Wu Flu

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:21 pm

Why did Taiwan crush the virus and fully open back up using masks, testing, and care? And I mean not like Sweden with their death rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7270822/
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:22 pm

Cringe userid but he's good. And something to think about:

"Gummi Bear
@gummibear737
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3h
Asked all my co-workers / friends if they’ve gotten sick (any type) since March

Every single person said no - their acquaintances said the same

This will continue for many months

This is a social experiment on a mass scale with outcomes we cannot predict

There’s no precedent"

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:25 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:21 pm
Why did Taiwan crush the virus and fully open back up using masks, testing, and care? And I mean not like Sweden with their death rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7270822/
Cross immunity at tcell level from other corona viruses.

They likely had same exposure re: infections but deaths were less (like all SE Asia) because of cross immunity.

And Sweden openly admits the death rate (as with NY and affiliated states in the NE and Mid-atlantic) was caused by shit care in LTC (somalis lol).

You fail to maintain conceptual awareness of different categories (deaths vs cases) and levels of abstraction.

The sero-prevalence level for immunity (not the common world definition) is 20%. Tcell cross-immmunity also explains India's infection exposure without NY and affiliated state death toll.

The central question everyone must answer is: did NY and affiliated states do nothing wrong or did they do something wrong?

The answer is obvious btw: they did something wrong.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:09 am

"Matt Malkus
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Overdoses up 40% in Nashville. That equates to 55 excess overdose deaths during the lockdown, mostly of younger people with many years of life left ahead of them.

Number of COVID-19 deaths in Nashville under age 45: 3."

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:40 am

nafod wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:21 pm
Why did Taiwan crush the virus and fully open back up using masks, testing, and care? And I mean not like Sweden with their death rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7270822/
You are not grasping the difference between correlation and causation. It makes it hard to discuss these things with you. There is near universal, and mandatory, masking in Japan and they are at an all-time high. Repeat after me, "everybody is going to get coronavirus." Because even if the mask was 100% effective, as soon as people take them off, the virus will spread. Are you really arguing for lifetime mandated masking, social distancing, etc.?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:21 am

This is fascinating and crucial reading. We don't know much of anything about how the flu and other similar viruses work on the "real world" level of abstraction. What we pretend to know is make believe extrapolations and likely stories. See the section on the attempts to transmit the Spanish Flu. It's incredible and we have become a weak and debased race of men thanks to HR and facebook.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2279112/

However, I think we can say these viruses are everywhere and that outbreaks are not a case of sick to well transmission across continental distances but something else. Something more like a latent condition in the population being triggered by Environment (maybe low vitD as a result of seasonal changes but who tf knows?).

This needs to be explained somehow

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/amp/arg ... ssion=true
Last edited by Bennyonesix1 on Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:35 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:27 am

Hard talking to a quitter who’s already given up, but...

The 1918 pandemic didn’t infect everybody, yet it went away.

The virus disappears when we drive R0 < 1, then it infects fewer people each day. Masks, social distancing, and test/tracing help to drop R0 < 1. It’s that simple.

And there’s vaccines in the works. By January you’ll be able to get your shot in the ass and then eat a test tube full of the virus.

I don’t know why Japan is fucking up now. Probably a karaoke super spreader.

Benny, that is actually interesting.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:51 am

nafod wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:27 am
Hard talking to a quitter who’s already given up, but...

The 1918 pandemic didn’t infect everybody, yet it went away.

The virus disappears when we drive R0 < 1, then it infects fewer people each day. Masks, social distancing, and test/tracing help to drop R0 < 1. It’s that simple.

And there’s vaccines in the works. By January you’ll be able to get your shot in the ass and then eat a test tube full of the virus.

I don’t know why Japan is fucking up now. Probably a karaoke super spreader.

Benny, that is actually interesting.
Is there a solid consensus as to why it went away when it did? I certainly don't know the answer. Farr's law perhaps???

At least in my locality, lockdowns and masking were of a much shorter duration with the Spanish flu than with this virus. Deaths were 550+/- from Oct-Mar in 1918-19 but most were in Sep-Oct. This time we have 119 from Mar-Jul. Considering the poorer sanitation, closer living conditions, and the primitive medicine of 1918, the 1918 & 2020 numbers may be closer than they appear. My example is for just one county and shouldn't be extrapolated too much but it's interesting to compare then to now.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:02 am

Dude Nafod you don't understand how viruses work. The population's homogeneity Wrt to infectivity and susceptibility determines the amount of exposure to the virus that is required to stop the spread. A 100% homogenous population with respect to infectivity and susceptibility would need a 100% spread before the disease stopped. As heterogeneity increases, the amount of the population that has to get the disease before "immunity" kicks in decreases. Until a 100% heterogenous population has no spread.

