Wu Flu

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motherjuggs&speed
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by motherjuggs&speed » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:34 pm

What's the best folding knife to cut someone's finger off with? Asking for a friend.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:46 pm

nafod wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:30 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 4:01 pm
Again. None of the Nords used masks. Why not?
They had a pretty full-on draconian lockdown.

The physics on masks keeping your spew close to you and away from folks is solid. I see it as belt and suspenders. Keep your distance, but also wear a mask. A 40% effectiveness makes a big difference on R0.

We have a requirement for wearing masks in stores that is complied with maybe 50-80%, by personal observation. My wife was at Walmart the other day, where they have some old guy at the door now to make sure people comply with their new rule. Some dude in a wife-beater with squaw and shortie in tow shows up, gives the old man the finger, and cruises by maskless. I wanted to spray him in the face with hand cleaner, and I wasn't even there.

I'm at the "fuck it, let it wash over us" stage, frankly. We deserve it. Feel bad for the low income who have to work and interact with these folks, though.
No they absolutely did not. I have family in Sweden and Denmark and they did not have masking, distancing, shutdown, or other mandates like you are suggesting. When my wife asked her cousin in Stockholm what the deal was, she said, "we don't need the government to tell us to be careful."
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:49 pm

Sorry, I just meant the Norwegians.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:31 pm

Holy shit dude Nafod your hate for everyday whites radiates off you like the stink from a porta potty.

That and your totally unwarranted self-opinion as to ability to think.

I really don't like you.

Death tolls for SARS2 are almost about elder care and the severity of the last few flu seasons.

You know what I hope "washes over you"? A fucking homo tranny black dude from HR. That's what.

You're a neoliberal "meritocratic" asshole who doesn't give a fuck about working people. At bottom all you care about are those sexual freaks broken by the system you stand behind.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:32 pm

nafod wrote:
Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:49 pm
Sorry, I just meant the Norwegians.
YOU DON'T KNOW ANYTHING YET YOU KEEP TALKING I DO NOT UNDERSTAND.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:35 pm

Two studies as to the role of obesity (more precisely leptin) re symptom severity in SARS2 infections. It's very not good.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20161042v1

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 6616305518

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:36 pm

Despite how it's portrayed there is nothing new about the Cytokine Storm

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articl ... po=20.7071

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:46 pm

This is a fascinating article. It explains the mechanics behind the global response to pandemics. Who has stakes in the outcome and who makes the decisions etc etc.

If you ever wondered why a vaccine is the preferred treatment for a disease that reaches HIT at ~20% sero-prevalence, this'll explain it. Imagine how many dosed you'd have to give to reduce HIT 5% in a population to achieve that.

Just to be perfectly clear and head off BS. I am not citing the article as proof that SARS2 is just the flu or same same as swine flu.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... ssion=true

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:25 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:31 pm
Holy shit dude Nafod your hate for everyday whites radiates off you like the stink from a porta potty.

That and your totally unwarranted self-opinion as to ability to think.

I really don't like you.

Death tolls for SARS2 are almost about elder care and the severity of the last few flu seasons.

You know what I hope "washes over you"? A fucking homo tranny black dude from HR. That's what.

You're a neoliberal "meritocratic" asshole who doesn't give a fuck about working people. At bottom all you care about are those sexual freaks broken by the system you stand behind.
Just wear a fucking mask, you moron
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:40 pm

I do fucker. But only because ignorant hysterics like you have sublimated their desire to intra-ethnic cleanse bad whites into the issue. And you fgts have more power than you deserve because of social media.

I'm seeing kids under 8 wearing masks! How does that make you feel? Calmer and safer? Disgusting.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm

Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:50 pm

nafod wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:25 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:31 pm
Holy shit dude Nafod your hate for everyday whites radiates off you like the stink from a porta potty.

That and your totally unwarranted self-opinion as to ability to think.

I really don't like you.

Death tolls for SARS2 are almost about elder care and the severity of the last few flu seasons.

You know what I hope "washes over you"? A fucking homo tranny black dude from HR. That's what.

