Wu Flu

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:31 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:20 am
Absolute insanity

In a city of 8million at prevalence 1% you'll falsely quarantine 240,000 for 80,000 mostly asymptomatic ppl.

Not to mention ppl will pop positive as much as 12 weeks post infectivity.
You won’t quarantine them for a week. Just have them stay home for the day and retest tomorrow.

The test won’t come up positive for 12 weeks like the current tests. Different kind of test. The current tests detect virus RNA, which is floating around long after the virus is gone. This test detects the virus spikes.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Fri Aug 28, 2020 2:31 pm

That's a good point. The second pass reduces false positives to about a thousand.

But i think unless you test the whole population on Day 1 you have to quarantine all recipients until the whole population is tested.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Shafpocalypse Now » Sat Aug 29, 2020 6:04 pm

Look Turd,

I don't give a fucking shit about abortions only that if a woman or a girl wants one, they should be able to get one, with no stigma. The virtue signalling on abortion is disgusting, as the Pro Life flag is generally carried by secret adulterers and child rapists in the guise of religious leaders. And every election the fucking republicans roll it out like they give a shit. Nobody actually gives a shit. And if they say they do they are a fucking liar.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 8:24 pm

I think were seeing an inflection point on SARS2. This acct is one of the avenues for the powers that be to disseminate anti-narrative info.

It could of course be preparing the ground to abandon the old testing regime for the new Abbott Lab tests.

Bottom line, admission somewhere around 90% of positive results from the beginning have been either false or non-infective.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/heal ... rR4aBDK4Xl

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:19 pm

I read somewhere else about how the PCR tests see if you have the virus, the fast tests see if you are contagious. You need to do them more since you could be infected but not contagious one day and then contagious the next, but at $5 per, who cares.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:44 pm

nafod wrote:
Sat Aug 29, 2020 9:19 pm
I read somewhere else about how the PCR tests see if you have the virus, the fast tests see if you are contagious. You need to do them more since you could be infected but not contagious one day and then contagious the next, but at $5 per, who cares.
So, all the conspiracy theorist misinformation peddling granny killer bigots were right about the tests all along?

And this impacts death categorization as well.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:07 am

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:18 am
Yeah, for reference, my kids got colds from a pool, we couldn't test them for three days due to the sensitivity of that test. Once tested, we had to wait a few days for results, it was something like 10 days since they didn't show symptoms at the same time. I caught it from them, had to isolate. Testing that slow is a nightmare for opening schools.

If the new Abbott test is as advertised that's a pretty big deal. It won't be perfect, but you are going to get 97% of people fast, for the 3% you miss, you catch 97% of the people they infect. That is very promising and way better than good enough to run schools and businesses at a fairly normal level.

I don't think you can get away without another shutdown, just because the case load is so high, but if the testing is that squared away you would be done at that point.
Even if the Abbet test is as advertised, the government locked up the whole supply so it’s gonna be a while before it’s available for general use. It will go to the military, healthcare providers, essential industries like airlines and meat Packers, and of course big campaign donors before it gets to the rest of us. That’s probably gonna be a while
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:51 am

Turdacious wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:07 am
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:18 am
Yeah, for reference, my kids got colds from a pool, we couldn't test them for three days due to the sensitivity of that test. Once tested, we had to wait a few days for results, it was something like 10 days since they didn't show symptoms at the same time. I caught it from them, had to isolate. Testing that slow is a nightmare for opening schools.

If the new Abbott test is as advertised that's a pretty big deal. It won't be perfect, but you are going to get 97% of people fast, for the 3% you miss, you catch 97% of the people they infect. That is very promising and way better than good enough to run schools and businesses at a fairly normal level.

I don't think you can get away without another shutdown, just because the case load is so high, but if the testing is that squared away you would be done at that point.
Even if the Abbet test is as advertised, the government locked up the whole supply so it’s gonna be a while before it’s available for general use. It will go to the military, healthcare providers, essential industries like airlines and meat Packers, and of course big campaign donors before it gets to the rest of us. That’s probably gonna be a while
They only had 150 million. Not nearly enough for gen pub. They need to preserve them for essential ppl.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:55 am

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1299 ... 91940.html

"THREAD: Maybe you’ve heard about Ct values in the qPCR test and viral loads.

So what’s a Ct value, why is higher Ct a lower viral load, what’s it have to do with #COVID19 , and why do we care?

