Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Sangoma » Wed May 13, 2020 1:01 am

Markets can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Quite a few bears are getting bitten.... by bulls I guess.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed May 13, 2020 2:19 am

You also have to factor in that big business sees nothing that makes them think Corp debt won't get bailed out like the Financial Sector did in 2008.

So, massive stimulus to citizens going to them and then a bailout relieving them of debt. Win/win

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Fuzzy Dunlop » Fri May 15, 2020 12:01 am

A lot of the positive returns you're seeing now are just the result of the panic-induced sell off recovering once everyone realized the world wasn't ending. The S&P is still down significantly off its high.

Q2 earnings are going to be a disaster for a lot of businesses, but as long as investors can attribute a bad quarter to an event that won't cause lasting impact, those stocks will recover from negative news quickly. The other issue is that the economy will shrink with so many people out of work which will cause lasting impact broadly. However, the government seems open to providing support so those people can continue to pay rent and buy stuff. The question now is whether there is enough positive sentiment fast enough from a reopening of the economy to combat the large correction when people realize many businesses are never going to regain their revenue streams.

Businesses well positioned to operate in a new normal will do well; e.g., SHOP. I have made a boatload of money on SHOP and TSLA over the last two months or so.The airlines are fucked, everyone has realized they don't need to be on a plane every week to conduct business. I bought JETS at the low and sold a few weeks later with a tiny profit, was hoping for a bigger bump from the stimulus but I just think airlines are in a tough spot long term. And Buffet fucked me with a press release.

I work in financial services. My company went almost immediately to > 85% WFH, globally, close to 40k people. We have had little to no disruptions in service delivery and the market making businesses have done very well given the volatility.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Fat Cat » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:45 pm

Oooh, stocks are getting joocy again, approaching MAGA territory.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Bram » Thu Jun 11, 2020 3:13 am

I unloaded two stocks today, taking a huge profit.

I have no idea how the market works, but massive unemployment should reduce buying power and drive the market down, so I got out.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Schlegel » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:32 am

Isn't Krugman the guy who said when Trump was elected we would get an immediate permanent stock market crash?
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Hanglow Joe » Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:04 am

Krugman hasn't been right in 20 years.

Market is up due to low interest rates, the economy trying to come back, and tech. People need Microsoft, and Amazon because of the lockdown. Even stocks that took HUGE hits, oil and airplanes, some fundamentally were good buys. Just like they crashed, they will bounce back.

Market will probably take a couple of losses during earnings season, because let's face facts, that's going to be ugly for most companies. If God forbid, Biden is elected, there will be a permanent crash because he is not economically friendly and put in TONS of regulation that will slow down the economy.

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:02 pm

Hanglow Joe wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:04 am
Krugman hasn't been right in 20 years.

Market is up due to low interest rates, the economy trying to come back, and tech. People need Microsoft, and Amazon because of the lockdown. Even stocks that took HUGE hits, oil and airplanes, some fundamentally were good buys. Just like they crashed, they will bounce back.

Market will probably take a couple of losses during earnings season, because let's face facts, that's going to be ugly for most companies. If God forbid, Biden is elected, there will be a permanent crash because he is not economically friendly and put in TONS of regulation that will slow down the economy.
Beyond all his flaws and weirdness, this is the one sentence reason why Trump must win.

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by nafod » Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:06 pm

DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:02 pm
Hanglow Joe wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:04 am
Krugman hasn't been right in 20 years.

Market is up due to low interest rates, the economy trying to come back, and tech. People need Microsoft, and Amazon because of the lockdown. Even stocks that took HUGE hits, oil and airplanes, some fundamentally were good buys. Just like they crashed, they will bounce back.

Market will probably take a couple of losses during earnings season, because let's face facts, that's going to be ugly for most companies. If God forbid, Biden is elected, there will be a permanent crash because he is not economically friendly and put in TONS of regulation that will slow down the economy.
Beyond all his flaws and weirdness, this is the one sentence reason why Trump must win.
?

He was Veep while the economy clawed its way out of the 2008 catastrophe and teed up Trump nicely for his continuation of the run.

Let's see, which party has held the WH during the last two economic crashes?

This is worth reading, on the upcoming financial (potential)crash. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ket-newtab

Banks that are too big to fail are too big, period. It will take onerous regulations to fix that, something I have zero trust in Trump to put forward.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:41 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:06 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:02 pm
Hanglow Joe wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 11:04 am
Krugman hasn't been right in 20 years.

