Wu Flu

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Sangoma
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:36 am

Now it's all clear: the virus has been manufactured by the Muslims - who don't use toilet paper - to create world wide shortage of it.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:37 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 am


This is the best overview I've seen or heard (there's some good info at the CIDRAP website too, but its serially disorganized). For most of us here-- not really at severe risk and neither are our kids. Our parents on the other hand are a different story. Old age plus other risk factors (obesity, upper respiratory issues, high blood pressure, smoking, heart disease, etc...) increase risk of death and severe sickness significantly.
That was excellent.

What really caught my ear, was obesity as a comorbidity. The US of A is at risk for that one.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Sat Mar 14, 2020 3:57 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:09 am
They're not going to shut off the goddamn water. Jesus Christ.
It's fucking insane. Has Hawaii had a run on the markets yet?

I was out last night just trying to do normal for the week shopping. Shelves completely bare of bread, all toilet paper and paper towels, cleaning supplies. All meat gone except for some corned beef. All beans, rice, etc. All frozen veggies.

But the all the canned veggies were still there and the produce section was still completely stocked.

Milk was going fast. I saw one bitch with her cart full of milk. 10 gallons.

Funny...there was one woman who had a face mask on. I was watching her touch everything in the store. She ran into a friend and the first thing she does? Reach to her face with her dirty ass hands and take the mask off to talk. :rolleyes:

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by motherjuggs&speed » Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:03 pm

I went to the store Tuesday -- normal. Last night they were slam out of the above items and soap and countertop cleaner. I admit I panic bought a little more than I needed to store in my chest freezer. Also the parking lot was full of RVs since they closed the state park to overnight camping.

It's also not really clear what the right response should be. Maybe we should all say fuck it and get sick and then be over it in two months.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:20 pm

motherjuggs&speed wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 4:03 pm
I went to the store Tuesday -- normal. Last night they were slam out of the above items and soap and countertop cleaner. I admit I panic bought a little more than I needed to store in my chest freezer. Also the parking lot was full of RVs since they closed the state park to overnight camping.

It's also not really clear what the right response should be. Maybe we should all say fuck it and get sick and then be over it in two months.
I have a friend who has asthma and some other respiratory issues. She is dead set convinced that the best thing for her is to get the virus right now so that if she develops problems there will be ventilators available.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by dingleberry » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:32 pm

Buy bullets that way when you want something you can go get it next door.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:55 pm

newguy wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 5:20 pm
I have a friend who has asthma and some other respiratory issues. She is dead set convinced that the best thing for her is to get the virus right now so that if she develops problems there will be ventilators available.
Maybe smart? Actually, I think it is too late. She'd just be part of the wave.

Since kids can catch it but not get too much sick, they just become super spreaders. I had the idea of free summer camp for them this year. They all go play all summer in the Poconos, get the flu, get immune, and then come home, helping to establish herd immunity.

My other idea is a bar just for Covid-19 patients. You want to drink, you already have it, come hang with the rest of your wheezing buddies and not feel bad about being contagious. To get in you have to show proof of a positive test.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:00 pm

There’s no need for pages and pages of discussion. The Chinese have already proved without a shadow of a doubt that the solution is for everyone to shut themselves indoors until its gone.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Sun Mar 15, 2020 12:44 am

dingleberry wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:32 pm
Buy bullets that way when you want something you can go get it next door.
Those sold out before the toilet paper.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:05 am

Images from the airports are quite bad, ORD especially.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:18 am

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:05 am
Images from the airports are quite bad, ORD especially.
Looks like the conga line at MarA Lago

A fun and interesting epidemiology problem would be to take the number that popped positive in the screening and estimate how many they infected while standing in line to be screened.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:37 am

Gav wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:00 pm
There’s no need for pages and pages of discussion. The Chinese have already proved without a shadow of a doubt that the solution is for everyone to shut themselves indoors until its gone.
For now. There's data that the virus can survive on surfaces for longer than 14 days. Will it start recirculating when isolation ends - helpfully. But no guarantee.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am

This is pretty much my point of view. I rather get take my chances and get sick, preferably in the early stages of the epidemic. Become immune (very likely), not worry about it and be useful in dealing with the outbreak. Rather than trying to dodge it, which in my line of work is not very realistic.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/h ... a5h.html
In crude terms, Boris Johnson's government is mounting the argument that the outbreak is now so far gone that it is actually desirable for people to get infected. And a lot of people – potentially up to 70 per cent of the country's population, or roughly 47 million.