1/11
Ct stands for 'Cycle Threshold'

In qPCR tests, when the virus RNA enters the test, to detect whether virus RNA exists, it has to get amplified to be seen by the machine, like a ‘zoom’ feature.

2/11
The qPCR machine has detectors that detect fluorescent light.

Importantly, in qPCR, fluorescent molecules bind RNA (actually DNA, but for clarity, I’ll keep calling it RNA since it’s RNA in the virus and people know RNA now - but really the RNA becomes DNA in the test).

3/11
So if there is viral RNA, the RNA will fluoresce and can be detected by the detectors – small cameras measuring fluorescence.

The detectors are good, but to really ‘see’ the RNA, the signal has to get brighter – like zooming in on your computer.

4/11
To “zoom” in, the PCR machine ‘cycles’. With each individual cycle, if the virus RNA is there, the RNA will double, and the fluorescent molecules that stick to the RNA will get twice as bright.

5/11
So if there is 1 RNA molecule, after 1 cycle, there will be 2 RNAs and the signal is 2x as bright. Another cycle makes 4 RNAs and the signal is 4x as bright compared to starting.

6/11
The Ct or ‘Cycle Threshold’ is therefore the number of cycles it takes to make the signal bright enough for the detector to see it… If you have to go through a lot (i.e. 30+) of cycles to see it, then you started with a small amount of virus RNA

7/11
If you have to go through only a small number of cycles (i.e. 8-15), then you started with a lot of viral RNA.

Every increase of ~3 cycles needed to see it means a 10x lower viral load. Add 10 cycles = 1000x lower

8/11
If sample A has Ct = 20 and sample B has Ct value = 23, then A is ~10x higher viral load than B.

If sample A has Ct = 37 and sample B has Ct value = 27, then A is 1000x lower viral load than B.

9/11
So, again, Ct is like zooming in on your computer screen. If you have to zoom a lot, then the thing was small to start with. If you have to zoom a little, then the thing was big to start. In PCR, the ‘thing’ is the starting amount of virus.

10/11
To sum, Ct is inversely proportional to virus load.

It is the # of cycles or “zooms” needed to see the virus RNA. If many cycles/zooms needed, it means low viral load input

If few cycle/zooms to detect means you high viral load input

each +3.3 cycles = 10x lower virus

11/11"

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:15 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:51 am
Turdacious wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:07 am
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:18 am
Yeah, for reference, my kids got colds from a pool, we couldn't test them for three days due to the sensitivity of that test. Once tested, we had to wait a few days for results, it was something like 10 days since they didn't show symptoms at the same time. I caught it from them, had to isolate. Testing that slow is a nightmare for opening schools.

If the new Abbott test is as advertised that's a pretty big deal. It won't be perfect, but you are going to get 97% of people fast, for the 3% you miss, you catch 97% of the people they infect. That is very promising and way better than good enough to run schools and businesses at a fairly normal level.

I don't think you can get away without another shutdown, just because the case load is so high, but if the testing is that squared away you would be done at that point.
Even if the Abbet test is as advertised, the government locked up the whole supply so it’s gonna be a while before it’s available for general use. It will go to the military, healthcare providers, essential industries like airlines and meat Packers, and of course big campaign donors before it gets to the rest of us. That’s probably gonna be a while
They only had 150 million. Not nearly enough for gen pub. They need to preserve them for essential ppl.
I bet there will be other Abbots with similar tests. Or at least I hope.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:28 am

nafod wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 1:15 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:51 am
Turdacious wrote:
Sun Aug 30, 2020 12:07 am
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Fri Aug 28, 2020 3:18 am
Yeah, for reference, my kids got colds from a pool, we couldn't test them for three days due to the sensitivity of that test. Once tested, we had to wait a few days for results, it was something like 10 days since they didn't show symptoms at the same time. I caught it from them, had to isolate. Testing that slow is a nightmare for opening schools.

If the new Abbott test is as advertised that's a pretty big deal. It won't be perfect, but you are going to get 97% of people fast, for the 3% you miss, you catch 97% of the people they infect. That is very promising and way better than good enough to run schools and businesses at a fairly normal level.

I don't think you can get away without another shutdown, just because the case load is so high, but if the testing is that squared away you would be done at that point.
Even if the Abbet test is as advertised, the government locked up the whole supply so it’s gonna be a while before it’s available for general use. It will go to the military, healthcare providers, essential industries like airlines and meat Packers, and of course big campaign donors before it gets to the rest of us. That’s probably gonna be a while
They only had 150 million. Not nearly enough for gen pub. They need to preserve them for essential ppl.
I bet there will be other Abbots with similar tests. Or at least I hope.
Idk. You'll need a billion easy.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Sun Aug 30, 2020 7:04 pm

Ferritin is high in severe Covid cases.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7286435/

Ferritin is a marker (among other things) of bacterial infection.

