Thinking In Bets

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 3:52 am

Book by former professional poker player Annie Duke about using applied probability to improve decision making. The concept is great-- judge decisions by the odds of success rather than just by outcome (which could just be luck). She uses a lot of examples from the professional gambling world which made for great stories. As the book goes along, I kept expecting it to devolve into filler, but she kept adding a professional gambler's logic and best practices to basic concepts in interesting ways. It's kind of a more accessible mix between Daniel Kahneman and Nassim Taleb. I liked it a lot.

Grandpa's Spells · Post by **Grandpa's Spells** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:42 pm

Annie Duke is Matt Furey of poker.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:58 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:42 pm Annie Duke is Matt Furey of poker.

Eh? Go on...

Fat Cat · Post by **Fat Cat** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:20 pm

Gambling is for degenerates.

Grandpa's Spells · Post by **Grandpa's Spells** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:37 pm

Turdacious wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:58 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:42 pm Annie Duke is Matt Furey of poker.
Eh? Go on...

She tends to just-so-happen to be involved in high profile business failures that involve money going missing.

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/2 ... annie-duke
https://www.playusa.com/annie-duke-cnbc-interview/

He record as a player suggests a period of running well when the game was softer.

tl/dr scam artist of middling ability.

Kazuya Mishima · Post by **Kazuya Mishima** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:13 pm

(((Annie Duke)))

Srsly.

Bram · Post by **Bram** » Thu Oct 17, 2019 8:33 pm

I've always found game theory to be fascinating, but difficult to find resources in a way that is easily accessible for my mind.

Thanks for the rec!

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:09 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:37 pm
Turdacious wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:58 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:42 pm Annie Duke is Matt Furey of poker.
Eh? Go on...
She tends to just-so-happen to be involved in high profile business failures that involve money going missing.

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/2 ... annie-duke
https://www.playusa.com/annie-duke-cnbc-interview/

He record as a player suggests a period of running well when the game was softer.

tl/dr scam artist of middling ability.

I was wondering why she quit being a professional gambler. I mean why quit when you're eleeete and you love it. I had no idea about the rest.

That said, the book is still excellent.

vern · Post by **vern** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:46 pm

Don't worry about the odds, just embezzle from your bank and bet $70,000 per hand!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owning_Mahowny

(An underrated Phillip Seymour Hoffman film IMO.)

Tirofijo · Post by **Tirofijo** » Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:31 am

Turdacious wrote: ↑Fri Oct 18, 2019 4:09 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:37 pm
Turdacious wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:58 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 4:42 pm Annie Duke is Matt Furey of poker.
Eh? Go on...
She tends to just-so-happen to be involved in high profile business failures that involve money going missing.

https://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/2 ... annie-duke
https://www.playusa.com/annie-duke-cnbc-interview/

He record as a player suggests a period of running well when the game was softer.

tl/dr scam artist of middling ability.
I was wondering why she quit being a professional gambler. I mean why quit when you're eleeete and you love it. I had no idea about the rest.

That said, the book is still excellent.

I haven't read the book but did catch her on the Peter Attia podcast.

She stated that the game has evolved and players are so refined that the top guys now have to do so much math in there heads. She said she wouldn't have been able to keep up.

She makes a persuasive argument that poker is the ultimate game to teach decision making since it deals with both chance and incomplete information. Compare that to chess, which doesn't involve chance and the players have complete information.

Protobuilder · Post by **Protobuilder** » Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:05 pm

"___________ is the Matt Furey of _____________" is sort of a standard insult.

DrDonkeyLove... · Post by **DrDonkeyLove...** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 7:56 pm

I found it to be a surprisingly worthy read. Good info on how humans react based on beliefs vs. doing the hard work of reasoning.

I was familiar with "confirmation bias and "cognitive dissonance" but had never heard of "motivated reasoning" before. The concept that all decisions are essentially bets, and that the odds are that a great decision could have a horrible outcome and a poor decision could have a great outcome is worth keeping in mind because luck is always a factor, as well as unknown or unknowable influencers.

Sangoma · Post by **Sangoma** » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:12 pm

Fat Cat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 17, 2019 5:20 pm Gambling is for degenerates.

Gambling attracts degenerates and because of that seems to be dominated by them. However, like with any other activity, it's how you do it makes a difference.

Everybody gambles in one form or another. Starting a business, changing a job, investing, getting married (1:1 odds of it not working) and everything else. You just have to know what you are doing. Risk management is the most important thing in this. In the stork market it is size and stops. It's pretty much the same everywhere else.

IGX

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