Market is up due to low interest rates, the economy trying to come back, and tech. People need Microsoft, and Amazon because of the lockdown. Even stocks that took HUGE hits, oil and airplanes, some fundamentally were good buys. Just like they crashed, they will bounce back.

Market will probably take a couple of losses during earnings season, because let's face facts, that's going to be ugly for most companies. If God forbid, Biden is elected, there will be a permanent crash because he is not economically friendly and put in TONS of regulation that will slow down the economy.
Beyond all his flaws and weirdness, this is the one sentence reason why Trump must win.
?

He was Veep while the economy clawed its way out of the 2008 catastrophe and teed up Trump nicely for his continuation of the run.

Let's see, which party has held the WH during the last two economic crashes?

This is worth reading, on the upcoming financial (potential)crash. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ket-newtab

Banks that are too big to fail are too big, period. It will take onerous regulations to fix that, something I have zero trust in Trump to put forward.
Agree on the bank thing. Which party was in the WH is a bit of a straw man in my opinion. Regarding Trump vs. Biden, neither of us will change opinions at this point. At least your vote means something. I live in NY where Xi Jinping would easily defeat our bloated orange savior, and my vote is worth less than a dry orgasm.

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by nafod » Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:47 pm

DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:41 pm
At least your vote means something. I live in NY where Xi Jinping would easily defeat our bloated orange savior, and my vote is worth less than a dry orgasm.
We should overhaul our voting process, shift from winner take all electoral votes to proportional assignment to the tenth of a vote. Keep the disproportionate share that the small states get. Then your vote could mean something (and some transgender in Wyoming's could too).
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:17 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 4:47 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:41 pm
At least your vote means something. I live in NY where Xi Jinping would easily defeat our bloated orange savior, and my vote is worth less than a dry orgasm.
We should overhaul our voting process, shift from winner take all electoral votes to proportional assignment to the tenth of a vote. Keep the disproportionate share that the small states get. Then your vote could mean something (and some transgender in Wyoming's could too).
I like the rank choice voting option as well. Maine recently got it passed through a referendum. At least that way you could vote your conscience on the first pick, and then default to your "good enough but has a better shot at winning" option for your second choice. It would make 3rd parties more viable if people didn't feel like they're falling into the trap of throwing their vote away on a candidate who doesn't have a big machine behind them.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Gene » Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:27 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:06 pm
He was Veep while the economy clawed its way out of the 2008 catastrophe and teed up Trump nicely for his continuation of the run.
I suspect that Biden didn't do jack squat. Obama gave him the "gun issue", he did nothing. Biden belongs at home. No mask needed.

If the Democrats would knock off the freak show, abandon Identity Politics and go back to their roots of Working Class/Kitchen table issues, with a candidate who responds to them, Trump would be beaten worse than Jimmy Carter in 1980. They're out there, the Democrats need to recruit them.

I suspect that Obama's Regulatory Over-reach created pent up demand. Anyone could have duplicated Trump's "successes" if they weren't so hide bound in controlling the economy like Obama.

The pent up demand lasted a couple of years. Things were going south last fall.

I suspect that the Covid situation was a stalking horse to bail out gamblers in Wall Street. Sure as hell the gamblers made out like bandits from the "CARES" act.

nafod wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 1:06 pm
Banks that are too big to fail are too big, period. It will take onerous regulations to fix that, something I have zero trust in Trump to put forward.
The last person who seriously talked about taking on Mr Bank ran into a problem during a campaign event in Dallas. Nobody since that time failed to learn from it.

Whether the CIA did it, the Mob did it, the Military did it, or Oswald did it - Oswald got the credit and a former Chicago bag man shut Oswald's mouth. The bag man died of cancer shortly thereafter.

Too damn much synchronicity for my liking. I don't know who did it but I trust a conniver like FDR = "In politics nothing happens by accident. If it happens you can bet it was planned that way" said he.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Sangoma » Mon Jun 15, 2020 6:04 am

Perry Kaufmann, a well known quant, said that as long as the general public is uncertain why the market is rising, or expects it to go down, or the economic numbers are confusing, stock prices will continue to rise.

Lots of commentators talk about false rally, or recent rise being some or the other Fibonacci level retracement or some Elliot wave component of the impending bear market, and the bears keep getting burned.