SARS2 either hits ppl carrying a high bacterial load or hits ppl and causes a massive bacterial infection.

The recent findings in England that no kids had died from Covid without profound other illnesses supports the idea that the virus itself is benign. It's something else that kills: quite possibly bacterial infection (anaerobic).

@sanchak74 was the first I saw to make this leap.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:03 pm

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.08142.pdf
It has become increasingly clear that the COVID-19 epidemic is char- acterized by overdispersion whereby the majority of the transmis- sion is driven by a minority of infected individuals. Such a strong departure from the homogeneity assumptions of the traditional well- mixed compartment model is usually hypothesized to be the result of short-term super-spreader events, such as an individual’s extreme rate of virus shedding at the peak of infectivity while attending a large gathering without appropriate mitigation. However, we demon- strate that the spread of epidemics is primarily sensitive to long- term, or persistent heterogeneity of individual susceptibility or infec- tivity. We demonstrate how to incorporate this heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models, and derive a non-linear depen- dence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. Persistent heterogeneity has three important consequences compared to the effects of short-term overdispersion: (1) It results in a major modification of the early epidemic dynam- ics; (2) It significantly suppresses the herd immunity threshold; (3) It also significantly reduces the final size of the epidemic. We esti- mate social and biological contributions to persistent heterogeneity using data on real-life face-to-face contact networks and age varia- tion of the incidence rate during the COVID-19 epidemic. In addition, empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in New York City (NYC) and Chicago, as well as 50 US states provide a consistent charac- terization of the level of heterogeneity. Our estimates suggest that the hardest-hit areas, such as NYC, are close to the heterogeneity- modified herd immunity threshold following the first wave of the epi- demic. However, this type of immunity is fragile as it wanes over time if the pattern of social interactions changes substantially.
It's a really cool paper. It makes a number of great points and provides the proper framework for understanding viral spread if the mechanism is in fact sick to well transmission.

Populations are not homogenous with respect to either susceptibility or infectivity. Some ppl are more susceptible and some spread it more. Luckily, there seems to be a positive correlation between susceptibility and infectivity. This means that the spreaders are used up quickly and the disease is limited in its overall spread. This accounts for the observed "herd immunity" (a technical and misleading term) of approx 20%.

The best thing is that they make the point that there are also "social" or "cultural" or non-biologic factors in play. And that these are temporary. Though of course some are more persistent than others. Balloux has made this point repeatedly. This means that measures like social distancing can temporarily reduce homogeneity but not permanently. At the same time there are in fact durable and persistent non-biologic factors in play which would stabilize heterogeneity in various regions.

Obviously, there are a whole lot of moving parts.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:43 pm

Wait a goddamn minute: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... /index.htm

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

That means of 153,504 death recorded as resulting from COVID-19, only 6%, or 9,210, actually died from COVID-19 and the other 94% had 2-3 other illnesses and the overwhelming majority were of very advanced age (74+).

Am I reading this wrong or is this as fucked up as it seems?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:53 pm

It's deceiving.

By that standard, exactly zero people have died of AIDS.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:06 pm

It's not an autoimmune disease that makes you vulnerable to other diseases. It's other diseases that make you vulnerable to COVID-19. The lesson here is that if you're not fat, sick, and/or old, you're not in danger.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:17 pm

For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

Actually look at the data.

You'll find contributing causes like "respiratory arrest" and "pneumonia" and "respiratory failure" and "acute respiratory distress syndrome" and "renal failure" and endless lists of contributing causes that directly trace to Covid 19.

I'm surprised at the total number that just list Covid-19.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Mon Aug 31, 2020 7:14 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:43 pm
Wait a goddamn minute: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covi ... /index.htm

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.

That means of 153,504 death recorded as resulting from COVID-19, only 6%, or 9,210, actually died from COVID-19 and the other 94% had 2-3 other illnesses and the overwhelming majority were of very advanced age (74+).

Am I reading this wrong or is this as fucked up as it seems?
It's old news. And it is so badly written one can't figure out what it means. It could mean what you say or what nafod says or something in between.

