Wu Flu

[Bennyonesix1]

The great Codevilla on lung aids

https://americanmind.org/essays/the-covid-coup/

Angelo M. Codevilla is a senior fellow of the Claremont Institute and professor emeritus of International Relations at Boston University.

He received his B.A. from Rutgers University, an M.A. from Notre Dame University, and his Ph.D. in Security Studies, U.S. Foreign Policy, and Political Theory from the Claremont Graduate School.

At Boston University since 1995, Professor Codevilla has been a U.S. Naval Officer, an Assistant Professor at the Grove City College and North Dakota State College, a U.S. Foreign Service Officer, and a member of President-Elect Reagan's Transition Teams within the U.S. Department of State. He dealt with Western Europe and with matters affecting the U.S. Intelligence Community. He served as a U.S. Senate Staff member dealing with oversight of the intelligence services, a professorial lecturer at Georgetown University and a Senior Research Fellow for the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

https://americanmind.org/author/angelo-codevilla/
And quite the background in epidemiological modeling and statistical analysis too.

But but but he isn't CREDENTIALED!

You absolute fool.

You painful midwit.

You bootlicker.

You cringing simp.

You ponderous dullard.

[Bennyonesix1]

I can get an Ivy League Expert to testify to anything I want within 2 hours. All I have to do is pay his fees. Every god damned trial has experts on opposing sides of the issues. Every one. And they all have kick ass CVs. All of them.

[Turdacious]

You painful midwit.

[Turdacious]

I can get an Ivy League Expert to testify to anything I want within 2 hours. All I have to do is pay his fees. Every god damned trial has experts on opposing sides of the issues. Every one. And they all have kick ass CVs. All of them.

Could you get this one? He's wrong too, but he uses nice charts and stuff.

KrugmanTweet.PNG (149.57 KiB) Viewed 4407 times

[Bennyonesix1]

You are profoundly tedious.

[nafod]

It's real, it's dangerous, but the cure of unprecedented government control of essentially all aspects of our lives (other than abortion and rioting) resulted in terrible and long reverberating consequences. Worth it?

Yes and no.

Yes, in that we slowed deaths while figuring out who was at risk and developing therapies, lowering the death rate. Lots of folks surviving the current surge would have died a couple of months ago.

No, in that we royally fucked away the opportunity to fully crush it while getting the testing, tracing, and PPE spun up so it became it management problem while everything opened for business. Unlike so many other countries that successfully dealt with it. We squandered March, April, and May.

We didn't get the the test/trace/PPE sorted out, so now we are repeating NY/NJ but in TX/AZ/FL/CA and others in the deep hot South (remember when the heat was going to kill it?) albeit with lower mortality rates. All while we get ready for the Fall and going back to school.

It is going to be a dumpster fire of a shit-show this Fall just as soon as a bunch of teachers at a school get it and a few of them die, shutting it all right back down.

We already lost a student here at Big State U, 21 year old with no pre-existing conditions other than a standard youthful sense of immortality.

Come on, vaccine.

[Bennyonesix1]

It would calm you down if you just accepted that you're not nearly as smart as you've been led to believe.

[nafod]

It would calm you down if you just accepted that you're not nearly as smart as you've been led to believe.

That makes sense when I picture you standing in front of a mirror.

[Bennyonesix1]

Thanks for proving my point.

[DrDonkeyLove...]

It's real, it's dangerous, but the cure of unprecedented government control of essentially all aspects of our lives (other than abortion and rioting) resulted in terrible and long reverberating consequences. Worth it?

Yes and no.

Yes, in that we slowed deaths while figuring out who was at risk and developing therapies, lowering the death rate. Lots of folks surviving the current surge would have died a couple of months ago.

No, in that we royally fucked away the opportunity to fully crush it while getting the testing, tracing, and PPE spun up so it became it management problem while everything opened for business. Unlike so many other countries that successfully dealt with it. We squandered March, April, and May.

We didn't get the the test/trace/PPE sorted out, so now we are repeating NY/NJ but in TX/AZ/FL/CA and others in the deep hot South (remember when the heat was going to kill it?) albeit with lower mortality rates. All while we get ready for the Fall and going back to school.

It is going to be a dumpster fire of a shit-show this Fall just as soon as a bunch of teachers at a school get it and a few of them die, shutting it all right back down.

We already lost a student here at Big State U, 21 year old with no pre-existing conditions other than a standard youthful sense of immortality.

Come on, vaccine.

I rely on Worldometers data down to the state and county level. My main focus is on deaths/1,000,000. I ignore 2nd & 3rd world countries and, most especially, the gulag of China. My focus is on the US, Western Europe, and Canada.

