Wu Flu

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seeahill
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by seeahill » Tue Mar 10, 2020 1:06 pm

I mailed a case of Vaseline to Gav. Pray to God he gets it.
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Grandpa's Spells
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Wed Mar 11, 2020 4:35 am

We are two weeks behind Italy, and Italy is now considered to have locked down too late.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:43 pm

Those million test kits apparently didn't include RNA extraction kits, which are backordered because other countries bought them first.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/12 ... 2829744128

South Korea has apparently managed this well by massive testing, which the US will be unable to do before we catch up to where Italy was a couple days ago.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:02 am

Spells, a few days ago when we had 15 cases Der Pumpkin Von Malarkatron promised us it's be down to one or zero in just a bit. Not sure why you are worried.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:53 am

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:43 pm
Those million test kits apparently didn't include RNA extraction kits, which are backordered because other countries bought them first.

https://twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/12 ... 2829744128

South Korea has apparently managed this well by massive testing, which the US will be unable to do before we catch up to where Italy was a couple days ago.
Oh please. The appropriation request hasn’t even gotten out of the house
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am

Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:03 am

Gav wrote:
Sat Mar 07, 2020 10:17 pm
Lockdown is starting here in some pretty important places.
How are things now? Anything you wish you’d done say, 11 days ago?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:05 am

Sangoma wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am
Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
This is flatly wrong. If you slow the pace of transmission you can prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Testing heavily and then aggressively contacting exposed people to quarantine/test can and has slowed transmission in South Korea.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 am

Sangoma wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am
Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
That seems strange and counterintuitive.

It seems to me that the doing everything possible to identify and quarantine people with the corona is essential to slowing the spread? And that you can't do this without aggressively testing people who were potentially exposed.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:33 am

The NBA just suspended its season. Possible infection in one of the coaches for one of the teams in teh Big 10 tournament-- wonder if the NCAA tournaments will be next.
https://www.cbssports.com/general/news/ ... d-19/live/
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 am

newguy wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 am
Sangoma wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am
Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
That seems strange and counterintuitive.

It seems to me that the doing everything possible to identify and quarantine people with the corona is essential to slowing the spread? And that you can't do this without aggressively testing people who were potentially exposed.
As I understand it mass testing wouldn't really help. An infected person is contagious at the beginning of the incubation period (the period of time from when they contract the virus to when they first display symptoms), and the incubation period lasts several days. It's kind of like flu season-- people get sick in waves, not all at the same time (even within households).


This is the best overview I've seen or heard (there's some good info at the CIDRAP website too, but its serially disorganized). For most of us here-- not really at severe risk and neither are our kids. Our parents on the other hand are a different story. Old age plus other risk factors (obesity, upper respiratory issues, high blood pressure, smoking, heart disease, etc...) increase risk of death and severe sickness significantly.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:28 pm

Sangoma wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am
Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
When you understand that the entire collective community is the patient, then it makes sense.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:18 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:55 am
newguy wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 am
Sangoma wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:58 am
Mass testing is one of the theatricals adored by the public. Doesn't change anything, even for severely ill patients, as there is no effective anti-viral for COVID-19.
That seems strange and counterintuitive.

It seems to me that the doing everything possible to identify and quarantine people with the corona is essential to slowing the spread? And that you can't do this without aggressively testing people who were potentially exposed.
As I understand it mass testing wouldn't really help. An infected person is contagious at the beginning of the incubation period (the period of time from when they contract the virus to when they first display symptoms), and the incubation period lasts several days. It's kind of like flu season-- people get sick in waves, not all at the same time (even within households).


This is the best overview I've seen or heard (there's some good info at the CIDRAP website too, but its serially disorganized). For most of us here-- not really at severe risk and neither are our kids. Our parents on the other hand are a different story. Old age plus other risk factors (obesity, upper respiratory issues, high blood pressure, smoking, heart disease, etc...) increase risk of death and severe sickness significantly.
I know there is a cost/benefit thing. But to me it still seems like aggressive testing can shorten the window of exposure.

But let's say I am sick. I get tested. Turns out I have Corona. Clearly there was a time lapse of X days where I've exposed people. But now you aggressively test people I'm associated with. Catch them earlier than I was caught hopefully and limit their time of exposure. And if one of them has it then test their people.

