Biden's America: Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border

[Fat Cat]

See: https://emerging-europe.com/news/does-r ... -imminent/

And here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... rder-moves

And here: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/u ... n-ukraine/

Russia has sparked alarm in Ukraine and throughout the international community in recent days by massing its armed forces close to the Ukrainian border. The military build-up has raised fears of a possible Russian offensive that could push beyond the areas of eastern Ukraine currently under Kremlin control and lead to a dramatic escalation in the simmering seven-year conflict between the two countries.

Ukraine’s Western partners have responded to the threat by voicing their support for Ukrainian sovereignty and calling on Russia to end its aggressive actions. As tensions mounted late last week, US President Joe Biden made his long-awaited first call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and “affirmed the United States’ unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression in the Donbas and Crimea.”

Basically, the Russian Federation is establishing a crescent of military around Donetsk and Luhansk. On the Black Sea it's harder to know, but for sure, they have naval assets and probably some submarines there as well. It's harder to know why, but what I have heard is that the breakaway areas on Donetsk and Luhansk represent a serious economic burden on Russia's relatively anemic economy, as does their newly acquired Crimea, as does their ongoing engagement in Syria.

Making matters worse, now-Russian Crimea is undergoing a severe freshwater crisis. Much of the water that is available is saline, and its use for irrigation is causing serious soil salinity problems. Putin had the opportunity to construct a desalinization plant there, but declined, preferring a proposal to bring freshwater in from the north via a canal from the Dnieper River. Unfortunately for those plans, Ukraine has built a dam on its territory, blocking any canal.

Now Russia finds itself in a pinch, a Zugzwang, to borrow a chess term. Putin is obligated to make a move, which puts him at a disadvantage, but he has little choice but to act. And while Russia is compelled to act, Ukraine can afford to site back and wait. They've been busy penning deals with USA, EU, Qatar, etc. while Russia is manacled by sanctions for the annexation of Ukraine and other classic Ivan high jinks. Now Russia isn't about to collapse, but it's in a weak spot and Putin is more vulnerable personally than he has been in some time, with quite a bit of interest around Navalny and the corruption he alleged, which has damaged Putin's party United Russia.

Now, with Biden in office, the USA is insisting on being involved in the ongoing Normandy Talks re: Ukraine. Russia won't allow this, it wants only to deal with France, Germany, and Ukraine because it has them over a barrel with energy supplies. However, USA is now in a position to threaten conditional sanctions that would be levied on Russia if it escalates in Ukraine. The sanctions could be placed on a major bank such as Vnesheconombank, but certainly on Nord Stream 2.

Now, the possibility is that Putin will look at the writing on the wall and go for a big grab of eastern Ukraine. He can shore up domestic support with a tidy, successful war, get his freshwater canal, and use the profits to offset the sanctions. I'm curious if any of you guys have been watching this and where you think it is all going.

[Fat Cat]

Whole lotta hardware on the move here:

And here:

[Turdacious]

Fire sale on Russian debt too. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/ ... low-a73489

[Fat Cat]

Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to give a major address in which he will fire the starting pistol on a “new era” and set out a different vision for the future of his country as the Covid-19 pandemic wanes.

The chairwoman of the Russian Senate, Valentina Matvienko, told reporters on Tuesday that the speech would set out answers to a number of challenges facing the world.

“This will be a message for a new age,” she said. “But at the same time, as always, current issues will be addressed, focuses will be defined and direct instructions will be given.” Matvienko added that “in the current difficult environment facing the world, which comes with many obstacles for countries including Russia,” the address would become “the most important political and public event.”

Source: https://www.rt.com/russia/520258-putin- ... ss-future/

[Fat Cat]

Fire sale on Russian debt too. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/ ... low-a73489

That's unsurprising given the uncertainty around Russia right now. A big part of this has to be Putin giving ol' Biden a gut check, but there are real moves being played out, and risking assets in that kind of climate seems...imprudent right now.

[Gene]

Russia has sparked alarm in Ukraine and throughout the international community in recent days by massing its armed forces close to the Ukrainian border. The military build-up has raised fears of a possible Russian offensive that could push beyond the areas of eastern Ukraine currently under Kremlin control and lead to a dramatic escalation in the simmering seven-year conflict between the two countries.