A risky strategy? Very. At complete odds with the rest of the globe and the World Health Organisation? Definitely. Politically unpopular? Absolutely. But sensible? Quite possibly.

Britain's approach has three core elements: enact social distancing measures much more slowly than other countries; shield at-risk groups like the elderly and sick from contact with the general population; and then let COVID-19 slowly sweep through everybody else.

The latter approach is called "herd immunity" – a phrase likely to enter the lexicon shortly in the same way as "flatten the curve". Herd immunity describes a scenario where so many people become resistant to a disease – either through vaccinations or exposure – that it becomes much harder for the virus to spread through the rest of the population. Mass immunity could effectively cause the virus to burn out over the course of one or two seasons, or buy time until a vaccine is developed and distributed.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:56 pm

Gav wrote:
Sat Mar 14, 2020 10:00 pm
There’s no need for pages and pages of discussion. The Chinese have already proved without a shadow of a doubt that the solution is for everyone to shut themselves indoors until its gone.
My question here is what does "gone" mean?

Is that how viruses really work? They really just go away?

Because with something this infectious (and it seems to be really infectious) all it takes is a few cases and then you you have an outbreak.

So we all hunker down. It dies down. Then we all go back out and those of us who haven't had it just start getting sick again and it spreads.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:09 pm

What you have to do is to get the spread rate R down below 1. Right now it is between 2 and 4, which means each sick person infects 2 to 4 other folks.

When it gets below 1, then it exponentially dies out. When it is gone, it is gone. If it is mostly gone, then you can use typical immediate quarantine and contact tracing to beat down the individual pop ups.

The way to get it below 1 is social distancing, or to follow Sangoma and just have everyone go ahead and get sick all at once.

The Chinese are now blocking flights back into China for the reason you bring up, though. Most of their new sick people are overseas arrivals.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Sun Mar 15, 2020 5:10 pm

Sangoma wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am
This is pretty much my point of view. I rather get take my chances and get sick, preferably in the early stages of the epidemic. Become immune (very likely), not worry about it and be useful in dealing with the outbreak. Rather than trying to dodge it, which in my line of work is not very realistic.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/h ... a5h.html
In crude terms, Boris Johnson's government is mounting the argument that the outbreak is now so far gone that it is actually desirable for people to get infected. And a lot of people – potentially up to 70 per cent of the country's population, or roughly 47 million.

A risky strategy? Very. At complete odds with the rest of the globe and the World Health Organisation? Definitely. Politically unpopular? Absolutely. But sensible? Quite possibly.

Britain's approach has three core elements: enact social distancing measures much more slowly than other countries; shield at-risk groups like the elderly and sick from contact with the general population; and then let COVID-19 slowly sweep through everybody else.

The latter approach is called "herd immunity" – a phrase likely to enter the lexicon shortly in the same way as "flatten the curve". Herd immunity describes a scenario where so many people become resistant to a disease – either through vaccinations or exposure – that it becomes much harder for the virus to spread through the rest of the population. Mass immunity could effectively cause the virus to burn out over the course of one or two seasons, or buy time until a vaccine is developed and distributed.
All fine and dandy until it mutates.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by motherjuggs&speed » Sun Mar 15, 2020 6:40 pm

Sangoma wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:46 am
This is pretty much my point of view. I rather get take my chances and get sick, preferably in the early stages of the epidemic. Become immune (very likely), not worry about it and be useful in dealing with the outbreak. Rather than trying to dodge it, which in my line of work is not very realistic.
I had been thinking to go get stuff done before the big outbreak here (NM), then hole up as much as possible. Then today I thought, "I'm not sick now, so maybe I should just stay unsick", and now I'm wondering again. My history shows that I don't get sick almost ever so maybe I should risk it. But then there's not becoming a carrier (if I haven't already).

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:54 am

We just had all of our bars closed and restaurant capacity cut in half. I'm thinking the restaurants won't last much longer.

This has all moved really fast. I'm in education. On Thursday I was in a conference call where leadership was stressing schools were to remain open. Friday everybody closed for at least two weeks and none of us think we are going to be closed for only two weeks.

Our amount of cases still seems really low but I don't know how much we are testing.