You're a neoliberal "meritocratic" asshole who doesn't give a fuck about working people. At bottom all you care about are those sexual freaks broken by the system you stand behind.
Just wear a fucking mask, you moron
Japan is what on your hysterical mask compliance scale? Hahahha

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/japans-c ... ssion=true

Pls explain.

Nah, I'll do it. Masks don't fucking work and they are testing more and finding more. Because if masks could "crush the virus" (jfc that is such a cringe inducing stmtnt) Japan would have done it whatever it means for you. Which is nothing because it is a mere floating signifier like RACISM and WHITE SUPREMACY meant only to be used in whatever way is most damaging to bad whites.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:11 pm

Here's some more math like with masks but for testing.

Assume:

1) population of 1,000,000

2) 5% are currently infected

3) test is 95% sensitive and 95% specific

4) entire population is tested.

Result 50/50 chance a positive is accurate/false. Plus 2,500 false negatives.

5% infected means 950,000 negative and 50,000 positive (this is the real background situation)

A 95% sensitivity means of the 950,000 negatives--- 902,500 will test negative but 47,500 will falsely test positive.

A 95% specific test means of the 50,000 who are positive 2,500 will falsely test negative. Leaving 47,500 actual positives testing positive.

So, 47,500 false positives and 47,500 true positives.

The ratio of false to correct positive changes as the quality of the test changes and as the % infected change. Obv a more sensitive and more specific test reduces false results. The ratio also improves as the % infected increases until 20% infected returns a 1/3 false to 2/3 accurate result. But, 20% is herd immunity.

The important thing is that as the % infected declines the ratio worsens.

The current tests are all over the map wrt accuracy but 95% is probably fair.

No one knows how many are infected at any given moment and 5% is very high. Just calculate how many people would have had it if that were a rolling average...

The bottom line is large scale testing for this is dumb. But we're doing more and the more we do the lower the % actually infected in the tested pop goes....

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:55 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.
MS Epidemiology, University of Pizzagate
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sun Jul 26, 2020 9:03 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:11 pm
Here's some more math like with masks but for testing.

Assume:

1) population of 1,000,000

2) 5% are currently infected

3) test is 95% sensitive and 95% specific

4) entire population is tested.

Result 50/50 chance a positive is accurate/false. Plus 2,500 false negatives.

5% infected means 950,000 negative and 50,000 positive (this is the real background situation)

A 95% sensitivity means of the 950,000 negatives--- 902,500 will test negative but 47,500 will falsely test positive.

A 95% specific test means of the 50,000 who are positive 2,500 will falsely test negative. Leaving 47,500 actual positives testing positive.

So, 47,500 false positives and 47,500 true positives.

The ratio of false to correct positive changes as the quality of the test changes and as the % infected change. Obv a more sensitive and more specific test reduces false results. The ratio also improves as the % infected increases until 20% infected returns a 1/3 false to 2/3 accurate result. But, 20% is herd immunity.

The important thing is that as the % infected declines the ratio worsens.

The current tests are all over the map wrt accuracy but 95% is probably fair.

No one knows how many are infected at any given moment and 5% is very high. Just calculate how many people would have had it if that were a rolling average...

The bottom line is large scale testing for this is dumb. But we're doing more and the more we do the lower the % actually infected in the tested pop goes....
Nice. You cribbed from a St. Regis University PhD thesis.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Jul 26, 2020 10:45 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:11 pm
The bottom line is large scale testing for this is dumb.
Benny, you seem pretty astute, statistically. Once you consider the population as the patient, not the individual, then that noisy measurement still carries a lot of information about the percentage infected.

What are the odds that only 3% of the population are infected if you are getting 20% of the tests positive, like they are getting in Arizona? That noisy test gives you a lot of information, actually.

This is why testing needs to be not just of people with symptoms too. It needs to be large scale.

To go back to the hair salon, the two stylists that both had symptoms and were contagious worked with 139 customers that has a span of ages and susceptibility. It appears that no one got sick from it, based on follow-ups. Both stylists and customers wore masks.

