Wu Flu

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nafod
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:25 pm

So what think you of variolation?

Purposely give yourself a small dose, maybe dermally, to "vaccinate" yourself.

Should be getting looked at more.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:52 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:22 pm
Turdacious wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:46 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:28 pm
Turdacious wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:55 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Jul 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Fwiw, I've been on the primary vector of transmission is fecal/oral since the Diamond Princess.

Everything we'll know about this by the end is in that one episode.
MS Epidemiology, University of Pizzagate
Please explain where I am wrong.

"All the experts disagree" is not proof of anything as should be obvious by now.

Edit

This is from Oxford CEBM.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/sars-cov- ... nce-brief/
I hope you are right. However that article doesn’t support your ‘primary vector of transmission’ thesis.
It supports the fact that I have some idea what I am talking about though.

If we are fitting narratives to data, the oral/fecal route is a much better fit for superspreader events and the higher overall cases and mortality in places like NYC etc where shit covered subway car interiors and sub-standard "slum lord" (lol you know who) construction caused sig fecal matter spread in both solid and aerosol form.

It's also a reasonable explanation for why family transmission was such a sig factor. Locking ppl inside houses with communal bathrooms over long periods isn't smart at any time but wtf this was a NOVEL coronavirus so let's go wild dudes!
Re you having some idea what you're talking about, it's more along these lines:
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:58 am

Age distribution of fatalities practically the same as the flu

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLevitt_NP20 ... 1429606401

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 3:54 pm

Hahahahahha. Very useful data. Let's do more.


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Washington #Nats star Juan Soto is getting increasingly frustrated, his teammates say. He has reportedly tested negative six times_three by MLB and three by the team_but has not had back-to-back negative tests, keeping him out of action.
11:28 AM · Jul 28, 2020·Twitter Web App

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:37 pm

The newest SARS2 meme is pernicious cardiac sequelae. There's no doubt they happen. But the issue is what is the incremental increase over flu and pneu? Any acute infection increases dramatically (short term) the risk of cardiac/stroke episodes.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa041747

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:41 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:58 am
Age distribution of fatalities practically the same as the flu

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLevitt_NP20 ... 1429606401
Terrible post. I retract.

The age distribution among the elderly is very (shockingly) similar.

The rest of the age distribution is shockingly dissimilar. All other age groups especially the very young are less.

For me, this means we have sig and massive over diagnosis of covid in the older demographics.

The actual covid diagnosis should be limited to death from the Cytokine Storm.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:14 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:41 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:58 am
Age distribution of fatalities practically the same as the flu

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLevitt_NP20 ... 1429606401
Terrible post. I retract.

The age distribution among the elderly is very (shockingly) similar.

The rest of the age distribution is shockingly dissimilar. All other age groups especially the very young are less.

For me, this means we have sig and massive over diagnosis of covid in the older demographics.

The actual covid diagnosis should be limited to death from the Cytokine Storm.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:10 pm

Pre-print of metastudy but still

"Conclusion: Although SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in respiratory and stool can be prolonged, duration of viable virus is relatively short-lived. Thus, detection of viral RNA cannot be used to infer infectiousness. High SARS-CoV-2 titres are detectable in the first week of illness with an early peak observed at symptom onset to day 5 of illness. This review underscores the importance of early case finding and isolation, as well as public education on the spectrum of illness. However, given potential delays in the isolation of patients, effective containment of SARS-CoV-2 may be challenging even with an early detection and isolation strategy"

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20162107v1

Testing for this disease is useless for mitigation.

The infections follow a Gompertz curve (ballistic like a rifle bullet) and by the time anyone knows the thing has spread and most are asymptomatic. It's never possible to act before the horse is out of the barn and across the fields into the trees.

And it's also useless to track spread. Ppl are non-infective but pop positives for plus 2 weeks.

Use that damn instant anti-body test that costs a dollar everywhere and give up the rest.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:22 pm

nafod wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:25 pm
So what think you of variolation?

Purposely give yourself a small dose, maybe dermally, to "vaccinate" yourself.

Should be getting looked at more.
Or maybe just send kids back to school?

Get those free tickets to population resistance?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:27 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:22 pm
nafod wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:25 pm
So what think you of variolation?

Purposely give yourself a small dose, maybe dermally, to "vaccinate" yourself.

Should be getting looked at more.
Or maybe just send kids back to school?

Get those free tickets to population resistance?
sort of

Masks seem to have a "variolation" effect, the science is showing. It controls the dosing.
Researchers have tentatively estimated that about 40 percent of coronavirus infections do not produce any symptoms. But when some people wear masks, the proportion of asymptomatic cases seems to skyrocket, reportedly surpassing 90 percent during one outbreak at a seafood plant in Oregon. Wearing a face covering doesn’t make people impervious to infection, but these trends of asymptomatic cases could suggest that masks lead to milder disease, potentially reducing hospitalizations and deaths.
and
Particularly compelling, Dr. Gandhi said, is the data from cruise ships, which pack big groups of people into close quarters. More than 80 percent of those infected aboard Japan’s Diamond Princess in February — before masking had become common practice — came down with symptoms, she noted. But on another vessel that left Argentina in March, and on which all passengers were issued surgical masks after someone onboard came down with a fever, the level of symptomatic cases was below 20 percent.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/27/heal ... ction.html
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 3:37 pm

Idk. Theoretically possible but seems like another likely story.


