Election Predictions

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Election Prediction (President, Senate, House)

President- Biden; Senate- D flip; House- D hold
5
45%
President- Biden; Senate- D flip; House- R flip
0
No votes
President- Biden; Senate- R hold; House- D hold
3
27%
President- Biden; Senate- R hold; House- R flip
1
9%
President- Trump; Senate- D flip; House- D hold
0
No votes
President- Trump; Senate- D flip; House- R flip
0
No votes
President- Trump; Senate- R hold; House- D hold
2
18%
President- Trump; Senate- R hold; House- R flip
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 11

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Turdacious
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Election Predictions

Post by Turdacious » Mon Oct 12, 2020 3:07 am

Sangoma had an excellent suggestion. How do you predict teh election will turn out? If the Senate goes 50/50, then the President's party wins. In 2016 FWIW, I believed the polls and went 0-3.
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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:04 pm

I think it's going to be a total bloodbath for the Republicans. Trump is looking more unhinged by the day. The Senate forcing Barrett through after they blocked Obama's pick by saying there shouldn't be a SC seat filled close to an election. Actual economy, not the stock markets, looking pretty grim for the lower working class. Social unrest like we haven't seen in maybe a generation. A pandemic that sees the US leading the world in infections and deaths.
People are hurting and they're going to lash out at the only ones they can - they're going to vote the current ruling party out of office and hope for something better. Doesn't matter where any actual blame lies. Of course, they fail to realize there isn't a C hair's worth of difference between the policies they'll get with a Democrat in the WH and Dems controlling both houses vs. the Republicans.
I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see ol' Turtle neck get shown the door. Lindsey Graham as well.
Last edited by Alfred_E._Neuman on Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I don't have a lot of experience with vampires, but I have hunted werewolves. I shot one once, but by the time I got to it, it had turned back into my neighbor's dog.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:13 pm

I just wish Pelosi would get the ax as well. She's one of the more useless human beings on the planet.
I don't have a lot of experience with vampires, but I have hunted werewolves. I shot one once, but by the time I got to it, it had turned back into my neighbor's dog.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Ronald RayGun » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:41 am

I write-in Dr. Doom ... again.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Turdacious » Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:47 am

Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:04 pm
I think it's going to be a total bloodbath for the Republicans. Trump is looking more unhinged by the day. The Senate forcing Barrett through after they blocked Obama's pick by saying there shouldn't be a SC seat filled close to an election. Actual economy, not the stock markets, looking pretty grim for the lower working class. Social unrest like we haven't seen in maybe a generation. A pandemic that sees the US leading the world in infections and deaths.
People are hurting and they're going to lash out at the only ones they can - they're going to vote the current ruling party out of office and hope for something better. Doesn't matter where any actual blame lies. Of course, they fail to realize there isn't a C hair's worth of difference between the policies they'll get with a Democrat in the WH and Dems controlling both houses vs. the Republicans.
I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see ol' Turtle neck get shown the door. Lindsey Graham as well.
I think a lot of people are forecasting that outcome on both sides of teh aisle, but what odds would you lay on that? I'm surprised at how many people I know who are: quiet about their political preferences; willing to vote either way depending on the candidates; and are probably going to vote Republican in the next election despite a visceral dislike of teh Orange One. I've been surprised that immigrants and children of immigrants that I know seem to be leaning Republican this election-- I didn't expect that.

My suspicion (60/40) is that Biden's likeability relative to Trump will propel him to a solid victory, but I have no idea (pick' em) whether what that will mean in Senate and House races.
"Liberalism is arbitrarily selective in its choice of whose dignity to champion." Adrian Vermeule

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Schlegel » Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:46 am

It ought to be an easy win for the Dems. But honestly their sheer incompetence at pretending to be regular normal people is shocking. If they lose the presidency it's 100% an own goal.
"Why do we need a kitchen when we have a phone?"

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:18 am

Turdacious wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:47 am
Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Mon Oct 12, 2020 11:04 pm
I think it's going to be a total bloodbath for the Republicans. Trump is looking more unhinged by the day. The Senate forcing Barrett through after they blocked Obama's pick by saying there shouldn't be a SC seat filled close to an election. Actual economy, not the stock markets, looking pretty grim for the lower working class. Social unrest like we haven't seen in maybe a generation. A pandemic that sees the US leading the world in infections and deaths.
People are hurting and they're going to lash out at the only ones they can - they're going to vote the current ruling party out of office and hope for something better. Doesn't matter where any actual blame lies. Of course, they fail to realize there isn't a C hair's worth of difference between the policies they'll get with a Democrat in the WH and Dems controlling both houses vs. the Republicans.
I honestly wouldn't be shocked to see ol' Turtle neck get shown the door. Lindsey Graham as well.
I think a lot of people are forecasting that outcome on both sides of teh aisle, but what odds would you lay on that? I'm surprised at how many people I know who are: quiet about their political preferences; willing to vote either way depending on the candidates; and are probably going to vote Republican in the next election despite a visceral dislike of teh Orange One. I've been surprised that immigrants and children of immigrants that I know seem to be leaning Republican this election-- I didn't expect that.

