Wu Flu

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motherjuggs&speed
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by motherjuggs&speed »

I figured you probably meant that but I couldn't resist the urge to be a cunt.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

Don't ever resist the urge to be a cunt.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 10, 2020 1:44 am According to his own numbers, Taiwan needs a few million more to equal the population of Los Angeles. The comparison is dumb.
Direct comparison of any health numbers is dumb, and it is very easy to select a country that did or didn't do whatever you need to support an argument.

Belgium has the highest covid mortality in the world. Is that because they don't wear masks? The variation in cases and deaths between countries is hard to explain (unless you want to explain away). Many factors are involved, lots of them unknown.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Sangoma wrote: Tue Dec 15, 2020 6:44 am The variation in cases and deaths between countries is hard to explain (unless you want to explain away). Many factors are involved, lots of them unknown.
Actually its not.

Sweden has done the experiment for us.
.
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https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus- ... erSort=asc
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Sangoma
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Click the link, and you can make your own plots (provided it for that reason). Try USA and Japan.

I think pretty much any country from that part of the world, since they already were wary of viruses.

You are right, though. Cold, hard data impresses me.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
Yet right down the road you have Belgium, complete with masks, lockdowns, and all other forms of cuckoldry you advocate doing far, far worse than Sweden. Also, you are making the "if it saves on life" bullshit dramatic gesture. Compare the economic effects and tell me that has no bearing on mortality, please.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
Works every time.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
How do you know it's not the meatballs?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:40 pm
nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
Yet right down the road you have Belgium...Compare the economic effects and tell me that has no bearing on mortality, please.
Belgium isn’t Scandinavia.

Feel free to show the data on economic impact on the Scandinavian countries, and how much better off Sweden is over its neighbors. You’ll find out it isn’t.
Don’t believe everything you think.

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nafod
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Sangoma wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 3:38 am
nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
How do you know it's not the meatballs?
SCIENCE
Don’t believe everything you think.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

nafod wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:13 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 11:40 pm
nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
Yet right down the road you have Belgium...Compare the economic effects and tell me that has no bearing on mortality, please.
Belgium isn’t Scandinavia.

Feel free to show the data on economic impact on the Scandinavian countries, and how much better off Sweden is over its neighbors. You’ll find out it isn’t.
Are you stupid or something? Where did I say that Belgium was Scandinavian? I even said, "right down the road."

And yes, they are doing better. Hey look:


Image


Coronavirus: Sweden's economy hit less hard by pandemic

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53664354

But, by all means, please stay isolated at home for the rest of your life.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Uhh, I missed the other Scandinavian countries on that chart you used in your attempt to compare Sweden's economy to the other Scandinavian countries.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

They are part of the EU, which you would know if you had an opinion worth hearing.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Fat Cat wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 5:55 pm They are part of the EU, which you would know if you had an opinion worth hearing.
Next you'll (try to) explain how the entire EU is populated with hot blondes in mink bikinis.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Fat Cat »

I'm waiting for the part where you acknowledge just how uninformed you are.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Fat Cat wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 6:23 pm I'm waiting for the part where you acknowledge just how uninformed you are.

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I'm busy with my new Swedish friends.

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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

nafod wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 1:14 pm
Sangoma wrote: Fri Dec 18, 2020 3:38 am
nafod wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 10:57 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Thu Dec 17, 2020 9:10 pm
Sangoma wrote: Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:01 pm Ah, colored pictures and impressionable people.

In terms of deaths per 1 million Sweden is on the 24th place in the world. After Belgium, UK, USA, France, Spain, Italy and Brazil. Without drastic lockdowns. How come the graph doesn't include those countries?
Because it wouldn't tell the right story. Lying with statistics is elementary.
The only difference between Sweden and its Scandinavian neighbors are meatballs and Covid policy. Yet Sweden has orders of magnitude higher cumulative death count. It’s not the meatballs.
How do you know it's not the meatballs?
SCIENCE
I suppose you have the reference?
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nafod
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Yay there's a more contagious version of the virus in great Britain now. I'm glad we kept it spreading in the population until it was able to mutate.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19818-2
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Article
Open Access
Published: 25 November 2020
No evidence for increased transmissibility from recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2
Lucy van Dorp, Damien Richard, François Balloux
Nature Communications volume 11, Article number: 5986 (2020) Cite this article

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Abstract
COVID-19 is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which jumped into the human population in late 2019 from a currently uncharacterised animal reservoir. Due to this recent association with humans, SARS-CoV-2 may not yet be fully adapted to its human host. This has led to speculations that SARS-CoV-2 may be evolving towards higher transmissibility. The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. At this stage we find no evidence for significantly more transmissible lineages of SARS-CoV-2 due to recurrent mutations.


Discussion
In this work, we analysed a data set of >46,700 SARS-CoV-2 assemblies sampled across 99 different countries and all major continental regions. Current patterns of genomic diversity highlight multiple introductions in all continents (Fig. 1 and Supplementary Figs. 1–3) since the host-switch to humans in late 20191,2,3,4. Across our data set, we identified a total of 12,706 mutations, heavily enriched in C→U transitions, of which we identified 398 strongly supported recurrent mutations (Supplementary Data 3 and Supplementary Figs. 4 and 5). Employing a phylogenetic index (RoHO) to test whether these recurrent mutations contribute to a change in transmission, we found no candidate convincingly associated with a significant increase or decrease in transmissibility (Figs. 2 and 3 and Supplementary Data 4).
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

That’d be good news, but published 25 November with time delay between peer review and publication...bottom of the article...
Received
18 June 2020

Accepted
30 October 2020
That’s like a 100 years ago in pandemic time.

From this article...

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12 ... ns-unclear
In a press conference on Saturday, chief science advisor Patrick Vallance said that B.1.1.7, which first appeared in a virus isolated on 20 September, accounted for about 26% of cases in mid-November. “By the week commencing the 9th of December, these figures were much higher,” he said. “So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant.” Boris Johnson added that the slew of mutations may have increased the virus’s transmissibility by 70%.
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by Sangoma »

Fair enough. What does it mean in terms of vaccination then?
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Re: Wu Flu

Post by nafod »

Hopefully nothing. That seems to be the case, that it doesn’t impact vaccine efficacy, as the vaccine trains the immune system to look for lots more than just those few protein features.

It’s mind-blowing that they actually had the vaccine designed in January, days after getting the genetic code of the virus. It’s all been testing and production ramp-up since then.
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