Heterogeneity is either innate or acquired via exposure and subsequent immunity.

The Spanish Flu had a given threshold based on the above and when it reached that, it stopped. There have been no viruses for which the population was 100% homogenous. Therefore, they all stop after some amount of spread and subsequent heterogeneity.

We know that prior exposure to other coronaviruses and SARS2 causes immunity to SARS2 on the tcell level for +17 mnths. And that anti-bodies developed after exposure last for approx 6 mnths. These are additive because they are independent systems.

It has benfound that a sero-prevalence of 20% (anti-bodies) is the level of population heterogeneity required to provide "herd"immunity. And this is because there is between 40-60% innate immunity via tcell cross exposure to other coronaviruses.

You can have all the preventative measures you want (real and imaginary) but we're going to 20% sero-prevalence at some point.

And your vaccine is a pipe-dream. At best it will fractionally reduce the amount of exposure required. But there will still be some level of exposure required.

And even then there will always be some residual amount of SARS2 around. It will never go to zero. And it will come back in a lesser form every year from now on.

SARS2 isn't polio and if you think it is and the vaccine will eradicate it you are just simply wrong.

PS. Thank god this isn't Capt Trips and it's just a bad flu if we don't do what fucking greasy Cuomo and his associate Govs did.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:17 am

For fuck sake Nafod stop talking out of your ass for one god damn day. Jesus fucking christ. None of us are impressed with you. None of us. We just don't care. Stop spouting the same bullshit we hear ever damn day from the media. We've fucking heard it. Go a little deeper. Read a god damn science paper. Listen to a dissident and think about what his argument is. Everyone knkws what you are going to say because it is the standard line all the apparatchiks put out.

WE FUCKING KNOW THE HR LADIES LOVE YOU BECAUSE OF THE WAY YOU THINK.

WE FUCKING KNOW YOU HATE WHITE TRASH MIDDLE AMERICANS.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:02 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:25 pm
nafod wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:21 pm
Why did Taiwan crush the virus and fully open back up using masks, testing, and care? And I mean not like Sweden with their death rate.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7270822/
Cross immunity at tcell level from other corona viruses.

They likely had same exposure re: infections but deaths were less (like all SE Asia) because of cross immunity.

And Sweden openly admits the death rate (as with NY and affiliated states in the NE and Mid-atlantic) was caused by shit care in LTC (somalis lol).

You fail to maintain conceptual awareness of different categories (deaths vs cases) and levels of abstraction.

The sero-prevalence level for immunity (not the common world definition) is 20%. Tcell cross-immmunity also explains India's infection exposure without NY and affiliated state death toll.

The central question everyone must answer is: did NY and affiliated states do nothing wrong or did they do something wrong?

The answer is obvious btw: they did something wrong.
A less likely but still related theoretical possibility is that there was a SARS1.5 that spread earlier and provided tcell immunity.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2007.07154

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:14 am

https://youtu.be/jeN8v5I5VNA

Good 101 on 3 levels of immunity.

Made by a jap lady so it's good.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:55 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:09 pm
Turdacious wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 9:20 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 7:14 pm
What troubles me extremely from the scientifical modelers is the complete lack of interest in the inevitable dire cost to society of ignoring lockdown related mental health, untreated diseases, and other deaths, along with the cost of generational poverty. It's derelict not to make this part of the national conversation.
I'm not certain there was a lack of interest, although they were certainly more interested in stopping the pandemic than anything else. There was awareness that the global PPE, ventilator, and ICU bed shortages were game stopping bottlenecks-- NYC seemed to be ground zero for that. Slowing the spread to a more manageable levels limited the risk of those problems overwhelming the health care system. Maybe I've missed it, but nobody seems to have done a serious model of what would have happened if we'd done nothing.

