Economics and Emigration

[Sangoma]

He is arguing that opening the borders can increase the world GDP manyfold (hence trillion dollar bills left on the sidewalk). If this is correct then everyone will greatly benefit from the result. Tradeoff wise - is it ever otherwise?

[nafod]

The conclusions aren't really counterintuitive-- he's arguing that the welfare gains for the migrant, the family of the migrant receiving the remittances back in their home country, the economy of the country where the remittances are sent, and laborers in the migrant's home country that face less job competition outweigh the welfare losses for US laborers competing with migrants.

To be precise up front, he is saying it is all good for the emigrant. For the non-immigrant he is saying, wages may fall in the rich area while rising in the poor, but capital rises in the rich while falling in the poor, but overall bet gains of 20-60% of global GDP. page 3 in the PDF

This has been the key struggle in globalization, how to make sure the rising tide raises all boats and not just Capital’s boat, the richest 1%.

[Turdacious]

The conclusions aren't really counterintuitive-- he's arguing that the welfare gains for the migrant, the family of the migrant receiving the remittances back in their home country, the economy of the country where the remittances are sent, and laborers in the migrant's home country that face less job competition outweigh the welfare losses for US laborers competing with migrants.

To be precise up front, he is saying it is all good for the emigrant. For the non-immigrant he is saying, wages may fall in the rich area while rising in the poor, but capital rises in the rich while falling in the poor, but overall bet gains of 20-60% of global GDP. page 3 in the PDF

This has been the key struggle in globalization, how to make sure the rising tide raises all boats and not just Capital’s boat, the richest 1%.

I think you're still missing a key point here-- business owners benefit because migration increases labor supply, which allows them to reduce labor cost. Domestic labor is the group that loses-- hardly the 1%.

To sum up: Capital and migrant labor wins, domestic labor loses.

You can try an experiment at work to see how this works-- suggest replacing non-superstar tenured faculty with adjuncts. After all, this would allow the university to reduce the cost of education and pass that cost reduction onto students-- the total welfare benefit would surely exceed the cost. Surely the students would be better off not taking courses from someone who hasn't published anything in years, isn't an effective PhD advisor, and collects a fat paycheck for teaching one course per quarter when not on 'sabbatical.' I'm guessing this will get 0% support at the next staff meeting.

[Turdacious]

He is arguing that opening the borders can increase the world GDP manyfold (hence trillion dollar bills left on the sidewalk). If this is correct then everyone will greatly benefit from the result. Tradeoff wise - is it ever otherwise?

You have a strange definition of everyone-- in the journal article I posted by Borjas, he spoke of a 10-30% reduction in earnings for unskilled labor. That's real money for people living just above the poverty line.

Aren't you the one who loves to argue that economics is a bullshit science? Why is this article so convincing to you?

[Turdacious]

Nafod's brain has slowly rotted since he began his infatuation with the pantsuited one.

I prescribe the following: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=209649&sid=842f17c7 ... 0d6fa87a74

[nafod]

Turd stupidly thinks the economics of trade is a zero sum game. Must have attended Trump University.

[Fat Cat]

https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/11/overw ... Gs.twitter

But money!

[Fat Cat]

Yes, I have been drinking.

Typical Russian.

But the point stands: skill is not black and white but a scale. The guy in my example is unskilled labour, in spite of being a scientist in his own country. Yet I believe he is a contribution to the country he immigrated to.

Maybe he is, I can't say. But then again, I doubt Australia had any pressing shortage of taxi drivers. Regardless, you are talking about a single, legal immigrant. Not really meaningful is it?

I wish you stopped with the Russian thing, but whatever, I guess it's too exotic to give up. If anything though Russia did less to the rest of the world than the West, Europe and America combined

Russia invaded, occupied, and oppressed for decades: Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Germany, Finland, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova. Not to mention pumping nauseating bolshevik lies and misery to the rest of the world for 60 years? Would you care to amend your analysis?

I am not trying to pretend the world is fair, everybody else seems to. I posted this article for one reason: it seems to be looking at the problem from a different perspective and comes up to counterintuitive - not necessarily undisputable - conclusions.

It's an attempt to place another cobblestone on the path to the globalist swamp that certain stateless powers would love to see, where no nation of like-minded people remains to contest their hegemony. I know you're a good person, don't fall for it.

