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Forums › Free Speech › Afghanistan collapse
I know we have folks who worked there, to what extent is the rapid collapse of the government a surprise?
You have to be a special kind of stupid to pretend this wasn’t utterly predictable. Biden is *definitely* a special kind of stupid, but those of us that have been paying attention have known that for years.
This is an epic, utterly epic (presumably the idiot-in-chief has advisors…) failure. Period.
-Stick
If the report I saw is true, giving the Taliban a list of the names of all the Afghans who helped us will very likely turn out to have been a massive completely foreseeable mistake. I hope it’s not true, but our ruling elites appear to be be short-sighted morons, so I wouldn’t put it past them.
Probably a mistake.
But –
Twenty fucking years. We have been there twenty fucking years and the Taliban are able to walk in and take over in three days? Not a shot fired? Not one day spent defending Kabul by whatever the “army” was called?
I absolutely can believe no reasonable person saw this coming because it’s fucking insane.
I don’t want to be an asshole, but given how things turned out there really is nothing to say or do. Get as many people as possible out and GET out. Never go back. Every so often when things get wonky bomb the shit out of the Taliban or ISIS or whoever is causing trouble there.
But any western country that ever goes back in there needs to go in deciding they are going to colonize it and turn into a province or state or whatever and plan on being there forever.
upid to pretend this wasn’t utterly predictable. Biden is *definitely* a special kind of stupid, but those of us that have been paying attention have known that for years. This is an epic, utterly epic (presumably the idiot-in-chief has advisors…) failure. Period. -Stick
What course of action would you have recommended?
You have to be a special kind of stupid to pretend this wasn’t utterly predictable.
You have to be a special kind of …something…to think that it was so obvious yet all of the entire government didn’t see it coming. Including the Taliban, who were surprised at how easy it was to roll up the AFG.
If the Taliban themselves knew it was going to go down like this, they’d have done a bunch of different stuff too. Measured the palace for new draperies, etc.
The die was cast when we negotiated our surrender 18 months out, without even including the AFG in our negotiations with the Taliban. At that point, we could trust the Taliban more than the AFG. We at least knew where they stood and what they wanted.
Barring contractors from coming into country to maintain aircraft, cutting off air support, and leaving Bagram in the middle of the night without notifying the Afghan commander certainly didn’t help the situation.
The Afghan military wasn’t ever going to compete against the Taliban on the ground, but air superiority may have held them off. Or Kabul would have been rocked by repeated suicide bombings and other IED attacks that aircraft aren’t much good for.
There is a sizable resistance in Panjshir that is putting up a good fight. Former Afghan military, and others who just don’t like Pashtuns I guess.
Steven Pressfield had a video, I think titled “It’s the tribes, stupid” or something like that. It’s close to 15 years old if it’s even still out there, and it’s worth a watch.
Barring contractors from coming into country to maintain aircraft, cutting off air support, and leaving Bagram in the middle of the night without notifying the Afghan commander certainly didn’t help the situation. The Afghan military wasn’t ever going to compete against the Taliban on the ground, but air superiority may have held them off. Or Kabul would have been rocked by repeated suicide bombings and other IED attacks that aircraft aren’t much good for. There is a sizable resistance in Panjshir that is putting up a good fight. Former Afghan military, and others who just don’t like Pashtuns I guess. Steven Pressfield had a video, I think titled “It’s the tribes, stupid” or something like that. It’s close to 15 years old if it’s even still out there, and it’s worth a watch.
20 fucking years and the afghan military cannot compete on the ground? And whose air superiority? US? How fucking long are we supposed to prop up a government that has zero interest in running the country? A military that has zero interest in fighting? What’s the point?
I’ve been reading more and more about this. We are not the first country to step out in this round. We are the last. There were two choices. Stay in Afghanistan forever. Or get out and shit was going to fall apart at some point.
It doesn’t matter if it is this month or Aug 2022…or 25. The second the Taliban took over, this was what was going to happen. A mad rush to get people out.
There was no third option, get out and things end nicely for everyone.
Barring contractors from coming into country to maintain aircraft, cutting off air support, and leaving Bagram in the middle of the night without notifying the Afghan commander certainly didn’t help the situation. The Afghan military wasn’t ever going to compete against the Taliban on the ground, but air superiority may have held them off. Or Kabul would have been rocked by repeated suicide bombings and other IED attacks that aircraft aren’t much good for. There is a sizable resistance in Panjshir that is putting up a good fight. Former Afghan military, and others who just don’t like Pashtuns I guess. Steven Pressfield had a video, I think titled “It’s the tribes, stupid” or something like that. It’s close to 15 years old if it’s even still out there, and it’s worth a watch.