It didn't help that the modelers were dealing with a lot of unknowns (in large part because of China's lies).
Did nothing? That's maximally tendentious. A statement made purely to cloud things and make a good faith interlocutor work to even start really talking. A tax for daring to not toe the line of your preferred policy preferences.
Lol. My preferred policy preference is to stay below the PPE, ICU bed,and ventilator capacities in each area (Local hospital + VA overflow capacity). As the PPE and ventilator supplies grow, those thresholds change. Policies to effectively monitor and segregate the most vulnerable change things. A vaccine changes the calculations too.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:01 pm

Typical. You either didn't understand or chose to be non-responsive.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:22 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:02 am
Dude Nafod you don't understand how viruses work. The population's homogeneity Wrt to infectivity and susceptibility determines the amount of exposure to the virus that is required to stop the spread. A 100% homogenous population with respect to infectivity and susceptibility would need a 100% spread before the disease stopped.
Uhhh, no.

Dude, you don't understand how viruses work, or how any kind of contagion in a network works.

The spread is a function of a bunch of things, including biological (I am or am not immune to it), environmental (sitting in the sun in the wind -vs- sitting in a bar with shitty HVAC and without masks), and behavioral (reducing the network of interaction between carriers).

It's basically a thing that goes from node to node in a network with constantly changing connections, and where it has a fixed time at each node to infect another node. The fixed time is critical. The virus has to make the jump before it is killed off, unlike a virus that turns people into zombies.

Unless it is a "fully meshed graph" where everyone directly connects to everyone in one hop, it's actually hard to get everyone infected. That's why there is herd immunity.

Our behavior plays as big a role as the biology of the virus does in figuring out how big of a herd we need to get that herd immunity.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:44 pm

You just restated what I said though?

But added some bullshit pseudo tech Silicon Valley conceptual over-lay that just confuses things.

And conflated temporary measures with long-term conditions.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:51 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:01 pm
Typical. You either didn't understand or chose to be non-responsive.
Meh. You're trying too hard today.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:51 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:44 pm
You just restated what I said though?
You're right, I did restate it, upon further review. Doh.

But if R0 <1 and we keep it there, it goes away forever (unless there is some reservoir pumping it back in...like bats or domestic animals).

If we could give everyone two week's supply of MREs and beer and had them go camping by themselves, it'd be gone at the end of the two weeks and we'd be done with it, bars open everywhere.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:18 pm

https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/amp/arg ... ssion=true

It's not going away. It's here forever. Just like the other corona viruses and the various Influenzas.

Where would the global population go camping by themselves anyway?

And how many would die out there on those trips?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm

If you're in favor of the general pop wearing cloth facemasks you need to deal with this math somehow.

"Non-medical facemasks include a variety of products. There is no reliable evidence of the effectiveness of non-medical facemasks in community settings. There is likely to be sub- stantial variation in effectiveness between products. However, there is only limited evi- dence from laboratory studies of potential differences in effectiveness when different prod- ucts are used in the community.

Given the low prevalence of COVID-19 currently, even if facemasks are assumed to be ef- fective, the difference in infection rates between using facemasks and not using facemasks would be small. Assuming that 20% of people infectious with SARS-CoV-2 do not have symptoms, and assuming a risk reduction of 40% for wearing facemask, 200 000 people would need to wear facemasks to prevent one new infection per week in the current epide-miological situation."

https://www.fhi.no/globalassets/dokumen ... t-2020.pdf

PS if you want to absolutely lose your mind. Look up the NNT for whatever drugs your MD has you and your family on.

https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-nee ... treat-nnt/

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:45 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm
If you're in favor of the general pop wearing cloth facemasks you need to deal with this math somehow.
The paper makes sense, in that Norway has crushed the pandemic. If no one is a carrier, masks won't do much. From the conclusion of the doc...

"In the current epidemiological situation in Norway, wearing face masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19is not recommended for individuals in the community without respiratory symptomswho are not in near contact with peoplewho are known to be infected. If the epidemiological situation worsens substantially in a geographical area, the use of facemasks as a precautionary measure should be reconsidered."

Here's a baseball game in Taiwan, 11 July. Note the lack of masks. Again, if no one has it...

Image
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:46 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm
If you're in favor of the general pop wearing cloth facemasks you need to deal with this math somehow.

"Non-medical facemasks include a variety of products. There is no reliable evidence of the effectiveness of non-medical facemasks in community settings. There is likely to be sub- stantial variation in effectiveness between products. However, there is only limited evi- dence from laboratory studies of potential differences in effectiveness when different prod- ucts are used in the community.

