Wu Flu

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:13 pm

newguy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:31 pm

Seriously...does Trump come into your bedroom at night and give you handjobs or something?
Only in his dreams. Every night.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm

LOL. The things he could have done that would have been effective, like closing the borders and putting visitors in quarantine/cages, have been all shot down remember? Or would you rather take the other approach where we have a frank, honest, and long conversation about inclusion and diversity (and white privilege) in packed town halls?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:28 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm
LOL. The things he could have done that would have been effective...
He could have just been honest. That would have helped.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:37 pm

Let's give the libertarians their just due, their 'leader' went full retard recently.
http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/fe ... irus-hoax/
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:39 pm

Turdacious wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm
LOL. The things he could have done that would have been effective, like closing the borders and putting visitors in quarantine/cages, have been all shot down remember? Or would you rather take the other approach where we have a frank, honest, and long conversation about inclusion and diversity (and white privilege) in packed town halls?
Oh good lord.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by vern » Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:08 am

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Luke » Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:33 am

newguy wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:00 pm
Luke wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:19 am
Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:27 am
Christakis has been crushing it. Really really solid and nothing click baity.
I've been witnessing several doctors on Twitter - who I originally followed as completely sane human beings devoid of all politics - devolve into Trump-bashing doomsday sayers. Reminds me of otherwise highly competent soldiers mentally breaking during battle. It's been quite startling to see. Makes you appreciate the good ones.

Speaking of which, "Dr. Steve" from Opie & Anthony fame is a great rational mind in all this too (https://www.twitter.com/weirdmedicine)
I'd say any doctor who is not bashing the trump regime at this moment is probably showing their political side.

Here in the states the handling of the corona virus by the white house and congress has been an amazing mix of incompetence, negligence, and down right criminal behavior.
I listened to a podcast last night where this was laid bare. No argument from me.

Here in Australia, we watched for weeks as the China thing escalated as well - and so little was done to assess the no. of tourists or returning citizens from China and Iran. We had Chinese planes directly out of Wuhan landing at Sydney airport on the same day the government was being asked wtf was going on. They were downplaying it too, but were "treating it like a pandemic" before most of the world was, to be fair. That's being lost now they've failed to get a succinct country-wide message across.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am

Looks like we're going to go with a fast burn on this thing. Trump is taking his marching orders from Fox news and Wall Street. Sounds like he's going to tell the US to go back to business as usual next Monday.
I just hope our 180 million infected and 2.2 million dead (projected numbers I've read on an unchecked spread) happen before this house of cards collapses.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by DrDonkeyLove... » Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:59 pm

Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am
Looks like we're going to go with a fast burn on this thing. Trump is taking his marching orders from Fox news and Wall Street. Sounds like he's going to tell the US to go back to business as usual next Monday.
I just hope our 180 million infected and 2.2 million dead (projected numbers I've read on an unchecked spread) happen before this house of cards collapses.
Very curious about the numbers I'm seeing everywhere. The much forgotten pandemic of 2009 had 274,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths in the US. CDC estimates there were 55,000,000 infections. I literally don't even remember this pandemic but I don't think we had 1% of the mitigating efforts going on now.

I heard the president has a town hall today on Fox. Trump's going to Trump but hopefully Drs. Fauci, Birx, and other responsible parties will give us useful info.

I'll be interested in what Cuomo and Newsom have to say about any changes of restrictions. One would think that they're in the loop on this type of thing.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:02 pm

DrDonkeyLove... wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:59 pm
Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am
Looks like we're going to go with a fast burn on this thing. Trump is taking his marching orders from Fox news and Wall Street. Sounds like he's going to tell the US to go back to business as usual next Monday.
I just hope our 180 million infected and 2.2 million dead (projected numbers I've read on an unchecked spread) happen before this house of cards collapses.
Very curious about the numbers I'm seeing everywhere. The much forgotten pandemic of 2009 had 274,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths in the US. CDC estimates there were 55,000,000 infections. I literally don't even remember this pandemic but I don't think we had 1% of the mitigating efforts going on now.
That'd be about 0.02% fatality rate. If we hit that same level of infection with this bug, it'd be about 550K dead, assuming 1% fatality rate. A solid million if the rate skyrockets due to lack of care.

Testing, testing, testing. That's the key. Tons of cheap fast testing. Then we can control this thing.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Tue Mar 24, 2020 4:56 pm

Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:11 am
Looks like we're going to go with a fast burn on this thing. Trump is taking his marching orders from Fox news and Wall Street. Sounds like he's going to tell the US to go back to business as usual next Monday.
I just hope our 180 million infected and 2.2 million dead (projected numbers I've read on an unchecked spread) happen before this house of cards collapses.
This will have no impact on New York, California, Washington. We are under lock down and will be.