[nafod]

https://voiceofeurope.com/2018/11/overw ... Gs.twitter

But money!

Asylum from war is a different thing. Syria was actually a reasonable place to live prior to the ongoing cluster-#$%.

[Fat Cat]

Who cares? They can't come in.

[Turdacious]

Nothing’s cuter than when progressives claim they understand basic economics.

[Fat Cat]

Yale Study Finds Twice as Many Undocumented Immigrants as Previous Estimates



Generally accepted estimates put the population of undocumented immigrants in the United States at approximately 11.3 million. A new study, using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, suggests that the actual undocumented immigrant population may be more than 22 million.

Immigration is the focus of fierce political and policy debate in the United States. Among the most contentious issues is how the country should address undocumented immigrants. Like a tornado that won’t dissipate, arguments have spun around and around for years. At the center lies a fairly stable and largely unquestioned number: 11.3 million undocumented immigrants residing in the U.S. But a paper by three Yale-affiliated researchers suggests all the perceptions and arguments based on that number may have a faulty foundation; the actual population of undocumented immigrants residing in the country is much larger than that, perhaps twice as high, and has been underestimated for decades.

Using mathematical modeling on a range of demographic and immigration operations data, the researchers estimate there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States. Even using parameters intentionally aimed at producing an extremely conservative estimate, they found a population of 16.7 million undocumented immigrants.

The results, published in PLOS ONE, surprised the authors themselves. They started with the extremely conservative model and expected the results to be well below 11.3 million.

“Our original idea was just to do a sanity check on the existing number,” says Edward Kaplan, the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Operations Research at the Yale School of Management. “Instead of a number which was smaller, we got a number that was 50% higher. That caused us to scratch our heads.”

Full article: https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/ ... s-estimate

[Fat Cat]

[nafod]

That’s a dumb chart, since it completely ignores that taxes paid by, for example, the slaughterhouses that depend on the illegal labor. The places that require their labor.

[Fat Cat]

You think the meatpackers and tomato farmers are making up the $118 billion slack? Really?

[nafod]

You think the meatpackers and tomato farmers are making up the $118 billion slack? Really?

I think if you leave them out, along with the service industries of restaurants and hotels, you are presenting completely bogus numbers. Might as well just make stuff up.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... 6db8d328fc

Eleven percent of all U.S. restaurant and bar employees are undocumented immigrants...In major cities, you’re talking about a restaurant workforce that is maybe 75 percent foreign-born, and maybe 30 to 40 percent undocumente

Restaurant industry is $800 Billion/year
https://www.restaurant.org/News-Researc ... t-a-Glance

[Gene]

Clinton praised Angela Merkel for her "generosity" (Merkel recently walked back her earlier "open door" policy for migrants and many believe her handling of the crisis led to the drop in popularity for her party that inspired her not to seek a fifth term) before adding that the governments of Germany and others need to signal that they are "not going to be able to continue to provide refuge and support."

"I think Europe needs to get a handle on migration because that is what lit the flame," Clinton said, speaking as part of a series of interviews with senior centrist political figures about the rise of populists, particularly on the right, in Europe and the Americas.

"I admire the very generous and compassionate approaches that were taken particularly by leaders like Angela Merkel, but I think it is fair to say Europe has done its part, and must send a very clear message – 'we are not going to be able to continue provide refuge and support' – because if we don’t deal with the migration issue it will continue to roil the body politic."

As a reminder, Europe has struggled with the arrival of more than 1 million migrants since 2015, prompting an anti-establishment backlash and straining social services at a time when stagnant economic growth and simmering debt crises were already contributing to record youth unemployment and stagnant growth throughout much of the Continent.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11- ... ped-create

[Gene]

We had a few families of Romanians move in, in California PA. They kill livestock and some complain of kids shitting in the streets. They're Romi which means that they look South Asian. BFD.

"On Thursday, at a standing-room-only meeting of California council, some accused the newcomers of hazardous driving, shoplifting, defecating in public, accumulating refuse in their yards and slaughtering chickens in view of neighbors. "

"Police Chief Rick Encapera acknowledged there have been incidents of defecation and at least one traffic citation issued to an immigrant in a hit-and-run accident. "

https://triblive.com/local/regional/125 ... ia-borough

These folks hold down jobs. They work. Some complain of trouble with speaking English, and few around here know Romanian.