Given the low prevalence of COVID-19 currently, even if facemasks are assumed to be ef- fective, the difference in infection rates between using facemasks and not using facemasks would be small. Assuming that 20% of people infectious with SARS-CoV-2 do not have symptoms, and assuming a risk reduction of 40% for wearing facemask, 200 000 people would need to wear facemasks to prevent one new infection per week in the current epide-miological situation."

https://www.fhi.no/globalassets/dokumen ... t-2020.pdf

PS if you want to absolutely lose your mind. Look up the NNT for whatever drugs your MD has you and your family on.

https://www.cebm.net/2014/03/number-nee ... treat-nnt/
The US COVID19 death rate is nearly 10x what Norway's is.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

From the conclusions part of the paper (which you obviously didn't read):
3.The use of facemasks by the public may be advisable in some situations.
Despite uncertainty about whether the benefits would outweigh the harms and costs, if in-fection rates go upor widespread community transmission occurs, facemasks should be considered as a precautionary measure in situations where it is difficult to adhere to social distancing. This includes in:Public transportation like busses, trams, trains, and airplanesPublic spaces like shops, restaurants, and communication hubsMass events, like cultural, religious and sports events, and other public events, in con-cert halls, cinemas, sports arenas, houses of worship and public hallsThe primary purpose of wearing a facemask in the community is to protect others.The primary purpose of wearing a facemask in situations where social distancing is difficult is for people who are infectious but do not have symptoms and do not know they are infec-tious to wear facemasks to prevent them from transmitting the virus to others (source con-trol). For vulnerable populations, wearing facemasks may also protect the wearer against infection.The advisability of using facemasks inthe community depends on the risk of infection.The epidemiological situation plays a major role in determining when facemasks should be worn in the community. The threshold for when to recommend using facemasks in areas of community transmission depends on several factors. WHO has defined geographical areas 21with community transmission as “experiencing larger outbreaks of local transmission de-fined through an assessment of factors including, but not limited to: large numbers of cases not linkable to transmission chains; large numbers of cases from sentinel surveillance; and/or multiple unrelated clusters in several areas of the country/territory/area” (https://www.who.int/publications-detail ... m-guidance). These are factors which NIPH is moni-toring closely.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:55 pm

None of the four Nords backed masks. Why?

Prevalence means infections not deaths.

What was the issue with the math?

Edit

Ack. This is why one must be careful to not engage with ppl like you. Manipulative disingenuous ppl.

The answer is because of the word "assumed". None of them assumed the prophylactic benefit existed. And for good reason. Because there isn't any.

But, there is a solid test underway up there and it should be released soon. And they aren't beholden to group think.

And of course, it's perfectly clear I post things without reading them. I'm continually caught out by you.
Last edited by Bennyonesix1 on Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:01 pm

nafod wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 3:45 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 2:30 pm
If you're in favor of the general pop wearing cloth facemasks you need to deal with this math somehow.
The paper makes sense, in that Norway has crushed the pandemic. If no one is a carrier, masks won't do much. From the conclusion of the doc...

"In the current epidemiological situation in Norway, wearing face masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19is not recommended for individuals in the community without respiratory symptomswho are not in near contact with peoplewho are known to be infected. If the epidemiological situation worsens substantially in a geographical area, the use of facemasks as a precautionary measure should be reconsidered."

Here's a baseball game in Taiwan, 11 July. Note the lack of masks. Again, if no one has it...

Image
Again. None of the Nords used masks. Why not?

And Taiwan tested 3.4k per million. US 136k per million.

Stop using the phrase "crushed the virus" it's meaningless and just signaling your allegiance to one side of the debate.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:30 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:01 pm
Again. None of the Nords used masks. Why not?
They had a pretty full-on draconian lockdown.

The physics on masks keeping your spew close to you and away from folks is solid. I see it as belt and suspenders. Keep your distance, but also wear a mask. A 40% effectiveness makes a big difference on R0.

We have a requirement for wearing masks in stores that is complied with maybe 50-80%, by personal observation. My wife was at Walmart the other day, where they have some old guy at the door now to make sure people comply with their new rule. Some dude in a wife-beater with squaw and shortie in tow shows up, gives the old man the finger, and cruises by maskless. I wanted to spray him in the face with hand cleaner, and I wasn't even there.

I'm at the "fuck it, let it wash over us" stage, frankly. We deserve it. Feel bad for the low income who have to work and interact with these folks, though.
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