What would the probabilities of each infection opportunity have to be to make that outcome even just 50/50? Pretty damn small, is the answer.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... mm6928e2_w
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:22 pm

1) the testing isn't random

2) the tests aren't accurate

3) negatives aren't reported.

4) serology and PCT tests both included

5) lag of report due to overwhelmed processing infrastructure.

6) if even 8% of the pop has tested positive for disease for 6 months then it is at over 100% saturation unless you are re-testing many multiples of times. See 1).

The point still is that widespread testing of negative and asymptomatics is counter-productive.

Targeted testing isn't even that helpful in treatment. Doctors rightly diagnose on their own and they are very good at it by now.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:26 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:22 pm
5) lag of report due to overwhelmed processing infrastructure.
I agree 100% that even this alone has made testing useless right now, other than for history.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:28 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:55 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.
MS Epidemiology, University of Pizzagate
Please explain where I am wrong.

"All the experts disagree" is not proof of anything as should be obvious by now.

Edit

This is from Oxford CEBM.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov- ... nce-brief/
Last edited by Bennyonesix1 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:30 pm

nafod wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:26 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:22 pm
5) lag of report due to overwhelmed processing infrastructure.
I agree 100% that even this alone has made testing useless right now, other than for history.
We'd need infrastructure larger than and just as specialized as the IRS to process it.

The trajectory is a Gompertz curve. By the time anyone notices the horse is out of the barn anyway.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:46 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:28 pm
Turdacious wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:55 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.
MS Epidemiology, University of Pizzagate
Please explain where I am wrong.

"All the experts disagree" is not proof of anything as should be obvious by now.

Edit

This is from Oxford CEBM.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov- ... nce-brief/
I hope you are right. However that article doesn’t support your ‘primary vector of transmission’ thesis.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:18 pm

After a close look, these respiratory infections really don't appear to be spreading geographically across large distances via sequential sick to well transmission.

The paradigm seems to be more or less spontaneous outbreaks across a given latitude.

I disregard all data out of ching chong land: good and bad.

So, absent that noise what we saw was a massive spontaneous global outbreak in the northern latitudes. With some lesser outbreaks further south.

After the outbreaks in the north peaked and receded we saw another wave of spontaneous outbreaks further south.

With a different shaped epidemic curve.

It really does look like Mexico pumped positives and symptomatics into the border. But there was no commensurate sequential "spread" from those ppl to US residents. As Mexico peaked and recedes so are the birder states.

https://mobile.twitter.com/tlowdon/stat ... 3032617984

This is of course the now famous Hope-Simpson hypothesis. That Ivor Cummins brought back from obscurity.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:22 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:46 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:28 pm
Turdacious wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:55 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.
MS Epidemiology, University of Pizzagate
Please explain where I am wrong.

"All the experts disagree" is not proof of anything as should be obvious by now.

Edit

This is from Oxford CEBM.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov- ... nce-brief/
I hope you are right. However that article doesn’t support your ‘primary vector of transmission’ thesis.
It supports the fact that I have some idea what I am talking about though.

If we are fitting narratives to data, the oral/fecal route is a much better fit for superspreader events and the higher overall cases and mortality in places like NYC etc where shit covered subway car interiors and sub-standard "slum lord" (lol you know who) construction caused sig fecal matter spread in both solid and aerosol form.

It's also a reasonable explanation for why family transmission was such a sig factor. Locking ppl inside houses with communal bathrooms over long periods isn't smart at any time but wtf this was a NOVEL coronavirus so let's go wild dudes!

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:31 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:22 pm
oral/fecal
Not sure about transmission, but we're setting up to monitor the waste streams in the dorms to determine if it is active once the students get back.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:52 pm

A very strange but also parsimonious explanation is that these viruses exist throughout the entire population on the genomic level and outbreaks are in fact just manifestations of population wide critically low vitD.

This works most simply with no sick to well transmission during outbreak. This could explain the fishing boat out for over a month which suddenly saw an outbreak. But it seems hard to square with "superspreader" events. Which could however be illusory.

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