My suspicion (60/40) is that Biden's likeability relative to Trump will propel him to a solid victory, but I have no idea (pick' em) whether what that will mean in Senate and House races.
I'd go as high as 75/25 on Biden winning, but only 50/50 on the Senate getting flipped. I'm pretty confident in the House remaining solidly D and maybe picking up a slightly larger majority.
Apparently GA just set a record for opening day of our early voting. My hunch is that's not Trump people heading out to vote in their Orange God. That's people heading out to vote against him. If he loses a state like GA, he's toast in other states as well.
I don't have a lot of experience with vampires, but I have hunted werewolves. I shot one once, but by the time I got to it, it had turned back into my neighbor's dog.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:21 am

Schlegel wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 2:46 am
It ought to be an easy win for the Dems. But honestly their sheer incompetence at pretending to be regular normal people is shocking. If they lose the presidency it's 100% an own goal.
Pelosi's ice cream stunt on whatever late night talk show that was is a prime example. During the height of our economic lock down, she gets interviewed at home in her mansion in front of two refrigerators in her massive kitchen that probably cost more than my car. Then proceeds to talk about how her family is beating the coronavirus stress by having top shelf ice cream shipped in. While Americans were terrified of when their next paycheck might come, if at all. Unbelievable.
I don't have a lot of experience with vampires, but I have hunted werewolves. I shot one once, but by the time I got to it, it had turned back into my neighbor's dog.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:19 pm

Polls moving into bloodbath territory, but not decisive. a 7 point polling error has happened twice, and if Biden's ~10 ahead in polls, the number is really +3 Biden on election day, then Trump is in range to lose popular vote but win E.C. No rule saying the polling error has to be in Trump's favor though.

I'd lay 5:1 on Biden and 2:1 on Democratic Senate all day long, but not 10:1 Biden or 5:1 Senate. There is time for stuff to change.
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by lasalle » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:01 pm

Prediction: Biden wins the popular vote going away. The EC numbers are a squeaker, but Biden eventually takes it. However, as soon as the first flyover state + Florida predict a Trump win on Election night, he gets on Twitter to declare victory. He continues to declare victory and fraud for the next 3-8 weeks, and it somehow ends up in the supreme court. He leaves kicking and screaming in January, having salted the earth on his retreat and dooming us to 4 more years of being split (roughly) down the middle.

Senate: close, but it flips.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Wed Oct 14, 2020 3:46 am

What I predicted isn't what I want.
I've doubted our very stable genius president in the past and he's proven me wrong. I hope I'm wrong this time too.
A Biden win and a Dem senate is almost of USA event horizon significance IMO
I thought we might have a couple of hundred years left in a proud strong & prospersous constitutional US but that optimism is waning dramatically.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by nafod » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:02 pm

We are in this flip-flop era of going D-R-D-R...

That’s not normal, and needs pondering on why it is that way.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:22 pm

Not a Trump guy but he'll go close to Nixon in 1972 levels. Depressed black turnout and the Hispanics (esp mexicans) will break heavy towards him because they hate the mayates and DEMs went BLM. He'll get most hispanics ever for a GOP candidate.

I'm in mf'ing Biden ground zero territory and no signage or bumler stickers. The guy is just a loser.

The GOP will sandbag the House races to keep a leash on Trump. DEMs hold House.

GOP picks up 2-3 Senate seats.

GOP will probably remove Trump w/in the year like they did with Nixon but the formula is in place for a few decades of GOP dominance.

Anyone who thinks an incumbent is going to get blown out at an historic level by a broke dick old man is a cordycepted fool

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Fat Cat » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:31 pm

Ronald RayGun wrote:
Tue Oct 13, 2020 1:41 am
I write-in Dr. Doom ... again.
I fully support a Von Doom administration. Latveria as 51st state of the Union! The new capitol is Doomstadt.
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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Bennyonesix1 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:45 pm

Imagine thinking a ~5% response rate makes for good polls.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by Turdacious » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:38 am

So who got it right (assuming republicans win both senate seats in GA)? My overall prediction was right but I didn’t see republicans picking up this many seats in the house or outperforming trump in a lot of senate contests. At least this time I knew the polls were substantially flawed.
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Re: Election Predictions

Post by nafod » Sun Nov 15, 2020 4:06 pm

Not me. I thought the senate would flip too. But too much antifa-ing and defund the police this summer. Knew that would hurt.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Mon Nov 16, 2020 1:08 am

The White power structure's chicanery shall not stand!
From Forbes
Rudy Giuliani Claims He Has Proof Of Voter Fraud, But Says He Can’t Share It Yet
Our formerly orange overlord will prevail when Rudy reveals his righteous truth.

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Re: Election Predictions

Post by nafod » Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:34 pm

This is just so bizarre
Don’t believe everything you think.

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