When it comes to comparing the US to our betters in Europe, the difference isn't all that great. It seems like the virus is fully committed to Farr's law and little else. Trump, Biden, Obama, etc. and we'd be just about where we are now with the virus, or worse. None of them are giants in any regard.

What troubles me extremely from the scientifical modelers is the complete lack of interest in the inevitable dire cost to society of ignoring lockdown related mental health, untreated diseases, and other deaths, along with the cost of generational poverty. It's derelict not to make this part of the national conversation.

[Bennyonesix1]

That's a good reasonable poast. Why waste it on the dullards?

[Fat Cat]

I'm not generally a fatalist, but I have been about COVID-19. Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks and the shutdown, have not been demonstrated to have much effect on stopping the spread. We've had travel shut down since March and we had our highest single-day spread today, with 55 new cases. So my question is, why do we have to destroy our economy along with everybody getting sick, which is more or less inevitable. As Donkey rightly points out, poverty and diseases of despair that go along with it are serious threats to public health and welfare, too.

[Turdacious]

What troubles me extremely from the scientifical modelers is the complete lack of interest in the inevitable dire cost to society of ignoring lockdown related mental health, untreated diseases, and other deaths, along with the cost of generational poverty. It's derelict not to make this part of the national conversation.

I'm not certain there was a lack of interest, although they were certainly more interested in stopping the pandemic than anything else. There was awareness that the global PPE, ventilator, and ICU bed shortages were game stopping bottlenecks-- NYC seemed to be ground zero for that. Slowing the spread to a more manageable levels limited the risk of those problems overwhelming the health care system. Maybe I've missed it, but nobody seems to have done a serious model of what would have happened if we'd done nothing.

It didn't help that the modelers were dealing with a lot of unknowns (in large part because of China's lies).

[Fat Cat]

I can get an Ivy League Expert to testify to anything I want within 2 hours. All I have to do is pay his fees. Every god damned trial has experts on opposing sides of the issues. Every one. And they all have kick ass CVs. All of them.

Could you get this one? He's wrong too, but he uses nice charts and stuff.
KrugmanTweet.PNG

In point of fact, Oregon is hitting record highs: https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/07 ... cases.html

Krugman is wrong about EVERYTHING.

[Bennyonesix1]

I'm not generally a fatalist, but I have been about COVID-19. Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks and the shutdown, have not been demonstrated to have much effect on stopping the spread. We've had travel shut down since March and we had our highest single-day spread today, with 55 new cases. So my question is, why do we have to destroy our economy along with everybody getting sick, which is more or less inevitable. As Donkey rightly points out, poverty and diseases of despair that go along with it are serious threats to public health and welfare, too.

Bingo. It was going to do what it was going to do. Spend the money on therapeutics and sending the Nat Guard to quarantine and brutally enforce protective protocols in LTCs. Get as many kids and young people to get it as possible. Mandate minimum vitD levels if you want the populace to act affirmatively.

[Bennyonesix1]

What troubles me extremely from the scientifical modelers is the complete lack of interest in the inevitable dire cost to society of ignoring lockdown related mental health, untreated diseases, and other deaths, along with the cost of generational poverty. It's derelict not to make this part of the national conversation.

I'm not certain there was a lack of interest, although they were certainly more interested in stopping the pandemic than anything else. There was awareness that the global PPE, ventilator, and ICU bed shortages were game stopping bottlenecks-- NYC seemed to be ground zero for that. Slowing the spread to a more manageable levels limited the risk of those problems overwhelming the health care system. Maybe I've missed it, but nobody seems to have done a serious model of what would have happened if we'd done nothing.

It didn't help that the modelers were dealing with a lot of unknowns (in large part because of China's lies).

Did nothing? That's maximally tendentious. A statement made purely to cloud things and make a good faith interlocutor work to even start really talking. A tax for daring to not toe the line of your preferred policy preferences.

[Bennyonesix1]

I can get an Ivy League Expert to testify to anything I want within 2 hours. All I have to do is pay his fees. Every god damned trial has experts on opposing sides of the issues. Every one. And they all have kick ass CVs. All of them.

Could you get this one? He's wrong too, but he uses nice charts and stuff.
KrugmanTweet.PNG

In point of fact, Oregon is hitting record highs: https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/07 ... cases.html

Krugman is wrong about EVERYTHING.

"Cases" is not even a valid category at this point. No one knows what it means. But assuming it is a valid category rt.live shows OR decreasing recently and almost double the testing. They're not really increasing, just finding more of these strange things called "cases".

