What to make of the election?

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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Fat Cat »

Shafpocalypse Now wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:39 pm As long as a vote is done in a legal and timely fashion, they should count.

If there is suspect activity, this should be investigated. Why does the DNC have a reputation for vote fraud? Because it's happened in the past. Just like why the RNC is often accused of voter suppression...that shit has happened too. Did either happen in this election? We shall see. Given the record turn out for voting, doesn't look like much suppression happened despite cries to the contrary. In Texas,Dems were crying about all sorts of shit that turned out to be nonsense, as record numbers of votes were made and the DNC made significant strides in specific areas.

From what I had heard, Trump's lawsuits focus more on procedure and process. For example, there is a path to change your vote if you are a mail in voter in some states, whereas this path is closed to anyone who votes in person on election day.

In general, I feel that even if fraud was committed it couldn't be enough to push the win over to Biden, but then again I have a massive problem believing Biden got 8 million more votes than Obama (or whatever it was)
Agree on all points except that it couldn't be enough to push Biden over for the win. The difference in Pennsylvania is 54,211 if the quick number search I did is right. That seems like a very plausible amount, particularly if they are vote switches, in which case the relevant number is approximately half that.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Turdacious »

nafod wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:46 pm This is the sort of bullshit we're putting up from Trump MAGA-sters. From the Ambassador to Denmark...
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She's from Pennsylvania, my state. A quick check of wikipedia to get her birthday, and looking it up myself (where I checked my own status)
https://www.pavoterservices.pa.gov/page ... cking.aspx
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Re: What to make of the election?

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Turdacious wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:48 pm Stalker alert!!!!!
She is kind of hot
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Re: What to make of the election?

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"EFFECTIVE MONDAY: I'm issuing a Stay-at-Home Advisory asking all Chicagoans to only leave their homes for essential needs, including work and school." - Mayor Lori "Beetlejuice" Lightfoot

https://www.chicago.gov/city/en/sites/c ... icago.html

I hope SPELLS enjoys cowering in his home.
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Re: What to make of the election?

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Chicago is going to Hawaii for Thanksgiving. Direct flights from OHare.
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Re: What to make of the election?

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I'm sorry that's been debunked.
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Re: What to make of the election?

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The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by DrDonkeyLove... »

Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.

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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by nafod »

DrDonkeyLove... wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:33 pm
Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.
The key metric at the moment is hospitalizations and ICU beds used. This site is as good as any for tracking that statistic. I follow them on Twitter too.

https://covidtracking.com/data

This has some information you are asking about, in links.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... rd/617061/
Last edited by nafod on Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by nafod »

Here's my prediction, I hope I'm wrong. We are about two weeks out from Thanksgiving. During that week, the hospitalizations are going to explode, the hospitals will be overwhelmed, people will go untreated, and therefore fatality rate will skyrocket. Two weeks from now.

Hospitals are at their limit now, but the surge of hospitalizations hasn't hit yet. Hospitalizations lag infections by about two weeks.

With the group where I work, we've had monitoring since the Spring. Made it with no cases through the whole summer and September, even as the students came back and the campus has had them. We are getting them daily now.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Fat Cat »

nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:33 pm
Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.
The key metric at the moment is hospitalizations and ICU beds used. This site is as good as any for tracking that statistic. I follow them on Twitter too.

https://covidtracking.com/data

This has some information you are asking about, in links.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... rd/617061/
Doesn't that make you feel lied to? The whole rationale for shutdowns earlier in the year was to relieve the burden on healthcare providers and suppliers while they ramped up capacity. Everybody with an ounce of sense knew that the winter would be the critical time, as with all other respiratory infections known to man. So now, yes, winter is coming, and where are we but in the exact same predicament, only poorer and less prepared than ever before? This is an astonishing reveal, our leaders are fucking incompetents.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Fat Cat »