From April 2 2021.....

Ukraine's army commander Gen Ruslan Khomchak says Russia has deployed 28 battalion tactical groups near Ukraine's eastern border and in Crimea, which would amount to 20,000-25,000 troops. Russian officials have not confirmed that, nor given any precise figures.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56616778

The RF armed forces are around 1,000,000 people. This 'massing' is at most 2.5 percent of the Russian military.

Ukraine has a total military of 255,000 to 280,000. We're talking a "build up" of 10 percent of Ukraine's armed forces. Maybe the border police couldn't handle it, the UAF should be able to handle it.

NATO threat inflation.

[Gene]

NATO exercises (Europe Defender 2021). From March to June.

"One of the largest U.S.-Army led military exercises in decades has kicked off and will run until June, with 28,000 total troops from 27 nations taking part. Defender Europe 2021 will include “nearly simultaneous operations across more than 30 training areas” in a dozen countries."

https://www.armytimes.com/news/your-arm ... kicks-off/

Talk is that Russia will push back if Ukraine moves into Donbass.

[nafod]

The long game (the real long game) doesn't look good for Russia as its population declines and it remains a petro-state.

With the loss of their patron in the White House, they're doing some poking and prodding to see what the new response is. I figure this is part of the process.

[Fat Cat]

More buildup as material crosses over the Kerch Straight into Crimea:

[Fat Cat]

U.S. concerned about Russian troop movements near Ukraine, discussing regional tensions with NATO allies

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/us-conc ... -nato.html

[Wild Bill]

"Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border"

This is definitely not Biden's fault :)

[Wild Bill]

He is maybe only to blame for inciting Zelensky.

[Gene]

Ukraine Presidential Decree 117 - Oct 20 2020

The Ukrainian government is looking for new effective tools for this. In particular, it is creating a "Crimean Platform" format - the coordination of international efforts to protect the rights of Crimeans and deoccupy the peninsula.

“I have already discussed this initiative in detail with representatives of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Turkey and other partners. Many of them are ready to join and take an active part in it,” the Head of State informed.

According to him, the state and government officials must make decisions that will bring deoccupation closer already now.

“All Ukrainians must equally understand what will happen after the liberation and return of our temporarily occupied territories. Having achieved peace, we will begin secure reintegration based on successful international experience. This is a package of laws on the transition period, first of all - on responsibility,” the President noted, adding that it is also about special economic conditions for Donbas.

“We need the Strategy of economic development of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which will include tax and customs preferences, insurance of military-political risks for investors, arbitration according to international standards. Work on it has already begun,” he stressed.

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/gl ... klyu-64729

[Gene]

Bypassing Ukrainian pipelines, Nordstream 2 completion will start. Putin's "patron" Donald Trump supported sanctions against Nordstream 2. Germany wants to finish Nordstream 2 because of energy problems with wind and solar.

Russia may decide to trade water for natural gas.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2193 ... g-to-start

https://energyfuse.org/nord-stream-2-ne ... e-options/

[Fat Cat]

"Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border"

This is definitely not Biden's fault :)

What do you think is going on? Also, don't hate on the title of my thread, one of the links I posted literally showed trainloads of tanks moving across the Kerch Straight towards Ukraine's border. It's not a judgment, just an observed fact.

[Wild Bill]

"Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border"

This is definitely not Biden's fault :)

What do you think is going on? Also, don't hate on the title of my thread, one of the links I posted literally showed trainloads of tanks moving across the Kerch Straight towards Ukraine's border. It's not a judgment, just an observed fact.

Zelensky's rating has fallen to record depths, he needs to do something. He decided to draw attention to himself. He resumed shelling, brought the troops to the borders with Donbas (even beyond the line of the Minsk agreements).
Putin said that in the event of an attack by Ukraine on Donbas, the very statehood of Ukraine would be in question. And Russia began to bring troops to the borders with Ukraine.
Actually, Zelensky has already achieved what he wanted, attracted attention.

[Wild Bill]

The last victim of the Ukrainian shelling was a 4-year-old boy. This of course greatly raised the level of anger towards Ukraine

[Wild Bill]

.