And I guess that if you are going to shut down, you want to do it now when the cases are first appearing and not later.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 am

My step brother lives in Tenerife, they have total lockdown from today. He sent me videos - police cars driving along the pavements and chasing people off the streets. Now Australia is talking about the lockdown.

I was planning to revive my epidural website and start a Youtube channel. I am likely to have too much time on my hands I should probably start doing it today. First video - coronavirus in pregnancy.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Luke » Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:07 am

Sangoma wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 am
My step brother lives in Tenerife, they have total lockdown from today. He sent me videos - police cars driving along the pavements and chasing people off the streets. Now Australia is talking about the lockdown.

I was planning to revive my epidural website and start a Youtube channel. I am likely to have too much time on my hands I should probably start doing it today. First video - coronavirus in pregnancy.
I just got sent home from work. Concerned my gyms will be next...it's been one of the few things keeping me sane this year. Every lift has been progressing and one of the few periods I haven't had to take time off for injury or otherwise since the start of 2018. Of course this would happen once I can see clear daylight.

Hopefully not.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:10 pm

Luke wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 5:07 am
Sangoma wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 am
My step brother lives in Tenerife, they have total lockdown from today. He sent me videos - police cars driving along the pavements and chasing people off the streets. Now Australia is talking about the lockdown.

I was planning to revive my epidural website and start a Youtube channel. I am likely to have too much time on my hands I should probably start doing it today. First video - coronavirus in pregnancy.
I just got sent home from work. Concerned my gyms will be next...it's been one of the few things keeping me sane this year. Every lift has been progressing and one of the few periods I haven't had to take time off for injury or otherwise since the start of 2018. Of course this would happen once I can see clear daylight.

Hopefully not.
Oh it's going to happen.

At this point the pattern is clear.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:11 pm

Gyms are petri dishes.

I've been going to my gym and using the heavy bag a few times a week. Shifting to outdoors biking and paddling, etc.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Schlegel » Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:17 pm

Classes are cancelled or online, but the university daycare is still running here, so I can still come into the lab some, but I really expect a closure soon. Preschoolers are just too effective a vector.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by aussie luke » Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:33 pm

Few random thoughts and thing I’ve learned from ‘the internet’ the past few days:

Kids seem to either not get it or have very few symptoms. But also the less symptomatic you are the less contagious you are - so maybe kids aren’t super spreaders at all?

As a dad of two primary school kids and a baby, I’m more worried about me going to my office every day and bringing it home, than the kids going to school. My office is working too slowly towards getting everyone working from home, but that will happen soon.

Many parents are choosing not to send their kids in to school, which instantly makes the school safer for my kids.

Here in Perth, Australia there are now 28 confirmed cases out of over 6000 tested. All are people who have just flown in from overseas or been on a cruise ship. At least one is better already. Only one person is in hospital with it. The rest just isolated at home.

It is spreading through communities in more populated parts of Australia though, which seems to destroy the theory that it it will be killed of by the warmer weather as to (in the US) head into spring?

I am thinking/hoping that this week will see the end of the fucking ridiculous toilet paper shortage and the over hoarding of food, since most of the fuckers who went OTT will have no space or money left for even more stuff, and the supply chain will catch up since stores no doubt started ordering more stock a week or so ago and there is no actual shortage of food or products or production.

It’s a good time to train with kettlebells - I use one and a pull-up bar in the office gym and wipe both with alcohol wipes before and after and don’t touch anything else. I have kids at home that I will use if and when I start working from home. It’s enough to stop me going mental.

Lastly although a vaccine is going to be a long way off, seems antivirals are being tried and tested already and could be an effective way to protect the elderly and the vulnerable, while letting the rest of it get it and get over it

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:22 pm

Whitey is trying to stop me from finishing my one mile swim program this week.

A lot of fairly senior people are showing their ass on LinkedIn, which surprised me. People very loudly decrying the hoax last week are now sharing articles about how maybe letting everybody get infected isn't so bad. They seem to be going from one position to the next that just-so-happen to have the position of all their people going to work.

Qatar and Southern Hemisphere seem to be having standard spread so hot weather will not help us.

It is good to see state and local people stepping up in leadership missing from the federal government.

Fuck Mitch McConnell.

We need to gear up industry to develop PPE for healthcare people and ventilators. Ideally this would come from Federal powers but I don't know what it's going to take.
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