Another angle is that the tests themselves are shit, and trying to measure "cases" with them is stupid. The relevant metrics are hospitalizations and deaths, which are observable and externally validatable. The media, intent on terrifying people of course, loves pump the numbers up but who cares if all you get is an asymptomatic positive test? Look at Elon:https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... nfirmation

Something extremely bogus is going on. Was tested for covid four times today. Two tests came back negative, two came back positive. Same machine, same test, same nurse. Rapid antigen test from BD.
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 13, 2020
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by nafod »

Fat Cat wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:28 pm
nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:33 pm
Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.
The key metric at the moment is hospitalizations and ICU beds used. This site is as good as any for tracking that statistic. I follow them on Twitter too.

https://covidtracking.com/data

This has some information you are asking about, in links.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... rd/617061/
Doesn't that make you feel lied to? The whole rationale for shutdowns earlier in the year was to relieve the burden on healthcare providers and suppliers while they ramped up capacity. Everybody with an ounce of sense knew that the winter would be the critical time, as with all other respiratory infections known to man. So now, yes, winter is coming, and where are we but in the exact same predicament, only poorer and less prepared than ever before? This is an astonishing reveal, our leaders are fucking incompetents.
It has always been known, and remains so, that if you run around without masks in crowded places yelling, and you don't track the state of the infections with capable testing, that the rate of growth will exceed 1 and you get exponential growth. And here's the deal with exponential growth...it will always exceed your capacity if you don't control it. No matter how big your hospital.

We are in an exponential growth phase. It is out of control.

If we hadn't relaxed restrictions so much, and maybe tightened them down before the known increase coming in the winter, we could have muddled along below hospital capacity until a vaccine came along. People like Fauci and Birx have not been quiet about this.

But now we're fucked. In the worst spots, it is going to take a total shutdown to reign it in, or they will just throw up the hands and give up trying. Portable morgues, people dying at home, hospitals completely overran.

Die is cast already for Thanksgiving week and following. Bleh...

Has anybody from the current government talked about any of this recently?

Wear a mask!
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by nafod »

This from the QAnon candidate.
.
masks.JPG
masks.JPG (34.48 KiB) Viewed 4341 times
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It's really not that hard to figure out why we are in the situation we are in right now.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Sua Sponte »

Apolitical post. Informational only.

Firewalled
https://www.wsj.com/articles/doctors-be ... lHqdzb3NTU

Doctors Begin to Crack Covid’s Mysterious Long-Term Effects
Severe fatigue, memory lapses, heart problems affect patients who weren’t that badly hit initially; ‘It’s been so long

Nearly a year into the global coronavirus pandemic, scientists, doctors and patients are beginning to unlock a puzzling phenomenon: For many patients, including young ones who never required hospitalization, Covid-19 has a devastating second act.

Many are dealing with symptoms weeks or months after they were expected to recover, often with puzzling new complications that can affect the entire body—severe fatigue, cognitive issues and memory lapses, digestive problems, erratic heart rates, headaches, dizziness, fluctuating blood pressure, even hair loss.

What is surprising to doctors is that many such cases involve people whose original cases weren’t the most serious, undermining the assumption that patients with mild Covid-19 recover within two weeks. Doctors call the condition “post-acute Covid” or “chronic Covid,” and sufferers often refer to themselves as “long haulers” or “long-Covid” patients.

“Usually, the patients with bad disease are most likely to have persistent symptoms, but Covid doesn’t work like that,” said Trisha Greenhalgh, professor of primary care at the University of Oxford and the lead author of an August BMJ study that was among the first to define chronic Covid patients as those with symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks and spanning multiple organ systems.

For many such patients, she said, “the disease itself is not that bad,” but symptoms like memory lapses and rapid heart rate sometimes persist for months.

In October, the National Institutes of Health added a description of such cases to its Covid-19 treatment guidelines, saying doctors were reporting Covid-19-related long-term symptoms and disabilities in people with milder illness.