20 fucking years and the afghan military cannot compete on the ground? And whose air superiority? US? How fucking long are we supposed to prop up a government that has zero interest in running the country? A military that has zero interest in fighting? What’s the point?
I’ve been reading more and more about this. We are not the first country to step out in this round. We are the last. There were two choices. Stay in Afghanistan forever. Or get out and shit was going to fall apart at some point.
It doesn’t matter if it is this month or Aug 2022…or 25. The second the Taliban took over, this was what was going to happen. A mad rush to get people out.
There was no third option, get out and things end nicely for everyone.
It’s not going to end nicely for everyone. Never was, but it didn’t have to be as awful as it will be for many who were told we would help them.
Also, do you think I was arguing for staying? IF, big if, we were going to stay, it should have been into the winter when the fighting season dies down, but I’ve been on record here and elsewhere going back to Libya as being an anti-intervention/anti-war person.
I’m critical of the operation to withdraw, how many people with SIVs are stuck, that we apparently gave a list of everyone who helped us to the Taliban, and that we’re likely not going to get every American out by Tuesday. This whole thing has been a clown show.
I’m critical of other stuff, too, but what I’m most critical of is that we wasted thousands of lives and trillions of dollars and then turned tail and abandoned people who had come to count on us.
We’ve been in Germany and Japan since, what, 1945? That occupation has helped diversify US Troops as well as preserved peace where we believed peace could never be achieved. Afghanistan was likely to be the same. The failed Soviet occupation should have told us everything we needed to know – it’s not a ‘one and done’ deal. All that said, the manner of this pullout was completely political, gave short shrift to the documented (and, in hindsight, correct) expectations of those on the ground, and precipitated a humanitarian crisis that would not otherwise have been. Forget about the 13 dead Americans (you can, I won’t), but I find it very irritating that the US press ignores the blood of the 100+ others whose blood is on Biden’s hands. “Oooh, quick, a couple random drone strikes, so I can pretend I’m doing something…” – that will never bring back those dead. Those unnecessary dead. Those whose deaths were completely avoidable, and I can’t help but think would have been completely avoided if the US had a president with a spine. We are weak, and our president is a reflection of that…
Stick
Edit: typo
and precipitated a humanitarian crisis that would not otherwise have been.
Did what was the end game you envisioned?
Here’s why we were doomed. The AFG was monumentally corrupt. So corrupt that the money we provided to pay their military was siphoned of why their military fought without getting paid. Of course the AFG was not even included in the February 2020 negotiations we held with the Taliban to determine the future of Afghanistan. To repeat, we didn’t even invite the AFG to join in the negotiations to figure out what was going to happen to their country. That’s a pretty big wtf moment.
So when it is time for us to leave, and we are depending on the corrupt AFG to hold things together until we’ve crossed the horizon, guess what’s they did? They shanked us like we did them in Doha. Meanwhile the actual Afghans are screwed.
I hope we hung down Ghani and kill him. Or the Taliban. He deserves to die.
The “collapse”. The Pashtun dominate Afghanistan. They are tribal. People work with their tribal elders. The Americans will go home, like the Soviets, British, Moguls and Greeks went home. Back to tribalism. Take off your government uniform, put on a turban.
Most Pashtun live in Pakistan. The Pakistani ISI supports the Taliban. Pakistan needs a friendly nation at their back while they confront India. Make friends with the dominant group, make sure that they’re Muslim. Now they can focus on those idol worshipers in New Delhi.
How come nobody is giving George W Bush credit? He is the one who tried to nation build in Afghanistan. Biden got handed a mess.
Why hasn’t Biden asked the Republicans if they read history books? Nobody has conquered Afghanistan. Every bit of the mess in 2021 goes back to 2001. We tried to do the impossible. Nation build in Afghanistan. We failed.
The “collapse”. The Pashtun dominate Afghanistan. They are tribal. People work with their tribal elders. The Americans will go home, like the Soviets, British, Moguls and Greeks went home. Back to tribalism. Take off your government uniform, put on a turban. Most Pashtun live in Pakistan. The Pakistani ISI supports the Taliban. Pakistan needs a friendly nation at their back while they confront India. Make friends with the dominant group, make sure that they’re Muslim. Now they can focus on those idol worshipers in New Delhi. How come nobody is giving George W Bush credit? He is the one who tried to nation build in Afghanistan. Biden got handed a mess. Why hasn’t Biden asked the Republicans if they read history books? Nobody has conquered Afghanistan. Every bit of the mess in 2021 goes back to 2001. We tried to do the impossible. Nation build in Afghanistan. We failed.
