IrongarmX

Crypto isn’t useful yet outside of crime or speculation. It’s impossible to know if it’s under or overvalued. This makes it speculation by definition. It’s also manipulated by the major holders.

I know some guys who have gotten very, very comfortable (on paper, still holding) betting early on BTC and they think they’re geniuses. I’m happy for them, but they aren’t.

I don’t think there’s anything wrong investing 5-10% of an investment portfolio in speculative stuff like crypto, TSLA, etc. But huge proportionate bets will eventually burn the bettor. The smartest investors in the world are, by and large, not investing. When something like BTC, Theranos, Magic Leap get huge techbro buy-in and the sharp money stays away, this is usually a clue.

During the pandemic, I’ve gone from skeptic to believer it will remain, regardless of what governments do. When you consider the possibly impending metaverse, crypto will underpin whatever goes on there.

How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market

One of the best books on investing/trading (for me).

Fundamental analysis is a doubtful activity for many reasons. Corporate accountants will have no trouble massaging numbers and showing a great profit instead of a loss. Published financial data is always outdated, and by the time we get it those whose decisions matter – banks, fund managers – already acted on it.

What I am getting at is that valuing Bitcoin is as moot as trying to value any instrument, and the best way to make decisions about investing in it should be made on price. If it goes up it makes sense to take a long position, put some sort of a stop loss and have an exit strategy.

I know one person that has done extremely well in crypto (multi-millions) and many people who have lost the majority of their investment.  The advice from the one person who has done well is that you can not be a passive investor.  The market on crypto is not regulated and it runs 24/7.  You need to spend several hours per day including weekends staying on top of what is going on.  You also need to develop a strong network of like-minded investors to help keep you aligned.  Without the effort and network you are destined to be caught up in one of the big swings and likely to loose much of your investment.

If I were a younger man I could see myself jumping in with both feet.  Right now I am on a predictable path financially and afraid of making the leap.  I am the type of guy who goes to the casino with $20 and is happy to leave when it is gone, so crypto is not for me … at least not yet.