“You don’t realize how lucky you are with your health until you don’t have it,” said Elizabeth Moore, a 43-year-old lawyer and mother of three in Valparaiso, Ind. Pre-Covid-19 she was an avid skier and did boot-camp workouts several times a week. Since falling ill in March, she has been struggling with symptoms including memory problems and gastrointestinal issues. She has lost nearly 30 pounds.

Estimates about the percentage of Covid-19 patients who experience long-haul symptoms range widely. A recent survey of more than 4,000 Covid-19 patients found that about 10% of those age 18 to 49 still struggled with symptoms four weeks after becoming sick, that 4.5% of all ages had symptoms for more than eight weeks, and 2.3% had them for more than 12 weeks. The study, which hasn’t yet been peer reviewed, was performed using an app created by the health-science company Zoe in cooperation with King’s College London and Massachusetts General Hospital.

Another preliminary study looking mostly at nonhospitalized Covid patients found that about 25% still had at least one symptom after 90 days. A European study found about one-third of 1,837 nonhospitalized patients reported being dependent on a caregiver about three months after symptoms started.

With more than 46 million cases world-wide, even the lower estimates would translate into millions living with long-term, sometimes disabling conditions, increasing the urgency to study this patient population, researchers said. What they find could have implications for how clinicians define recovery and what therapies they prescribe, doctors said.

Doctors say anxiety caused by social isolation and uncertainty surrounding the pandemic may exacerbate symptoms, though that isn’t likely the primary cause.

Other viral outbreaks, including the original SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1 and the Spanish flu, have been associated with long-term symptoms. Scientists reported that some patients experienced fatigue, sleep problems and joint and muscle pain long after their bodies cleared a virus, according to a recent review chronicling the long-term effects of viral infections.

What differentiates Covid-19 is the far-reaching nature of its effects. While it starts in the lungs, it often affects many other parts of the body, including the heart, kidneys and the digestive and nervous systems, doctors said.

“I haven’t really seen any other illness that affects so many different organ systems in as many different ways as Covid does,” said Zijian Chen, medical director for Mount Sinai Health System’s Center for Post-Covid Care.

He described colleagues who were energetic, but after getting sick, had trouble getting through the day. He said he has seen up close how Covid-19 still affects their ability to do the things they love.

“We thought it was a virus that, once it does what it does, you recover and you go back to normal,” he said. Sometimes that isn’t the case, and that “is really scary,” he said.

A leading explanation for long-Covid symptoms is that immune-system activity and ensuing inflammation continue to affect organs or the nervous system even after the virus is gone, researchers said.

Some of the most compelling evidence for the inflammation theory comes from Covid-19 patients with signs of heart inflammation and injury months after illness. One study looking at 100 Covid-19 patients two months after getting sick found that 78 had abnormal findings on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging, while 60 had cardiac MRIs indicating heart-muscle inflammation. The study included hospitalized, nonhospitalized and asymptomatic patients.

“Even those who had no symptoms and were young and fit…even in those patients we saw abnormalities,” said Eike Nagel, one of the lead authors and director of the Institute for Experimental and Translational Cardiovascular Imaging at the University Hospital Frankfurt in Germany.

Some patients had scarring on their heart imaging, he said, which worried him. The scarring wasn’t too serious, he said, but “we know from other studies that this is related to worse outcomes.”

Doctors also are reporting cases of long-Covid patients with gastrointestinal issues. Recent work has found the new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, in fecal matter and intestinal lining of some Covid-19 patients, suggesting the virus can infect and damage the cells of the gut. The intestines have a high density of ACE2 receptors, a type of protein on the surface of cells, which SARS-CoV-2 uses to infiltrate cells.

The virus also might cause changes in gut bacteria, said Brennan Spiegel, a gastroenterologist and director of health services research at Cedars-Sinai Health System, who has had patients come in with abdominal pain and diarrhea weeks or months after coming down with Covid-19.

Ms. Moore, the Indiana lawyer, got Covid-19 in March and initially felt better by the end of April. “I thought I beat this thing. I was ecstatic,” said Ms. Moore, who tested positive for coronavirus antibodies in May.