On point, Gene
By the way, is the fall of Afghanistan Trump’s fall?
I don’t know that fault is the right word, but he set in motion the outcome. It followed the plan he negotiated with the Taliban.
Biden could have changed the plan. Hopefully the Pentagon was reviewing such a plan, preparing contingencies, making suggestions no matter who got inaugurated. If not then Biden needs to fix that problem too.
The Taliban is making nice with the same people who are abusing Turkmen in Xinjian? That’s their deal. Ain’t my concern.
Time for a multipolar world. That’s reality. Let’s knock off this Pax Americana bullshit. We are not an imperial people. We are too poor to indulge illusions.
We should be working on a new Federalism in the US. Lot easier than secession.
How come nobody is giving George W Bush credit? He is the one who tried to nation build in Afghanistan. Biden got handed a mess. Why hasn’t Biden asked the Republicans if they read history books? Nobody has conquered Afghanistan. Every bit of the mess in 2021 goes back to 2001. We tried to do the impossible. Nation build in Afghanistan. We failed.
Now, imagine George W Bush coming to your house with the intention to fix the issues in your family. He is going to sort out how you talk to your wife, who is looking after the kids, how she is looking after the house and so on. Sounds constructive? It’s as retarded when someone goes to another country with the purpose to “build a nation”. Afghanistan has the nation that has been formed over the centuries, naturally, and the fact that no intruder has been able to stay there for any meaningful period of time is the testimony to my statement.
Building the nation wasn’t the idea behind the invasion. Just like the invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with the weapons of mass destruction or international terrorism.
Building the nation wasn’t the idea behind the invasion.
Khamid Karzai was sworn in in December of 2001 as President of Afghanistan. Wasn’t an election.
enDOTwikipediaDOTorg/wiki/Bonn_Agreement_(Afghanistan)
We were nation building, Doc.
By the way, is the fall of Afghanistan Trump’s fall?
I don’t know that fault is the right word, but he set in motion the outcome. It followed the plan he negotiated with the Taliban.
From what I could tell, it seemed like the plan Trump put together was shit, and a lot of people stated it was shit with the exception of diehard MAGA who loved everything he did no matter what.
What I can’t understand, is if everyone was so critical of the agreement, and we knew the Taliban were already violating the agreement, why Biden didn’t reverse, back out, or renegotiate like he’s done or tried to do with everything else Trump did in his 4 years?
The “collapse”. The Pashtun dominate Afghanistan. They are tribal. People work with their tribal elders. The Americans will go home, like the Soviets, British, Moguls and Greeks went home. Back to tribalism. Take off your government uniform, put on a turban. Most Pashtun live in Pakistan. The Pakistani ISI supports the Taliban. Pakistan needs a friendly nation at their back while they confront India. Make friends with the dominant group, make sure that they’re Muslim. Now they can focus on those idol worshipers in New Delhi. How come nobody is giving George W Bush credit? He is the one who tried to nation build in Afghanistan. Biden got handed a mess. Why hasn’t Biden asked the Republicans if they read history books? Nobody has conquered Afghanistan. Every bit of the mess in 2021 goes back to 2001. We tried to do the impossible. Nation build in Afghanistan. We failed.
Nation building in another country is similar to building a relationship in another family. Just move in and sort their problems out.
I have family in the military. Back in March I was asking what the biggest concern was at the time. I was told that it was the situation in Afghanistan. What I was told then was that as US troops handed over control and exited an area, the Taliban would show up the next day. They would tell the Afghan army to lay down their weapons and walk away or they would kill them and their family. The Afghan army did not resist and just walked away. This was not an isolated incident. It happened in every case without exception.
If a low level military person knew this in March, the president had to know as well. I am not a fan of Trump, but saying it was his plan and his fault is a bullshit excuse of the highest magnitude. Biden is the president of the fucking United States of America. If he didn’t like the plan he could change it. If he couldn’t see what low level enlisted men could see was coming then he is as inept as advertised. What is tragic is that US soldiers and US citizens lost their lives due to this idiot. Their blood is on his hands and I can’t see any other way around it.