Asymptomatic rate seems determined by infected's overall health. vitD seems the best marker. It's unclear if it's purely the vitD being causal or the low vitD levels are signs of other chronic conditions that are the real exposure.

There's just too much co-morbidity in the deaths and serious cases for me to go with viral load.

I mean the pure "from covid" deaths among the non elderly are almost non-existent.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20162131v1

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:04 pm

Cool video showing efficacy of masks.

Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm

That's great.

And by great I mean dumb.

In the larger context of not knowing how this thing is actually transmitted and mask use showing no observable effect on infection or death curves and no real evidence that viral load plays a part in severity of symptoms I don't feel any convincification from that.

It's a cool story. Be nice if it were true. But it just shows a dude who can't understand different levels of abstraction. Whatever the mechanics of sick to well transmission are (if they even exist) it's not via that level of reality. It's virions themselves and there is no indication they need to be embedded in structures large enough to be stopped by a mask.

Btw, one of the famous evidence based medicine lessons is how there are no studies showing definitively that surgical masks stop infections in patients.

Look dude keep hustling to preserve your mask theory.

Even if it works, we're going to population resistance levels.

Seriously, what is it with you people?

YOU'VE FUCKING WON. YOUR GODDAMNED NARRATIVE DOMINATES EVERYONE IS WEARING MASKS. KIDS ARE WEARING MASKS FFS.

WHY ARE YOU SO FUCKING RELENTLESS ABOUT THIS SHIT?

Why is the existence and resistance of the kulaks so intolerable?

Isn't it enough to know the Long March Through the Institutions was a success?

You've rammed this bullshit down everyone's throats and exacted harsh penalties and social isolation on the dissidents.

I just can't understand why it isn't enough.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:37 pm

Right now 'rona is spiking everywhere. In authoritarian countries, liberal ones, and basket case shithole tier ones where nobody is in charge. It's spiking in places with strong social distancing and mask policies, and in places without them, and in places like the US where it's a bit of both. I see no clear evidence that any of these countermeasures are making a big difference, and we can all see the massive economic toll this is taking on people is unsustainable. Which leads me to conclude that the instant these policies and measures cease, as they must for economies to recover, the spread will increase exponentially.

So what are we waiting for? A vaccine? I thought it was considered passé to believe in things that don't exist or aren't observable.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:49 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm
YOU'VE FUCKING WON. YOUR GODDAMNED NARRATIVE DOMINATES EVERYONE IS WEARING MASKS. KIDS ARE WEARING MASKS FFS.

WHY ARE YOU SO FUCKING RELENTLESS ABOUT THIS SHIT?
Every quickie mart I've been to recently, there have been dipshits going without a mask. It is not even close to EVERYONE WEARING MASKS.

LOL at that dumbfuck Gohmert. I'm not hoping he dies, but if someone has to die, I am hoping it is him.
Louie Gohmert, who refused to wear a mask, tests positive for coronavirus

The Texas Republican received the diagnosis during a pre-screening procedure at the White House on Wednesday morning.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:20 pm

CNN: Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/heal ... ium=social

I've got no fucking idea whether that shit helps or not, but I have to laugh, given the way that the media has pilloried and cancelled people for claiming it does. I think Trump Jr. is currently banned from Twitter for making the claim, so I hope they have the decency to ban CNN too.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:30 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:20 pm
CNN: Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/heal ... ium=social
July 2nd? That's like last century in pandemic years.

seriously, I can barely remember life before this shit.
Three high-quality randomized controlled studies, the gold standard in evaluating medicines, have been stopped because hydroxychloroquine was providing no benefit at all for patients.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/new ... loroquine/
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:49 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:20 pm
CNN: Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/heal ... ium=social

I've got no fucking idea whether that shit helps or not, but I have to laugh, given the way that the media has pilloried and cancelled people for claiming it does. I think Trump Jr. is currently banned from Twitter for making the claim, so I hope they have the decency to ban CNN too.
There's some anecdotal evidence from around 1:27:30-1:32:00 or so: https://www.c-span.org/video/?472963-1/ ... e-covid-19

From what I've seen, there is some evidence that COVID19 cases are less prevalent in countries where malaria is endemic, although nobody really knows why. The theory that anti-malarial drugs like hydrochloroquine may play a role in this was not unreasonable and worth pursuing.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:53 pm

I tried to make it clear that I neither know nor care whether it is effective. It's the volcanic hypocrisy of the media hivemind that amuses me, darkly.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:58 pm

nafod wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:30 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 7:20 pm
CNN: Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/02/heal ... ium=social
July 2nd? That's like last century in pandemic years.

seriously, I can barely remember life before this shit.
Three high-quality randomized controlled studies, the gold standard in evaluating medicines, have been stopped because hydroxychloroquine was providing no benefit at all for patients.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/16/new ... loroquine/
The study, a randomized controlled trial led by researchers at the University of Minnesota, adds to the evidence that the malaria drug, heralded as a treatment based on scant data early in the pandemic, has little utility in treating Covid-19. It is likely to add to the smoldering political conflict around the drug, which President Trump said he took to prevent Covid-19 infection. But the study itself has significant limitations that prevent it from being a final word on the subject [...]