To be honest I am watching the markets with great interest. No real dog in the fight, but a really fun show. Where it's all going to end anybody's guess. Lots of predictions, from Dow hitting 30,000 this year to the collapse of the debt bubble.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by nafod » Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:58 pm

Gene wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:27 pm
I suspect that Obama's Regulatory Over-reach created pent up demand. Anyone could have duplicated Trump's "successes" if they weren't so hide bound in controlling the economy like Obama.
I suspect that the huge increase in deficit spending created demand. I agree that anyone can spend money they don't have, like Trump has always done, and live high on the hog...for a while.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Gene » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:43 pm

nafod wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 1:58 pm
Gene wrote:
Sun Jun 14, 2020 4:27 pm
I suspect that Obama's Regulatory Over-reach created pent up demand. Anyone could have duplicated Trump's "successes" if they weren't so hide bound in controlling the economy like Obama.
I suspect that the huge increase in deficit spending created demand. I agree that anyone can spend money they don't have, like Trump has always done, and live high on the hog...for a while.
According to the Committee for a Responsible Budget, Federal spending has grown $800 billion. That's 20.8 percent of the GDP to 21 percent of the GDP.

Are you going to lay the Trump expansion of the economy at the feet of an $800 billion or 0.2 percent difference in the Federal budget wrt a 20 something trillion economy?

Don't buy it.

Heritage states that Obama added about $100 billion to compliance costs by 2016. Added.

https://www.heritage.org/government-reg ... n-annually

I am not clear if these differences included estimated Opportunity Costs from stifling economic activity.

Obama reduced paperwork costs. They were a sum total of $6.4 billion.

https://www.americanactionforum.org/ins ... ama-trump/


Trump tossed out not just Obama's midnight regulations, so important that he couldn't impose them until after he left office, but also relaxed "Climate change" remediation regs. Relaxed them. All of the diarrhea about ending climate change regs was just complaints about "loss of progress".

Ending involvement in the Paris Treaty probably improved US economic activity.


Consumer credit remained Stable between 2016 to 2020. Where did the borrowed money come from?
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Gene » Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:48 pm

One could appeal to Military Keynesianism.

The Pentagon budget under Bush peaked in 2010. Hasn't gone up in terms of either money or percent of GDP.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by nafod » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:11 pm

Gene wrote:
Mon Jun 15, 2020 3:43 pm
Are you going to lay the Trump expansion of the economy at the feet of an $800 billion or 0.2 percent difference in the Federal budget wrt a 20 something trillion economy?

Don't buy it.
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What did we get for that debt increase? Stay the course.

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Trump must have really steepened the curve on homeowner income. Not.

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Gene » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:12 pm

My take on it?

Covid bailouts. This shit was starting in the Repo market last fall. Some one clever figured out how to generalize it.

Covid itself is novel but not terribly lethal. As of May 22 they are estimating 0.4 percent of people who show symptoms and have Covid will die.


"The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/c ... index.html

The people who architected this scam knew how to manage it. Inflate the deaths, ignore comorbidity, and getting everyone upset.


Lockdowns hammer Main Street.

The proles get a teeny tiny check.

Wall Street gets money to cover the gambling debts.

Progressives get distracted by fantasies of defending Public Health and the promise of a Green New Deal. As an added bonus they get to relive the 1960s, protesting Vietnam and Civil Rights marches. Older Progressives can't pass this one up.

Conservatives get to hunker down and be pessmistic, something that a lot of them like to do. They love it. A country boy can survive and so on. They also get to watch the Progressives immolate themselves, something that a lot of them like to do.

Most of the riots were in Progressive controlled areas. Confidence in their rule takes a hit.



Average people watch their Dollars turn into pretty asswipe.

Wall Street makes out. As always.

To paraphrase Solzhenitsyn - "Oh you stupid dolts!".
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Gene » Mon Jun 15, 2020 4:13 pm

Who said that I believe in Trump?

I like some of what he is doing. I hate some of what he is doing.

I voted for the doper in 2016.
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Fat Cat » Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:18 am

Fat Cat wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 5:27 pm
Luke wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 2:09 am
Fat Cat wrote:
Mon May 11, 2020 5:42 pm
Paul Krugman is an absolute faggot who's made a career out of being wrong about anything and everything.
Hahahah! I definitely can see why you'd feel that way. I've never come across his work before - and take it that publication goes left?
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Well here's something our fine Hebrew columnist can do well, download child pornography: https://thehill.com/homenews/media/4774 ... graphy?amp
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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by nafod » Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:33 am

“The stock market is just a graph of rich people's feelings.”

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Re: Would someone explain why the stock market is soaring when we are facing a devasting depression

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:45 am

401ks and pensions have to put their money there and make about 8% return. And the Fed has signalled they"ll add prop it up.

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