[Fat Cat]

Here's Japan's numbers with well-behaved mask wearing public.

[Bennyonesix1]

Here's Japan's numbers with well-behaved mask wearing public.

Love the Japs. But they get the flu just like everyone else despite the masks. They're testing a lot more now and finding more cases. Not a surprise. At there lows they were testing almost the least of any dev country (as they should have).

Everyone is going to 20% sero-prevalence eventually.

Unless the vaccine works like the polio one lmao.

[nafod]

Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks...

The science is pretty clear that masks work, actually. A short read.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2768532

This incident would be extraordinarily unlikely if masks didn’t work.

...from 2 symptomatically infected stylists at a hair salon in Springfield, Missouri. Before they were diagnosed as having COVID-19, the hair stylists had served 139 clients but had been required to wear masks at all times while working with them. After public health contact tracing with the hair salon clients and after 2 weeks of follow-up, no symptoms of COVID-19 were identified among the exposed clients or their secondary contacts. Among 104 interviewed clients, 102 (98%) reported wearing face coverings for their entire appointment.

[Bennyonesix1]

"Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
I believe the two statements below are equally valid:

- Letting #COVID19 infect the whole population is morally unacceptable
- The measures that would be required to suppress #COVID19 globally are morally unacceptable

As such, I'm afraid there is no solution, only tradeoffs.
11:04 AM · Jul 23, 2020·"

Fwiw this is my position.

[Fat Cat]

"Prof Francois Balloux
@BallouxFrancois
I believe the two statements below are equally valid:

- Letting #COVID19 infect the whole population is morally unacceptable
- The measures that would be required to suppress #COVID19 globally are morally unacceptable

As such, I'm afraid there is no solution, only tradeoffs.
11:04 AM · Jul 23, 2020·"

Fwiw this is my position.

Exactly.

[Fat Cat]

Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks...

The science is pretty clear that masks work, actually. A short read.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2768532

This incident would be extraordinarily unlikely if masks didn’t work.

...from 2 symptomatically infected stylists at a hair salon in Springfield, Missouri. Before they were diagnosed as having COVID-19, the hair stylists had served 139 clients but had been required to wear masks at all times while working with them. After public health contact tracing with the hair salon clients and after 2 weeks of follow-up, no symptoms of COVID-19 were identified among the exposed clients or their secondary contacts. Among 104 interviewed clients, 102 (98%) reported wearing face coverings for their entire appointment.

They extrapolate from a Wang's study which concludes that, "universal masking of health care workers and patients can help reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections." That's not the same thing.

FWIW, I wear a mask when I go out in public, largely to express consideration for the wishes of others. That said, unless your argument is that we are all going to wear masks for the rest our lives every time we are in public, you haven't though this through.

[Bennyonesix1]

Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks...

The science is pretty clear that masks work, actually. A short read.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2768532

This incident would be extraordinarily unlikely if masks didn’t work.

...from 2 symptomatically infected stylists at a hair salon in Springfield, Missouri. Before they were diagnosed as having COVID-19, the hair stylists had served 139 clients but had been required to wear masks at all times while working with them. After public health contact tracing with the hair salon clients and after 2 weeks of follow-up, no symptoms of COVID-19 were identified among the exposed clients or their secondary contacts. Among 104 interviewed clients, 102 (98%) reported wearing face coverings for their entire appointment.

They extrapolate from a Wang's study which concludes that, "universal masking of health care workers and patients can help reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections." That's not the same thing.

FWIW, I wear a mask when I go out in public, largely to express consideration for the wishes of others. That said, unless your argument is that we are all going to wear masks for the rest our lives every time we are in public, you haven't though this through.

You're kinda late to the "he's not good at thinking" party. But welcome!

[Bennyonesix1]

Most of the measures that have been implemented like masks...

The science is pretty clear that masks work, actually. A short read.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/f ... le/2768532

This incident would be extraordinarily unlikely if masks didn’t work.

...from 2 symptomatically infected stylists at a hair salon in Springfield, Missouri. Before they were diagnosed as having COVID-19, the hair stylists had served 139 clients but had been required to wear masks at all times while working with them. After public health contact tracing with the hair salon clients and after 2 weeks of follow-up, no symptoms of COVID-19 were identified among the exposed clients or their secondary contacts. Among 104 interviewed clients, 102 (98%) reported wearing face coverings for their entire appointment.

Hey man thanks for your simple minded likely story about masks. It was cool.

Why did the Swedish SCIENCE guy just say masks were lol but flex all you want with them dudes?