Odds that President Trump will not finish his term

[DikTracy6000]

DOW > 20,000

So much for the Wise Market deserting Trump. My schadenfreude can only get so hard.

It's no secret that I'm not the President's biggest fan. But when Trump won, I felt he would take pro-business decisions. I put more cash in stocks I expected to go up under Trump. So far, it's been a winning investment.

Yeah, I have no shame.

So when you were totally convinced Hillary would win, your investments were mostly in cash? Interesting. Sounds like a lack of faith in her ability to turn the economy around. Don't get me wrong, it could turn on a dime just as quickly for President Trump.

Not really. I shifted out of some investments during the campaign because I felt things were too crazy. When Trump was elected, I bought ETFs representing sectors that looked to benefit: banking, energy and small caps.

Have done the same in the energy sector, and defense for me as well. Was already in small caps. Banking has never worked out well for me. I think their shenanigans with tarp money and then paying out big bonuses has soured my opinion of them.

[seeahill]

Johno,
PL54 says those guys are weak minded liberals.

I want 10 to 1. You can lower your bet to $10 if you don't want to lose that much money.

[dead man walking]

It is interesting that you highlight the Dow, though. What was the Dow's performance under Obama, out of curiosity?

+148% during obama
- 22% during dubya
+226% during slick willy
+ 45% during dadddy bush (4 yrs)
+ 135% during reagan

recently markets seem to like democrats. serendipity?

[Sangoma]

I wouldn't be surprised if in a year Trump's popularity shoots through the roof.

[johno]

I want 10 to 1. You can lower your bet to $10 if you don't want to lose that much money.

You bait with a 1:1 offer, then switch to 10:1?

Last time I made a political bet with a lib, she welshed. You probably would too. Which baffles me, you being a wealthy author with eight more lives to go.

[seeahill]

Well, I did ask what everyone thought the odds were. That's what I think they are.

[milosz]

Republicans will never impeach him, it would doom them for a full cycle. If he's removed from office it will be horizontally. Which isn't unlikely, given age, weight, stress level and penchant for uppers.

He's starting out historically unpopular - barring a terrorist attack or war, massive popularity is as unlikely as removal.

[powerlifter54]

These same wankers had Hilliary winning in a landslide. It is one thing to be a leftist , it is an other thing to let it cloud your math.

I don't think you understand how a betting exchange works.

I don't think you understand they had her at 2/11, over an 80% chance to win, even at the very end. Even a little bit of basic statistics understanding and a cursory review of the LA Times polling data showed it was a very close race. They let their politics get in the way of the math, and it cost them.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... ng-us-ele/

[Shafpocalypse Now]

The executive orders are getting wearing. He's not a king

[milosz]

So Trump is still using an unsecured Android and the senior staff have e-mails on a private RNC server - how long until China hacks one or both? Their cyberwar abilities make Russia look like a seventh grade programming class.

[Turdacious]

It is interesting that you highlight the Dow, though. What was the Dow's performance under Obama, out of curiosity?

+148% during obama
- 22% during dubya
+226% during slick willy
+ 45% during dadddy bush (4 yrs)
+ 135% during reagan

recently markets seem to like democrats. serendipity?

Now compare Dow results with a Dem POTUS/Dem Congress vs. Dem POTUS/GOP controlling at least one legislative branch.

[Grandpa's Spells]

[youtube]http://youtube.com/watch?v=JUDSeb2zHQ0[/youtube]

[Herv100]

LOL

[Andy83]

poor Tim. He and his crybaby cronies want so much for Trump to fail!

[seeahill]

These same wankers had Hilliary winning in a landslide. It is one thing to be a leftist , it is an other thing to let it cloud your math.

I don't think you understand how a betting exchange works.

I don't think you understand they had her at 2/11, over an 80% chance to win, even at the very end. Even a little bit of basic statistics understanding and a cursory review of the LA Times polling data showed it was a very close race. They let their politics get in the way of the math, and it cost them.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10 ... ng-us-ele/

I was talking about an online betting exchange in the UK. People bet against one another ---- not bookies. The site tabulates the bets and the odds change with each bet as they do at the horse track. The exchange doesn't care who wins or loses. They get their share from the winnings on each bet.

[seeahill]

poor Tim. He and his crybaby cronies want so much for Trump to fail!

What do you think the odds are that he'll complete his term?

[The Ginger Beard Man]

Partisans of both parties need to stop talking about impeachment and start winning elections.
That is all.

[Grandpa's Spells]

These same wankers had Hilliary winning in a landslide. It is one thing to be a leftist , it is an other thing to let it cloud your math.

I don't think you understand how a betting exchange works.

I don't think you understand they had her at 2/11, over an 80% chance to win, even at the very end.

Somebody with a poker pair has a 20% chance of hitting 3 of a kind by the end of a hand. That happens all the time. If the 80% event was supposed to happen every time, it wouldn't be 80%.

Betting markets don't have somebody winning in a landslide. They assign probabilities to different outcomes.

[Turdacious]

The executive orders are getting wearing. He's not a king

Interesting writeup in the NYT re executive orders. They suggest Trump's hand will be getting slapped by the courts-- a lot.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/23/us/p ... .html?_r=0

[dead man walking]

"order" may be an inflated term

Trump's "orders are essential memos to his advisers

These are props for glorified press events to take the place of real action. For the vast majority of his intended actions, the only immediate action is planning, meeting, etc.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ri ... a85ca953d2

the writer is a "conservative"

[johno]

The executive orders are getting wearing. He's not a king

That's what I was saying 6 months ago.

[johno]

I'll go 10:1 that Trump won't be impeached, up to $100.

As for his lifespan, I won't bet on that. For all I know, he could go rafting and drown. Or go camping with Shape and have a bad reaction to the ether.

[dead man walking]

Or go camping with Shape and have a bad reaction to the ether.

i just had a flash of ned beatty in deliverance.

after the trauma of that vision, i am repairing to a safe space.

[seeahill]

I'll go 10:1 that Trump won't be impeached, up to $100.

As for his lifespan, I won't bet on that. For all I know, he could go rafting and drown. Or go camping with Shape and have a bad reaction to the ether.

The bet was "not finish his term." That would include health reasons and resignation. If you're up for that, I'm in.

[Andy83]

poor Tim. He and his crybaby cronies want so much for Trump to fail!

What do you think the odds are that he'll complete his term?

Whatever Donald wants he gets. What do you think the odds are?