Anybody buy Facebook shares?

[Andy83]

Will the shares recover? I didn't buy any but I think they'll recover. Just hold on if you bought at 38.

[Fat Cat]

Was a retarded price, priced for retards.

[WildGorillaMan]

Was a retarded price, priced for retards.

[baffled]

There's so much goofy shit that went on with the IPO. A lot of questions around the company as well when it comes to turning a profit.

Since I have to keep up with this sort of thing (not necessarily stocks, but the goings on of social media, search etc) for the work I do, I think there's enough positive stuff going on that the stock won't stay low for long.

[lasalle]

Even in the low $30's, it has a price to earnings multiple of 78. This is retarded and unsustainable. Chevron, by comparison (you know, a company that sells stuff) has a P/E ratio of 7. Apple has a P/E of just over 13.

What this means is that unless their revenue goes through the roof, their stock price will drift down to be more in line with their revenue. And how do they get revenue up? Plaster more ads all over the place, start selling shit and/or doing a bunch of other things that will annoy their base.

It's not yet possible to short this, but when the time comes that's my plan.

[Andy83]

Was a retarded price, priced for retards.

That Zuckerburger kid is a real retard. He should spread the rest of his billions around and give everybody a "fair shot". I could use a measely million or so of it to straighten up.

[Turdacious]

There's so much goofy shit that went on with the IPO. A lot of questions around the company as well when it comes to turning a profit.

Since I have to keep up with this sort of thing (not necessarily stocks, but the goings on of social media, search etc) for the work I do, I think there's enough positive stuff going on that the stock won't stay low for long.

One million hipsters bought one share each (APPL's too expensive)-- shot the price up.

[bigpeach]

Oooooh look at all the CNBC viewers up in here.

[baffled]

There's so much goofy shit that went on with the IPO. A lot of questions around the company as well when it comes to turning a profit.

Since I have to keep up with this sort of thing (not necessarily stocks, but the goings on of social media, search etc) for the work I do, I think there's enough positive stuff going on that the stock won't stay low for long.

One million hipsters bought one share each (APPL's too expensive)-- shot the price up.

The hipsters were too busy complaining about Facebook's changing policies and problems with advertising.... on their Facebook pages. By way of their Macbook Pros.

There is a lot of cool stuff that Facebook is doing that hopefully will result in a hefty revenue boost, even with questions about their ability to earn in an increasingly mobile world.

Even with this IPO being a bit underwhelming, Google doesn't get antsy about much. A big reason that Google launched that piece of shit Google+ "social network" was because of Facebook. Google+ fucking sucks and the numbers around it are fishy, IMO.

I've got no super duper Bloomberg TV or CNBC analysis, I just know how these companies impact what I do, and I would think that a big deal will be a change in their advertising being available on 3rd party sites, like Google Adwords (or Adsense for publishers).

We'll see though because Lasalle makes some important points too. Whoever advised them through this IPO seriously fucked up though.

[Fat Cat]

Was a retarded price, priced for retards.

That Zuckerburger kid is a real retard. He should spread the rest of his billions around and give everybody a "fair shot". I could use a measely million or so of it to straighten up.

Totally. For a cool million I will stop beating retarded children.

[Protobuilder]

I dislike FB though they have enough of the big boys backpedaling that it makes me think they are going to stick around.

Whoever advised them through this IPO seriously fucked up though.

Indeed.

[The Crawdaddy]

Even in the low $30's, it has a price to earnings multiple of 78. This is retarded and unsustainable. Chevron, by comparison (you know, a company that sells stuff) has a P/E ratio of 7. Apple has a P/E of just over 13.

What this means is that unless their revenue goes through the roof, their stock price will drift down to be more in line with their revenue. And how do they get revenue up? Plaster more ads all over the place, start selling shit and/or doing a bunch of other things that will annoy their base.

It's not yet possible to short this, but when the time comes that's my plan.

Yup. Whole bunch of good valuation commentary here.

Whoever advised them through this IPO seriously fucked up though.

Why do you think? A whole buncha dummies just gave him their money for $38/share. Why should he care too much if he still controls ~58% of the company. Buncha suckas!

[baffled]

Whoever advised them through this IPO seriously fucked up though.

Why do you think? A whole buncha dummies just gave him their money for $38/share. Why should he care too much if he still controls ~58% of the company. Buncha suckas!