What I am thinking will happen is any community in his base states that was going to try and mitigate this will face intense resistance until it's too late.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:40 am

A friend of my wife's is the first person I know to have it and are in the bad stage of it. She and her husband are both completely laid out. Walking 15 feet to the bathroom can almost cause passing out. 5 & 7 year old are literally making their own meals. They are in their early 40s.

They're in NYC and their hospital has every ventilator full. The ER and hospital experience was very organized but scary, and they're resorting to scrappy measures already. New York actually has a fairly high number of hospital beds per capita relative to about 60% of the country.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:23 am

Where I work we are furiously engineering up PPE for the local hospital and Hershey. No surge yet, but it is coming. We’ve been meeting with docs for them to review the designs and discuss lot sizes, so they share projected numbers for planning purposes. They plan to need over 1000 face shields per month at a small local hospital, for example. They are very worried, and very appreciative. It is fubar that this is being worked this late in the game.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:33 am

Interesting thread on the utility of wearing homemade masks: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 2955181056
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am

They just wore them in the workplace in that study? Not all day? I just scanned it...
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:51 pm

Incredibly promising. And free. The trick is you need everybody to do this, which means you need federal leadership, and Sean Hannity, because even here we're still dealing with people here who think it's a hoax.

A lot of places are still going to go through hell in the few two weeks, but widespread testing should be ready soon and this could really get this under control.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:37 pm

nafod wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:28 am
They just wore them in the workplace in that study? Not all day? I just scanned it...
The data science guy in the video said 100% usage in public. Mongolia introduced it first, and despite the traffic with China has had 4 deaths. Czech Republic went from 0% to 100% usage in 10 days and have it totally under control.

This has to come along with testing, quarantining infected, and tracing contacts of infected, but when you do all four you don't need lockdowns.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm

At work and can't read much right now.
Cliff's notes on mask usage and reasoning for it working?
TIA.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:47 pm

Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
At work and can't read much right now.
Cliff's notes on mask usage and reasoning for it working?
TIA.
Masks that are not N95 quality do not protect from the virus itself. (Virus too small)

But main way virus is spread is droplets.

And surgical grade masks can prevent you from breathing droplets in. It's not 100% but it's better than nothing.

Surgical grade masks prevent people who are infected from spreading droplets out.

So with 100% mask usage you not only protect yourself, but if infected you protect others. And that combo seems to be very effective.

Which pisses me off because at the beginning of this thing all you heard was "don't get masks. Don't use masks. Save them for the healthcare workers." Everyone made you feel like a fucking selfish prick if you wore one.

Which seems to be the fucking wrong advice. It should have been - give masks to every single person in an infected region to stop the spread.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Grandpa's Spells » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm

Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
At work and can't read much right now.
Cliff's notes on mask usage and reasoning for it working?
TIA.
a primary vector a person who is infected but not symptomatic. When everybody wears masks, people don't breathe the virus into the air for others to be infected. It doesn't prevent you from getting infected like a respirator, but it stops everybody wearing them from spreading. You can cut transmission rates by 75%, which is huge.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Turdacious » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:56 pm

There's probably another effect that the study doesn't mention-- wearing a mask probably keeps people from touching their faces as much.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by newguy » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:08 pm

Grandpa's Spells wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:51 pm
Alfred_E._Neuman wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:56 pm
At work and can't read much right now.
Cliff's notes on mask usage and reasoning for it working?
TIA.
a primary vector a person who is infected but not symptomatic. When everybody wears masks, people don't breathe the virus into the air for others to be infected. It doesn't prevent you from getting infected like a respirator, but it stops everybody wearing them from spreading. You can cut transmission rates by 75%, which is huge.
My understanding was that while it does not have the same percentage of protection, it does offer more protection than wearing nothing. Because the virus is spread on droplets and surgical grade can help mitigate breathing that in.

It is enough protection to be worth it.

But yeah, when everyone wears it the difference is huge.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Alfred_E._Neuman » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:27 pm

Thanks guys.
Will look into making our own this weekend.
I have a serious mask for fumes here at work. Plenty of cartridges for is as well. Look totally badass wearing that out.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by JimZipCode » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:51 pm

Interesting tidbit in the thread: a fabric mask that would otherwise be ineffective, if you soak it in salt solution and then let it dry, it becomes very effective. Something about the salt penetrating the viral contaminate as it passes, and recrystallizing, destroying it.

Also how the mask doesn't have to stop 100% of the virus to be helpful. Just enough of it to keep the initial viral dose "low":
Image

Also says that you can re-use masks after baking them in the oven at 160 degrees for 30 mins.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod » Thu Mar 26, 2020 5:53 pm

Just want to mention that my sous vide device can precisely hold 70C (160F) for eternity. A precise 160 is tricky otherwise.

Put a mask in my ghetto sous vide cooler suspended over the water bath, close lid, and it gets the 70C and the water vapor heat effect.
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