The data on covid is all crap. All of it. It'll be two years until we know what happened.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:32 pm

This is all beyond me but I've been assured by people who would know that M cells and Mucosal Immunity(or lack thereof) is what explains the bacterial infections and cutokine storm re:covid.

I have no idea and probably never will understand it but here is a paper on it:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 01499/full

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:21 pm

LMAO. Typical of the hypocritical left wing movement to destroy America, he orders all the restaurants closed and then eats in a restaurant. This stuff writes itself.

Philadelphia mayor (Democrat Jim Kenney) apologizes after he was spotted dining indoors in Maryland while restaurants in his city are still closed.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/01/us/phila ... index.html
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Tue Sep 01, 2020 10:36 pm

There are only two good things about Philly at this point:

DiNic's

Monk's Bar

It's like Detroit, there's no economic reason for it to exist.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:28 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:32 pm
This is all beyond me but I've been assured by people who would know that M cells and Mucosal Immunity(or lack thereof) is what explains the bacterial infections and cutokine storm re:covid.

I have no idea and probably never will understand it but here is a paper on it:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 01499/full
I don't want to put down the research on smallest details of the functioning of the immune system, but in my view clinical research has much more value. Black box if you will: if you do this - that happens. Or, do this, and this, and this, and this - that happens.

We have a very vague idea how anaesthetic agents work, but are able to get a patient trough surgery unconscious. The example of black box.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:32 am

Sangoma wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:28 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:32 pm
This is all beyond me but I've been assured by people who would know that M cells and Mucosal Immunity(or lack thereof) is what explains the bacterial infections and cutokine storm re:covid.

I have no idea and probably never will understand it but here is a paper on it:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 01499/full
I don't want to put down the research on smallest details of the functioning of the immune system, but in my view clinical research has much more value. Black box if you will: if you do this - that happens. Or, do this, and this, and this, and this - that happens.

We have a very vague idea how anaesthetic agents work, but are able to get a patient trough surgery unconscious. The example of black box.
That's fair. And a good point. I agree.

I'd just say that the treatments for covid aren't at the success level of anaesthesiology.

Until it gets there, research like this is important in my opinion.

Btw, are the docs in AUS checking covids for anaerobic bacterial infections? I know the bottle test is a pain and not regularly performed, but there really could be something there. The weirdly low O2 levels (etc etc) could be explained by O2 sequestration by anaerobes.

EDIT

I ask because of this (which I think is the correct conclusion):

https://mobile.twitter.com/joshux321/st ... 9164386304


Josh Wang
@joshux321
Explanation: the virus is largely non-cytopathic so cause less symptoms, but carves out a way for bacteria to thrive at a later stage.
NEW DELHI: Indian scientists have observed a higher association between asymptomatic Covid-19 cases and viral load, or the amount of virus in an infected person's bodily fluid, in a study of over 200 patients with SARS-CoV-2 virus in Telangana, a "surprise" finding that may better inform the policymakers about the spread of the novel coronavirus infection
https://m.timesofindia.com/india/indian ... ssion=true
Last edited by Bennyonesix1 on Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:33 am

Governor Kate Brown
@OregonGovBrown
Today I extended the COVID-19 Emergency Declaration for 60 days. We're in a critical moment. We can slow the spread & get on the path to return more students to school – or Labor Day celebrations could unknowingly spark outbreaks that set us back months.

60 days = NOV 3

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:04 am

Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:32 am
Sangoma wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 12:28 am
Bennyonesix1 wrote:
Tue Sep 01, 2020 6:32 pm
This is all beyond me but I've been assured by people who would know that M cells and Mucosal Immunity(or lack thereof) is what explains the bacterial infections and cutokine storm re:covid.

I have no idea and probably never will understand it but here is a paper on it:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10 ... 01499/full
I don't want to put down the research on smallest details of the functioning of the immune system, but in my view clinical research has much more value. Black box if you will: if you do this - that happens. Or, do this, and this, and this, and this - that happens.

We have a very vague idea how anaesthetic agents work, but are able to get a patient trough surgery unconscious. The example of black box.
That's fair. And a good point. I agree.

I'd just say that the treatments for covid aren't at the success level of anaesthesiology.

Until it gets there, research like this is important in my opinion.

Btw, are the docs in AUS checking covids for anaerobic bacterial infections? I know the bottle test is a pain and not regularly performed, but there really could be something there. The weirdly low O2 levels (etc etc) could be explained by O2 sequestration by anaerobes.
True all that. As far as anaerobic infections are concerned - honestly I don't know. There aren't many cases in Australia, and I am yet to see one.
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