I'm not talking about Zuckerberg, even though he probably lost a chunk yesterday.

Facebook would much prefer to have run their IPO and had that 10% gain than to look back and say "fuck it, lots of people bought at $38 and up. Zuck still owns 40 something percent, controls almost 60% of the votes and is a motherfucking billionaire, even though the stock actually lost ~10% in a day."

Google has been firing shots across the bow at Facebook for a while, and Facebook hasn't really seemed all that interested in battling back.

A strong IPO would have rattled a few cages and been a big ego boost in an industry that seems to be more interested in dick measuring contests than anything at the moment.

[The Crawdaddy]

Sure. The psychological impact of a 10+% drop on day one isn't to be discounted, since most "investors" don't perform adequate due diligence, let alone a real valuation.

I can see the potential for long-term growth in the customer base for FB, which has the potential to increase earnings, but with a P/E like lasalle said, the company is a stretch, at the very best, for anything over about $10/share at their current revenue levels (imo).

[WildGorillaMan]

After what, six years of hype about FB going public it's only fitting that the whole thing be a giant schmozzle, top to bottom.

[The Crawdaddy]

...a giant schmozzle...

<snort>

[Drew0786]

Isn't Facebook just for snooping at old high school classmates and for making easier for married folk to have affairs.

[j-cubed]

Money will pour in from insecure "Look at me types" once they start charging users to make their posts look important.

Facebook charges users for prominent posts
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/f ... posts.html

The ‘pay to promote’ system is being trialled in New Zealand, and allows users to make the posts they make on the social network more conspicuous to their friends on the site.

Facebook said it was using a series of different prices in the trial, and is also offering a free option. A user in Whangerei, New Zealand, said he was offered a $2(US; £1.25) price, and that the post would have been displayed on a yellow background.

Facebook spokeswoman Mia Garlick confirmed to Stuff NZ that the idea was a new "feature" it was testing.

"We're constantly testing new features across the site. This particular test is simply to gauge people's interest in this method of sharing with their friends," she said.

Just think of how much money they could make off of Crossfit people who want their own elite puking pictures to be prioritized.

[baffled]

Pay to promote, I think, will turn out to piss a ton of people off, until all the narcissists who post 30 times per day decided to use it, then it'll be huge. And still piss a lot of people off.

[TerryB]

I wish IGx had a 'pay to promote' feature so I could take my trolling to epic heights.

[buckethead]

... an industry that seems to be more interested in dick measuring contests than anything at the moment.

How did you get access to my Facebook page?

[The Crawdaddy]

Trouble brewing...

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti ... 48905.html

And now comes some news about the Facebook (FB) IPO that buyers deserve to be outraged about.
Reuters' Alistair Barr is reporting that Facebook's lead underwriters, Morgan Stanley (MS), JP Morgan (JPM), and Goldman Sachs (GS) all cut their earnings forecasts for the company in the middle of the IPO roadshow.
This by itself is highly unusual (I've never seen it during 20 years in and around the tech IPO business).
But, just as important, news of the estimate cut was passed on only to a handful of big investor clients, not everyone else who was considering an investment in Facebook.
This is a huge problem, for one big reason:
Selective dissemination. Earnings forecasts are material information, especially when they are prepared by analysts who have had privileged access to company management. As lead underwriters on the IPO, these analysts would have had much better information about the company than anyone else. So the fact that these analysts suddenly all cut their earnings forecasts at the same time, during the roadshow, and then this information was not passed on to the broader public, is a huge problem.

More at the link above.

[Yes, I'm drunk]

So, prediction time. Should I buy now if I'm looking to sell in ~1 year's time, or wait for the price to drop even further?

[seeahill]

Put in a limit order for $16. If you get it, you get it an OK price. If you don't get it, you lose nothing.

[Fat Cat]

Facebook will tank. Here's why. As a publicly traded company, the idiots who have purchased stock will demand short-term returns. To meet this demand, Facebook will start to squeeze the consumer. As they do, they will lose their market, who only began using their product because it was: (i) free, and (ii) convenient.

My family is scattered across the Pacific, US, Canada, and Eastern Europe so social media is nice because I can communicate and share photographs with people I care about, but there will always be someone else willing to provide what Facebook does if they go off the reservation.