The earlier you can catch the earlier you can quarantine?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:49 pm

Ok I’m not dead. Tim thanks for the Vaseline it bought back memories.
Current situation is, everything shut apart from supermarkets/food shops and chemists (drug stores). Lots of categories are off work, many are still working. I just came home to put myself in self isolation and the streets are eerily quiet.
Unfortunately my wife has just found out a colleague of hers is positive and is now quarantined at home, hence why I’ve had to come home.
To answer Spells, many people have taken it too lightly over here, myself included. I went running with a few teammates at the weekend which wasn’t the brightest thing to do. My advice to you over there is to follow all the precautions they talk about on the news and expect it to get miles worse.
If you have any other questions shoot. I’m at home with fuck all to do. Btw, I’ve got a broken hand right now so I can’t wash my hands either 🙈
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:44 pm

GL Gav.
I know there is a cost/benefit thing. But to me it still seems like aggressive testing can shorten the window of exposure.
Yeah, for a simpler example, both my kids are coughing, one had a fever. Took them to doctor Saturday and neither can be tested.

If they are positive for COVID 19, I would stop going to clients, the gym, the airport, and my office, and their classmates would not go on field trips and might not go to school. Instead, the fever passed (normal for a 4 year old with COVID 19) and he goes back to school and my wife's employer wants her to travel for work. We have no known exposure to a positive-tested person, because there's no testing, so it's hard to argue for taking drastic steps.

This isn't mysterious. There's a whole thing about flattening the curve so hospitals can keep up and it's extremely hard to do that without testing, since you can't practically self-quarantine when all have you have to go on is a kid's cough.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:06 pm

Good luck with the kiddos!
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:09 pm

I don’t want to get into an age old argument about private vs national health but I think you’ll be severely penalised in the states as far as testing is concerned. I read the tests are like 3000$ over there but I didn’t know if that’s true.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm

Yea, my son lives in Colorado where its been popping up, and he called me to ask what to do since he had difficulty breathing and a cough, etc. He has mild asthma too. He’s also in-between jobs with just a catastrophic health plan coverage for the moment. I told him to go see the doctor, I’d cover the cost. Standing by for my ass raping/bill.

They said he’s clean, just a standard old virus, not our special one.

Lots of folks are going to just skip seeing the doc for cost reasons. Roll the dice, they probably don’t have it in the first place, and they’re probably not in the bad 1-2% if they do, and if they’re contagious, too bad so sad.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:39 pm

Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:06 pm
Good luck with the kiddos!
Thanks but they'll be solid. I had to pull the data for a webinar on this today. Little guys practically shrug this off.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:48 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:21 pm
Yea, my son lives in Colorado where its been popping up, and he called me to ask what to do since he had difficulty breathing and a cough, etc. He has mild asthma too. He’s also in-between jobs with just a catastrophic health plan coverage for the moment. I told him to go see the doctor, I’d cover the cost. Standing by for my ass raping/bill.

They said he’s clean, just a standard old virus, not our special one.

Lots of folks are going to just skip seeing the doc for cost reasons. Roll the dice, they probably don’t have it in the first place, and they’re probably not in the bad 1-2% if they do, and if they’re contagious, too bad so sad.
I feel for you. Not to worry though, are only 327 million of you 🙈🙈🙈
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:39 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:06 pm
Good luck with the kiddos!
Thanks but they'll be solid. I had to pull the data for a webinar on this today. Little guys practically shrug this off.
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What's the death for the sub 10 group?

Any data on infants?

And where are you pulling this from?

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Gav » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:33 pm

newguy wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:39 pm
Fat Cat wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:06 pm
Good luck with the kiddos!
Thanks but they'll be solid. I had to pull the data for a webinar on this today. Little guys practically shrug this off.
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What's the death for the sub 10 group?

Any data on infants?

And where are you pulling this from?
Almost zero.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:15 pm

Sub 10 is almost zero. Data was combined from CDC and WHO by National Geographic.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:42 pm

Trump's been in physical contact with at least two people who've since tested positive, but will not be tested. This seems like a very strange decision.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:57 pm

Testing asymptomatic patients is not useful.

[Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients]
Results:
When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.

Conclusions:
In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.
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