backlogged test results — some dating as far back as March — that state officials had initially missed. They blamed coding mishaps for the oversights.

For most days in August, the positivity rate reported by the state was higher than the actual percent of people testing positive. The updated data — based on a new calculation of the dates that tests were conducted rather than the dates that results were reported by labs to the state — shows a steady downward trend in the positivity rate since July, even as schools have begun reopening.

As of Sept. 13 — a week after Labor Day — the positivity rate stood at 6.71 percent, according to the new data. That is the lowest it has been since the first week of June.

COVID CONTAINMENT: Texas teachers report hundreds of COVID safety violations

Abbott has repeatedly touted the positivity rate as a key metric in his reopening decisions, as it should present a current portrait of the pandemic’s spread. He has previously said that a sustained positivity rate below 10 percent could prompt further reopenings statewide, including reopening bars, which have been closed since late June.

The Department of State Health Services on Monday corrected the way it calculated the positivity rate to offer “the most accurate view of the pandemic’s effect over time,” DSHS wrote in a press release announcing the changes. The influx of backlogged test results last month had exposed flaws in the calculation that relied upon the day that tests were reported, since many old positives flooded the system at once.

Both the new and old figures are computed using seven-day averages. The department is still reporting the positivity rate using the old calculation for comparison purposes.

“These enhancements are part of our continuous effort to improve the information we present,” DSHS commissioner John Hellerstedt said in the release. “As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, so must the data we share. Our information must provide the clearest possible picture of what is happening now and what has occurred in the past. The trends in this and other data shape our understanding of what to expect in the future.”

The updated computation also indicates that the state data significantly understated the severity of the outbreak from April to July.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:23 pm

An article on T2 diabetes and obesity wrt bacteria and Covid

The virus itself is relatively benign and non-cytopathic. We know this from experiments and from the age distribution of mortality and the asympto and mild incidence rate.

We also know viral load doesn't correlate well with severity and that the severe symptoms start after the body clears the virus.

So, something else is wrecking the small fraction of ppl who get very ill.

It looks to me like secondary bacterial infections (prob anaerobic) made possible or exacerbated by the virus.

Note: the bradykin storm is often caused by bacterial infections.

https://elifesciences.org/for-the-press ... d-diabetes
The team considered how host bacteria might influence COVID-19 severity. One potential culprit is the lipopolysaccharides (LPS) that bacteria produce, which have been shown to cooperate with other coronaviruses to induce SARS in pigs. It is possible that these LPS molecules join forces with COVID-19 in humans and trigger a chain of events that causes healthy tissue to transform into scarred tissue – as COVID-19 does in the lungs.

“While all of these potential mechanisms can contribute to the severity of COVID-19, we believe that one of them plays the predominant role, and that this must be present not only in obese and diabetic patients, but also in other groups of increased risk in COVID-19,” Scherer explains.

The authors propose that a combined deficiency in ACE2 caused by COVID-19, together with obesity or diabetes, leads to impaired gut barrier function, allowing bacteria and their toxins to leak into the circulation. In the lungs, these bacteria and toxins work with the virus to cause more severe lung injury than either would do alone.

“Our theory is supported by experiments showing that the combination of bacterial and viral infection can lead to a ‘cytokine storm’ – an extreme inflammatory reaction – which is a hallmark of COVID-19”, Scherer concludes. “Moreover, the involvement of viral-bacterial interactions can also explain the increased risk of severe COVID-19 seen in older people, those with heart disease and in some ethnic groups.”

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by theoverman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:16 pm

taleb only pulls like three plates, why would i read black swan
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:25 pm

theoverman wrote:
Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:16 pm
taleb only pulls like three plates, why would i read black swan
FVCKING SCIENCE. This is the most sensible post in this thread.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:48 pm

CDC projected All Cause Mortality updated to end of august. Back to normal. It's projected so CDC is attempting to account for lag.

Looks like lockdown caused 75% of deaths 25-44.

*fauci rubbing hands*

https://mobile.twitter.com/Humble_Analy ... 2877131776

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:37 pm

It's Scotland. Not US. But we clearly need hospital audits here:

https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2020/ ... -covid-19/
Counting people in hospital with COVID-19

September 15, 2020 by Office of the Chief Statistician | Category Uncategorized

We are changing the way we count people in hospital with confirmed COVID-19 as of 15 September 2020. The new figures are lower than the previous published management information and we have a break in the time series. This blog explains why and how.

Current situation

Every day since mid-March, the Scottish Government has been collecting data on the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients in hospital from across NHS Scotland. This data collection was set up quickly to meet an immediate need to understand the impact this new illness was having on our NHS hospitals. It was important to take a pragmatic approach to this in order to avoid any additional work for hospital staff, so while an approach was defined, local areas adopted the best way to extract this from their information systems.

...

Audit findings

The audit of inpatients identified 384 patients in hospital at 1am on 26 August across Scotland who had previously tested positive for COVID-19.

The majority of these patients (87%) were in hospital for a condition unrelated to COVID-19:

45% were hospital onset cases who were no longer being isolated or treated for COVID-19;
25% had recovered from COVID-19, been discharged and then readmitted for an unrelated condition;
9% had a previous positive COVID-19 test in the community, and were admitted for an unrelated reason
8% had been admitted for COVID-19, had recovered but were still in hospital for other reasons.
The audit showed that 8% of patients were either receiving treatment for COVID-19, were in rehabilitation after their treatment for COVID-19 was completed, or were in hospital for COVID-19 related complications. (5% of patients could not be classified into the above categories.)


...

Comparing the initial data, it’s clear to see the impact of the change. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 inpatients under the previous definition was 262 on Tuesday 15th September while the new definition included 48 patients. Of these, 7 were in ICU on the old basis, and 6 under the new definition. We will no longer collect the data on the original basis.

Defining the measures in this way means that the data can be extracted from local information systems without requiring clinical input. This is a pragmatic solution that will ensure we are better placed to capture the impact of the evolution of the pandemic.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Schlegel » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:47 pm

It's seeming pretty well established, though no news source is going to admit it, that deaths have been and are being overcounted. No big time journalist is going to admit this officially until after the election, I wager. Wouldn't want to hurt President Harris's chances.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:11 pm

Schlegel wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:47 pm
It's seeming pretty well established, though no news source is going to admit it, that deaths have been and are being overcounted.
Pretty sure its the opposite. The excess deaths for the year point to an undercount.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:29 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:11 pm
Schlegel wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:47 pm
It's seeming pretty well established, though no news source is going to admit it, that deaths have been and are being overcounted.
Pretty sure its the opposite. The excess deaths for the year point to an undercount.
No.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 3:42 am

Schlegel wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:47 pm
It's seeming pretty well established, though no news source is going to admit it, that deaths have been and are being overcounted. No big time journalist is going to admit this officially until after the election, I wager. Wouldn't want to hurt President Harris's chances.
Deaths from covid are being overcounted.

There are a lot of covid deaths.

But not epochal or really anything really far out of the ordinary. Especially when one removes NY, NJ and PA who made catastrophic policy decisions.

Over the next few years there are going to end up being significantly more deaths from the lockdown than deaths from covid.

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