[Wild Bill]

In short, the situation is very explosive, Ukraine now has only to strike a match.

[Fat Cat]

"Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border"

This is definitely not Biden's fault :)

What do you think is going on? Also, don't hate on the title of my thread, one of the links I posted literally showed trainloads of tanks moving across the Kerch Straight towards Ukraine's border. It's not a judgment, just an observed fact.

Zelensky's rating has fallen to record depths, he needs to do something. He decided to draw attention to himself. He resumed shelling, brought the troops to the borders with Donbas (even beyond the line of the Minsk agreements).
Putin said that in the event of an attack by Ukraine on Donbas, the very statehood of Ukraine would be in question. And Russia began to bring troops to the borders with Ukraine.
Actually, Zelensky has already achieved what he wanted, attracted attention.

That's the story coming out of Russia, but you can understand why many people have a hard time believing it. After all, if Ukraine would invade Donbas or Luhansk, it guarantees a confrontation with Russia that it's not in a position to win. So, what is the advantage for Ukraine? Whereas, the advantage to Russia in provoking a confrontation is clear: stabilize Eastern Ukraine under its influence, get fresh water, and seize valuable real estate like Mariupol.

Again, I am not saying that's what's happening, but that it how it appears from the (far) outside looking in.

[Wild Bill]

" So, what is the advantage for Ukraine?"

Ukraine is now in a winning position.
They can launch an attack and Russia is a loser no matter what it does.

If Russia retaliates, then there will be a fuss about cruel Russia, Nord Stream 2 will be closed ... etc.

If Russia doesn’t answer, it’s even worse.

[Wild Bill]

Again, I am not saying that's what's happening, but that it how it appears from the (far) outside looking in.

I understand.
In any case, in last years I have matured enough not to try to convince someone that my opinion is right :)

[Fat Cat]

Again, I am not saying that's what's happening, but that it how it appears from the (far) outside looking in.

I understand.
In any case, in last years I have matured enough not to try to convince someone that my opinion is right :)

I'm happy to not have an opinion about countries really, really far away from me that I've never been to. I'm just interested as an observer, so don't worry about convincing me one way or another. It's just that you're in RF and I'm curious what your viewpoint is. From my point of view, Ukraine is better off playing the long game and waiting, I would think, whereas Russia has to do something sooner rather than later.

Also, I've been hearing a lot about Ukraine partnering with Turkey to develop their military capabilities. I think a lot of people drew lessons from the late unpleasantness between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and their respective backers Russia and Turkey. What is the mentality in Russia about Turkish plans for the region? Russia and Turkey, well of course they have a rocky past, but currently the relationship seems pretty crazy. On the one hand cooperating in Syria and on the other having a bit of a proxy war in the Kavkaz.

[Wild Bill]

...unpleasantness between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and their respective backers Russia and Turkey. What is the mentality in Russia about Turkish plans for the region? Russia and Turkey, well of course they have a rocky past, but currently the relationship seems pretty crazy. On the one hand cooperating in Syria and on the other having a bit of a proxy war in the Kavkaz.

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are trade partners of Russia. In fact, the trade turnover with Azerbaijan is even greater than with Armenia.
For Russia, it really didn’t matter who won there, if only they would calm down faster.

So it wasnt proxy war. Russia did not backed Armenia this time.

[nafod]

"Russian Military Buildup on Ukrainian Border"

This is definitely not Biden's fault :)

What do you think is going on? Also, don't hate on the title of my thread, one of the links I posted literally showed trainloads of tanks moving across the Kerch Straight towards Ukraine's border. It's not a judgment, just an observed fact.

Zelensky's rating has fallen to record depths, he needs to do something. He decided to draw attention to himself. He resumed shelling, brought the troops to the borders with Donbas (even beyond the line of the Minsk agreements).
Putin said that in the event of an attack by Ukraine on Donbas, the very statehood of Ukraine would be in question. And Russia began to bring troops to the borders with Ukraine.
Actually, Zelensky has already achieved what he wanted, attracted attention.

That's the story coming out of Russia, but you can understand why many people have a hard time believing it.

Russia lacks an open media environment, and you can be 100% sure the story is the one Putin wants.