That month, her health took a sharp turn for the worse. She struggled with tachycardia, or a racing heartbeat, and blood-pressure fluctuations. Those symptoms improved, but she still has gastrointestinal problems. A recent test found stomach-lining inflammation. Pepcid, antihistamines and avoiding dairy products have provided some relief, but other symptoms such as memory deficits persist.

“I feel like there has to be some sort of next step,” she said, “because I’m not ready to accept this as my new reality.”

She enrolled in a research study at the Neuro Covid-19 Clinic at Northwestern Medicine in Chicago, one of several clinics across the country aiming to find solutions for patients.

Some symptoms could be collateral damage from the body’s immune response during the acute infection, researchers said. Some patients might harbor an undetectable reservoir of infectious virus or have bits of noninfectious virus in some cells that trigger an immune response, they said.

Another possibility is that the virus causes some people’s immune systems to attack and damage their own organs and tissues, researchers said. A June study found roughly half of 29 hospitalized ICU patients with Covid-19 had one or more types of autoantibodies—antibodies that mistakenly target and attack a patient’s own tissues or organs.

Doctors say some patients appear to be developing dysautonomia, or dysregulation of the autonomic nervous system, the part of the nervous system that regulates involuntary functions like breathing, digestion and heart rate, some researchers and doctors said.

David Putrino, director of rehabilitation innovation at Mount Sinai Health System in New York City, said the majority of the more than 300 long-Covid patients being seen at its Center for Post-Covid Care appear to have developed a dysautonomia-like condition. About 90% of such patients report having symptoms of exercise intolerance, fatigue and elevated heartbeats. About 40% to 50% also report symptoms such as gastrointestinal issues, headaches and shortness of breath.

Dr. Putrino said inflammation from the virus might be disrupting the normal functioning of the vagus nerve—the body’s longest cranial nerve—which relays messages to the lungs, gut and heart.

As a member of the Johns Hopkins University varsity cross-country team, 19-year-old Christopher Wilhelm used to run 10 miles a day. Now, there are days he can’t even walk a quarter mile with his mom around their Maitland, Fla., neighborhood without feeling wiped out.

Mr. Wilhelm, who tested positive for Covid-19 in June, said his heart rate shoots up during those walks, ranging from 130 to 170 beats a minute. He was diagnosed recently with a form of dysautonomia characterized by fluctuations in blood pressure and heart rate when patients sit or stand up, a condition known as postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or POTS. His doctors also are evaluating him for cardiac issues. Medications he has tried haven’t yet helped his heart-rate spikes.

“After I tested positive, I was just expecting it to be two weeks of flulike symptoms, and then I’d pretty much be back to normal,” he said. “It’s been so long already, it’s kind of daunting.”

Six months after getting sick with Covid-19, Jennica Harris, 33, said she has persistent fatigue and problems with memory and concentration. She struggles to find simple words during conversations, often loses her train of thought and has developed a stutter.

The constellation of such neurological symptoms, along with persistent fatigue, joint pain and headaches, resembles myalgic encephalomyelitis, also known as chronic fatigue syndrome, said Anthony Komaroff, a Harvard Medical School professor of medicine who has studied the syndrome for decades. The condition can follow certain viral and bacterial infections, he said. He thinks the condition likely follows Covid-19, too, at least in a portion of patients. A 2009 study of 233 SARS survivors found 27% met criteria for chronic fatigue syndrome four years after getting sick.

It still isn’t known whether the new coronavirus gets into the brain itself, or if Covid-19’s neurological symptoms stem from a body-wide inflammatory response, scientists say.

In autopsies of some Covid-19 patients, doctors have observed encephalitis, or inflammation of the brain. Small autopsy studies also have found preliminary evidence of coronavirus particles in regions of the brain important for smell. With other infections, viral particles have been found in the brains of patients with encephalitis, though it is rare, said Walter Royal, a neurovirologist and director of Morehouse School of Medicine’s Neuroscience Institute. What is more common is that the virus infects the lining of the blood vessels, causing damage and inflammation that in turn affects the brain.