I have family in the military. Back in March I was asking what the biggest concern was at the time. I was told that it was the situation in Afghanistan. What I was told then was that as US troops handed over control and exited an area, the Taliban would show up the next day. They would tell the Afghan army to lay down their weapons and walk away or they would kill them and their family. The Afghan army did not resist and just walked away. This was not an isolated incident. It happened in every case without exception.
If true, it’s even more of a correct decision to leave.
I find it unlikely, but if we knew the Afghanistan military would immediately collapse without constant US support, enduring years of additional “green” on blue attacks is nuts.
Nation building in another country is similar to building a relationship in another family. Just move in and sort their problems out.
That’s one interpretation. “Nation Building” is also a polite term for Imperialism or Colonialism.
From 1899, Rudyard Kipling, “The White Man’s Burden: The United States and the Philippine Islands”
“Take up the White Man’s burden—
Send forth the best ye breed—
Go bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives’ need;
To wait in heavy harness
On fluttered folk and wild—
Your new-caught, sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.
Take up the White Man’s burden—
In patience to abide,
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain.
To seek another’s profit,
And work another’s gain.
Take up the White Man’s burden—
The savage wars of peace—
Fill full the mouth of Famine
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
The end for others sought,
Watch Sloth and heathen Folly
Bring all your hopes to nought….”
Several more stanzas if you want to read this crap
American soldiers practicing the “Water Torture”. They filled the stomachs of Filipino Guerillas with water, then pressed their abdomens to make them puke it back up. Over and over. Disgusted the Spanish.
I don’t give a fuck about Afghans, but I do give a fuck about US soldiers because my son is one of them. My beef in this is that the exit plan was shit and that was obvious from the start. Our president fucked that up and people died because of that. Instead of taking ownership for his mistakes he blamed Trump. That is fucked up.
I agree that the US should have exited Afghanistan long ago – just don’t get people killed in the process.
Gene, I missed one of your previous posts. You are right, “nation building” sounds very progressive and liberal, but it’s the same arrogant way to look down at another nation.
In more general terms, every nation has its own way. If Afghanistan has to go through the medieval age that Europe went through a few centuries ago – so be it. Interfering in the natural course of events is useless. From this point of view Afghanistan resembles Vietnam. Communist Party in Vietnam became very popular in 1953 and would undoubtedly win the election should such occur. Foreign powers kept the lid closed for another 20 years, and when it the pressure eventually burst it open it had lots of consequences. North Vietnamese army collapsed as fast as Afghani army now. I wouldn’t like to be in Afghanistan for the next decade.
Gene, I missed one of your previous posts. You are right, “nation building” sounds very progressive and liberal, but it’s the same arrogant way to look down at another nation. In more general terms, every nation has its own way.
I wish more of us in the US understood this. We did not begin as an imperialist nation. President Washington’s farewell speech counseled us to “avoid suffering or offering injury”. Sure we had slavery and were rotten to our aborigines. Other countries were as rotten, some were worse.
Most of the bad behavior in the 1800s were “filibusters” and “freebooters” who went south. Sometimes they they didn’t come back. Was a pointless war with Mexico.
After the Progressives took over? Empire. Damn Roosevelts fucked up everything they touched.
Communist Party in Vietnam became very popular in 1953 and would undoubtedly win the election should such occur. Foreign powers kept the lid closed for another 20 years, and when it the pressure eventually burst it open it had lots of consequences. North Vietnamese army collapsed as fast as Afghani army now. I wouldn’t like to be in Afghanistan for the next decade.
I’m not sure if it was the communism or patriotism. If you get the chance, former Viet Cong member Tang Truong Nhu wrote a book called “A Vietcong Memoir”. He was mildly socialist. Really cool book about his experiences working against the US. Tang complained after the fall of Saigon that the North sent their cadres south to run everything. He and his southern colleagues got pushed aside. He fled Vietnam.
Vietnamese despise being occupied. The Chinese held part of the nation for 1,000 years. It’s like a cultural ideal to die freeing the nation of occupiers.
Some in the north had tattoos that said, ‘Born in the north to die in the South’. One in four died on the trip south. Tropical diseases and US air strikes.
I lost relatives in that war. Good people. They died for their people, their colleagues, nothing else.
I think there were many misconceptions about Vietnam. Their liberation movement was definitely driven by patriotism, but it was the Communist Party that, thanks to the massive backing from China at the time, that was the major force.
Sorry to hear about your lost relatives. This is the tragedy of the wars: a bunch of guys in governments decide to have a go, and millions of lives are affected. Time and time again people get sold on the idea of a war as the means to maintain peace, similar to fucking as the means to maintain virginity. Go figure.
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