The Minnesota study is one of a triad of randomized controlled trials, organized by David Boulware, that aimed to test hydroxychloroquine’s efficacy. One tested giving the drug to people after they were exposed to patients with Covid-19; that trial also failed. This trial tested using the drug right after symptoms began. A third study, for which results have not yet been reported, gave hydroxychloroquine to doctors and other people at high risk of getting Covid-19 before they were exposed to the virus.

To conduct these studies, the researchers made significant compromises. They could not obtain diagnostic testing for all patients, so included people who had symptoms but couldn’t get a test result. In the end, only 58% of the people in this study had diagnostic test results. The researchers mailed study drug or placebo to patients without examining them after they enrolled over the internet, meaning they used data patients self-reported. In the end, the study randomized 491 patients, 432 of whom contributed data to the final analysis.

The patients on hydroxychloroquine recovered 12% faster, or 0.27 points on a 10-point scale, but this difference was far from statistically significant. Patients on hydroxychloroquine also had side effects: 31% had upset stomachs and 21% diarrhea, both about double the rates in the placebo group, though no patients reported cardiac arrhythmias. Overall, adverse effects were reported by 43% of hydroxychloroquine patients and 22% of placebo patients.

The question is, given the study’s limitations, what weight should be given to the results?

“The study was of such low quality that it was fundamentally uninterpretable,” said Steven Nissen, a veteran clinical trialist at the Cleveland Clinic. Still, he said, the evidence against hydroxychloroquine is mounting. “In this study there is no evidence of a benefit for hydroxychloroquine, and it is probably time to move on and start testing other therapies,” he said.

The main problem, Nissen said, is that the evidence on hydroxychloroquine should be coming from large, well-funded studies that were big enough to give clear answers. “Instead of focusing on one or two large, well-powered, well-run rigorous trials, we’ve got a bunch of observational studies, low quality randomized controlled trials, and no answers.”
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 8:54 pm

nafod wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:49 pm
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:07 pm
YOU'VE FUCKING WON. YOUR GODDAMNED NARRATIVE DOMINATES EVERYONE IS WEARING MASKS. KIDS ARE WEARING MASKS FFS.

WHY ARE YOU SO FUCKING RELENTLESS ABOUT THIS SHIT?
Every quickie mart I've been to recently, there have been dipshits going without a mask. It is not even close to EVERYONE WEARING MASKS.

LOL at that dumbfuck Gohmert. I'm not hoping he dies, but if someone has to die, I am hoping it is him.
Louie Gohmert, who refused to wear a mask, tests positive for coronavirus

The Texas Republican received the diagnosis during a pre-screening procedure at the White House on Wednesday morning.
Jfc you are a nasty little shit.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:16 pm

This is the kind of thing the govs use to make policy. It's fun to play with and it will make you laugh if you know the actual numbers etc etc.

https://cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/

@dierenbach has some posts about it. Here's an example:



Karl Dierenbach
@Dierenbach
·
Jul 27
Dang! Using CO’s Covid modeling app:

1
Set all Social Distancing (SD) to 0%
Vary mask 0-100%
At 0% 72k die
At 100% 68k die

2
Set mask wearing to 0%
Vary SD% 0-100%
At 0% 72k die
At 100% 1.8k die

Even state modelers know masks do almost nothing

https://cucovid19.shinyapps.io/colorado/

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:25 pm

The arrogance of thinking it was possible to model a massive and massively chaotic system is staggering.

I was an early adopter of sabermetrics. I bought all the Bill James books and The Hardball Times etc etc. Before even Moneyball. Well before.

But then I realized it was all god damned loser nerds obsessed with being a GM and DOING IT CHEAPER by depressing wages. Neoliberal evil bullshit.

And then it didn't work. And it all became CYA for loser nerds.

It has almost completely ruined the visual aesthetics of Baseball.

And now we've done it with covid.

Oh yeah, we also have massive regulatory capture of the "health orgs" by Big Pharma.

A perfect storm of graft and loser nerds.

Just like baseball we all now live in a hyper-reality detached from the realities on the ground.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:43 pm

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Thu Jul 30, 2020 4:16 pm
Set all Social Distancing (SD) to 0%
Vary mask 0-100%
At 0% 72k die
At 100% 68k die
That's just fucking stupid. Setting "social distance to 0" = everyone playing human centipede. Of course masks don't make a difference.

JFC I thought you were smarter. Not smart, but smarter.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Thu Jul 30, 2020 10:53 pm

Hahahahhaah

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