How long it will take long-Covid patients to recover remains unknown. Dr. Putrino said most of them won’t get better on their own, and will need at least six months of structured rehabilitation.

“What tends to happen to people who don’t get treatment and don’t get the recognition they need is they slump down to a new normal of function,” he said.


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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by upsideyahead »

nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:51 pm
Fat Cat wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:28 pm
nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:33 pm
Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.
The key metric at the moment is hospitalizations and ICU beds used. This site is as good as any for tracking that statistic. I follow them on Twitter too.

https://covidtracking.com/data

This has some information you are asking about, in links.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... rd/617061/
Doesn't that make you feel lied to? The whole rationale for shutdowns earlier in the year was to relieve the burden on healthcare providers and suppliers while they ramped up capacity. Everybody with an ounce of sense knew that the winter would be the critical time, as with all other respiratory infections known to man. So now, yes, winter is coming, and where are we but in the exact same predicament, only poorer and less prepared than ever before? This is an astonishing reveal, our leaders are fucking incompetents.
It has always been known, and remains so, that if you run around without masks in crowded places yelling, and you don't track the state of the infections with capable testing, that the rate of growth will exceed 1 and you get exponential growth. And here's the deal with exponential growth...it will always exceed your capacity if you don't control it. No matter how big your hospital.

We are in an exponential growth phase. It is out of control.

If we hadn't relaxed restrictions so much, and maybe tightened them down before the known increase coming in the winter, we could have muddled along below hospital capacity until a vaccine came along. People like Fauci and Birx have not been quiet about this.

But now we're fucked. In the worst spots, it is going to take a total shutdown to reign it in, or they will just throw up the hands and give up trying. Portable morgues, people dying at home, hospitals completely overran.

Die is cast already for Thanksgiving week and following. Bleh...

Has anybody from the current government talked about any of this recently?

Wear a mask!
Massive LOL. Take a deep breath, Nancy.

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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by nafod »

upsideyahead wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:34 pm Massive LOL. Take a deep breath, Nancy.
We'll see how this ages. I'll be here if you need me.

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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by DrDonkeyLove... »

nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 2:43 pm
DrDonkeyLove... wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:33 pm
Turdacious wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:49 am The icu bed shortage is gonna be a problem in a lot of places.
One could logically presume this but where's the data?
  • What % of more recent cases require hospitalization?
    • How long are they hospitalized compared to those infected early on?
    • What is the survival rate of those infected during this wave?
    • What are the age groups dying in this wave?
    • What are the main comorbidities of those dying in this wave?
It's been a solid 8 months since the Wuhan hit, why isn't this simple data available to everybody daily? Hospital systems must be much better prepared than they were in March. How much better?

It's a mystery that shouldn't be a mystery at all and key players on Joe's team want LOCKDOWN yet the people are missing critical information.
The key metric at the moment is hospitalizations and ICU beds used. This site is as good as any for tracking that statistic. I follow them on Twitter too.

https://covidtracking.com/data

This has some information you are asking about, in links.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/arc ... rd/617061/
I discovered the COVID 19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool this afternoon. Frankly, I haven't grasped its full capabilities yet but the county by county risk map was full of surprises to me. Definitely did not expect TX & FL to be less risky than IL, WI & MN.
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Re: What to make of the election?

Post by Grandpa's Spells »

nafod wrote: Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:12 pm This from the QAnon candidate.
.
masks.JPG
.
It's really not that hard to figure out why we are in the situation we are in right now.
Imbeciles aside, I am seeing generally that the middle-of-the-road folks are slacking. Everyone in my office has an immediate family member or parent who's contracted Covid. Some of this has happened quite recently.

Some stat out the other day showed that in Cook County, a group of 10 people would have a 39% chance of someone having COVID. In a lot of Kansas counties, it's 95-99%.

Lockdowns are starting up locally but very late IMO. Depressing morgue stories soon to come.
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