Wu Flu

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Fat Cat
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:51 am

We're completely fucked and will be for years. No easy way to say it.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Oct 01, 2020 2:27 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:51 am
We're completely fucked and will be for years. No easy way to say it.
What's the local sentiment on the impact of the COVID crisis and the response? I can't imagine the foreign tourism forecast is good.

My area: higher income workers probably better off (gotten comfortable with reducing spending, easier commute, more opportunities to work from home, income on same trajectory, increased opportunities to move to lower cost areas because of remote work opportunities); lower income workers fucked (restaurant and bar jobs either gone or very limited after winter, retail sector hurting, public transit probably going to cut back hard next year, employers will probably realize that there are a lot more workers than vacancies which will kill wages)
"Liberalism is arbitrarily selective in its choice of whose dignity to champion." Adrian Vermeule

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:03 pm

No shit really yellow hat?

Really?

No shit?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Luke » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:06 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:51 am
We're completely fucked and will be for years. No easy way to say it.
Bugger.

Are the people being looked after or do you think it will get ugly? I think about some of those suburbs in the outlying areas of Waikiki.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:52 am

Luke wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 1:06 am
Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:51 am
We're completely fucked and will be for years. No easy way to say it.
Bugger.

Are the people being looked after or do you think it will get ugly? I think about some of those suburbs in the outlying areas of Waikiki.
I'm not exactly sure which neighborhood(s) you're referring to, but yes, it will get ugly. We already have a terrible homeless problem and this has caused mass unemployment, stress, etc. The sooner we open the better but, as you've noted, who's going to come? Hawaiian vacations are a luxury most people can't afford right now. I'm blessed (and armed to the teeth) but it's a trying time for my community. I hope things are better for Australians, you're good people.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:34 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 12:51 am
We're completely fucked and will be for years. No easy way to say it.
Couple of weeks ago I went to the 4WD store to buy some stuff for the upcoming camping trip. The store is located in shopping centre in one of the industrials areas of Sydney, Alexandria. As soon as you enter the shopping centre it hits you: two large stores (one upmarket furniture store, Natuzzi, another - Harvey Norman, one of these places where you buy everything from a battery to furniture, to electronics etc.) are closed. Eerie. Many other shopping malls are way quieter than they used to be.

On the other note, covid has been a gift for the incompetent. In June I had to go to the local bank branch. The local manager couldn't solve my issue and told me to call some number. He himself could not do it because waiting time was expected to be over an hour. In response to my raised eyebrows he said: "You don't understand, this is an extraordinary situation!" Mind you that particular bank made $6 billion in profits the year before. SIX BILLION DOLLARS, and they could not find the means to hire and train locals (who are losing jobs) to answer the phone. I reckon every government in the world is going to ride the covid excuse.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:26 pm

Whoa

Heard that the mortality rate for a mid-70s male with Covid is about 10%.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:59 pm

nafod wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:26 pm
Whoa

Heard that the mortality rate for a mid-70s male with Covid is about 10%.
His risk is higher than that at this point. The steroid can have you hopping around for a while but the real test will be the next two days or so.
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Oct 05, 2020 5:49 pm

Don Jr. was seen renting "Weekend at Bernie's"
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Oct 10, 2020 3:57 pm

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588
Ken Rice, professor of computational astrophysics, Ben Wynne, postdoctoral researcher, Victoria Martin, professor of collider physics, Graeme J Ackland, professor of computer simulation
Author affiliations
Correspondence to: G J Ackland gjackland@ed.ac.uk
Accepted 15 September 2020
Abstract

Objective

To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom.

Design

Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London’s individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic.

Setting

Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

Population

About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours.

Main outcome measures

Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures.

Results

The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.

Conclusions

It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:05 pm

https://nypost.com/2020/10/11/who-warns ... ic-damage/

WHO warns against COVID-19 lockdowns due to economic damage

The World Health Organization has warned leaders against relying on COVID-19 lockdowns to tackle outbreaks — after previously saying countries should be careful how quickly they re-open.

WHO envoy Dr. David Nabarro said that such restrictive measures should only be treated as a last resort, the British magazine The Spectator reported in a video interview.

“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Nabarro said.

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

Nabarro said that there’s significant harm caused by tight restrictions, particularly on the global economy.

“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,” he said.

He added that lockdowns have severely impacted countries that rely on tourism.

“Just look at what’s happened to the tourism industry in the Caribbean, for example, or in the Pacific because people aren’t taking their holidays,” Nabarro told the outlet.

“Look what’s happened to smallholder farmers all over the world. Look what’s happening to poverty levels. It seems that we may well have a doubling of world poverty by next year. We may well have at least a doubling of child malnutrition.”

The UN agency previously warned countries against lifting lockdowns too soon during the first wave of the virus.

“The last thing any country needs is to open schools and businesses, only to be forced to close them again because of a resurgence,” said Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

But Tedros had urged countries to bolster other measures, including widespread testing and contact tracing, so they could safely reopen and avoid future lockdowns.

“We need to reach a sustainable situation where we have adequate control of this virus without shutting down our lives entirely, or lurching from lockdown to lockdown — which has a hugely detrimental impact on societies,” he said.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:26 pm

I thought talking about economics was murder?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:28 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:26 pm
I thought talking about economics was murder?
Only when it comes from the right. :rolleyes:
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:39 pm

Fascinating paper. Crucial reading. Takeaways: 1) second much smaller wave coming in Europe 2) a 77% effective vaccine can still help if delivered very soon (but 77% is lmao no way) and 3) lockdowns kill many more ppl and we need corona parties among the healthy.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20210146v1

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:40 am

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_fir ... 265892.pdf
Infection fatality rate of COVID-19 inferred from seroprevalence data
John P A Ioannidisa
a Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, 1265 Welch Road, Stanford, California 94305, United States of America.
Correspondence to John P A Ioannidis (email: jioannid@stanford.edu).
(Submitted: 13 May 2020 – Revised version received: 13 September 2020 – Accepted: 15 September 2020 – Published online: 14 October 2020)
Abstract
Objective To estimate the infection fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)from seroprevalence data.
The median infection fatality rate across all 51 locations was 0.27% (corrected 0.23%). Most data came from locations with high death tolls from COVID-19 and 32 of the locations had a population mortality rate (COVID-19 deaths per million population) higher than the global average (118 deaths from COVID-19 per million as of 12 September 2020;79 Fig. 3). Uncorrected estimates of the infection fatality rate of COVID-19 ranged from 0.01% to 0.67% (median 0.10%) across the 19 locations with a population mortality rate for COVID-19 lower than the global average, from 0.07% to 0.73% (median 0.20%) across 17 locations with population mortality rate higher than the global average but lower than 500 COVID-19 deaths per million, and from 0.20% to 1.63% (median 0.71%) across 15 locations with more than 500 COVID-19 deaths per million. The corrected estimates of the median infection fatality rate were 0.09%, 0.20% and 0.57%, respectively, for the three location groups.
For people < 70 years old, the infection fatality rate of COVId-19 across 40 locations with available data ranged from 0.00% to 0.31% (median 0.05%); the corrected values were similar.
Acknowledging these limitations, based on the currently available data, one may project that over half a billion people have been infected as of 12 September, 2020, far more than the approximately 29 million documented laboratory-confirmed cases. Most locations probably have an infection fatality rate less than 0.20% and with appropriate, precise non-pharmacological measures that selectively try to protect high-risk vulnerable populations and settings, the infection fatality rate may be brought even lower.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:36 pm

Just to be clear the above means it's the flu absent catastrophic policy decisions made by Italy and the Cuomo coalition in the North East.

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