I work with naturalized citizens and green card holders. There are one or two who carry so much weight technically that if they quit or retired we'd be in deep shit.

The main issue I see with immigrants is learning colloquial American English. Some of them are really good technical people who are ignored because they cannot speak English well. Anyone who ignores them is a damn fool.

[nafod]

This is a worthy editorial by George Schultz, who has got a serious resume...

George P. Shultz is a former secretary of state, labor and treasury and a former director of the Office of Management and Budget.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 371bf7dd5c

He basically argues we need to help make the Central American countries less of a shit hole so people have opportunity, and a key part of that is to stop funding the gangs by changing our approach to drugs.

[Turdacious]

This is a worthy editorial by George Schultz, who has got a serious resume...

George P. Shultz is a former secretary of state, labor and treasury and a former director of the Office of Management and Budget.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 371bf7dd5c

He basically argues we need to help make the Central American countries less of a shit hole so people have opportunity, and a key part of that is to stop funding the gangs by changing our approach to drugs.

Spending on public health initiatives in those countries is a great idea; international donor funded public health projects in those countries is generally a terrible idea— unless bill gates does it, it generally turns out badly.

[Fat Cat]

This is a worthy editorial by George Schultz, who has got a serious resume...

George P. Shultz is a former secretary of state, labor and treasury and a former director of the Office of Management and Budget.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... 371bf7dd5c

He basically argues we need to help make the Central American countries less of a shit hole so people have opportunity, and a key part of that is to stop funding the gangs by changing our approach to drugs.

It would be very hard to argue with any of that. But you can dilate that approach to most of the migration crisis.

1. Stop creating fucked up places like Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan with our interventionist globalist policies.
2. Focus humanitarian aid on the ground in the places of origin.
3. Stop allowing mass immigration as it only encourages further waves by brutally crushing the gangs that support it.
4. Deport all illegal immigrants across North America and Europe.
5. Profit.

[nafod]

3. Stop allowing mass immigration as it only encourages further waves by brutally crushing the gangs that support it.

I'll take this to mean "help make the places they are coming from less shitholes." I'm with you 100%

I think it is important to note that Trump's threats and efforts to create a deterrence have failed. Not working, 2 years in.

When you are being threatened with death back in Hondurastan or wherever, you'll try anything to save your own life, and more to save the life of your children. Deterrence isn't working. It is right up there with the war on drugs for bad policy.

[Fat Cat]

Reached by phone in Kansas City, [Denys Adelmo] Mejia said he saved thousands of dollars by traveling with a child. His smuggler would have charged $10,000 if he had been traveling alone, he said; with Elizabeth Dayana, it cost $4,500 for both of them. He has three years to pay this off — in monthly installments — or his mother could lose her house.

“When you come with a child, [the smuggler] only delivers you to the Border Patrol,” said Mejia. “When you’re coming alone, they have to take you all the way across the desert.”

The loopholes have been created, cheered, and widened by American progressives, including lawyers at the ACLU and many elite legal firms, activists at pro-migration groups, Democrats in Congress, and reporters in many media outlets. The resulting inflow of illegal immigrants is cheered on by business groups because it delivers new wage-cutting workers and more consumers to their doors.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na ... d66ec22179

[Fat Cat]

3. Stop allowing mass immigration as it only encourages further waves by brutally crushing the gangs that support it.

I'll take this to mean "help make the places they are coming from less shitholes." I'm with you 100%

I think it is important to note that Trump's threats and efforts to create a deterrence have failed. Not working, 2 years in.

When you are being threatened with death back in Hondurastan or wherever, you'll try anything to save your own life, and more to save the life of your children. Deterrence isn't working. It is right up there with the war on drugs for bad policy.

I am certainly game to try to help countries with their problems, but these need to be dealt with at their root, not by exporting the problem. At a certain point, you WANT a situation to become so pressurized that it reaches a crisis which must be dealt with, rather than just fester interminably and infect everything around it. This is what is happening now.

As for Trump's threats not working, I think you're wrong:

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-mete ... rump-said/

Fewer people are illegally trying to enter the US across the southern border than has been the case in many years.

Finally, the human smugglers and the gangs in Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala that fuel them should all be turned into dog food by JSOC. They are a threat to the security of the nation and the hemisphere and they should all die by the sword.