Make A Tuesday Prediction

DrDonkeyLove · Post by **DrDonkeyLove** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:51 am

Not who do you support, but which candidate wins the presidency?

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:01 am

this guy appears to know polls. he has been mentioned here previously, i believe.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

___________ · Post by **___________** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:08 am

*****

johno · Post by **johno** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:10 am

MarcoFP wrote:Obama.
That nigger by slaughter.

Go back to shit you know. Like grappling.

___________ · Post by **___________** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:11 am

*****

Holland Oates · Post by **Holland Oates** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:34 am

Romney. The Redskins lost today.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:36 am

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

IMO this will be used to explain the results.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:52 am

There are dozens of presidential opinion polls these days, and even more interpretations what they mean. But predictions keep changing, which calls into question how useful they are. The closer you get to an election the easier it is to call it, at least in theory. But it is not really predicting when you change your take on the race with every new poll. For example Nate Silver at his New York Times blog has consistently “predicted” an Obama victory, yet has altered the odds on a daily basis. This is the equivalent of claiming you can predict the outcome of a baseball game, but then changing the odds inning by inning to reflect the evolving state of play. Yes your “prediction” will be very accurate once you reach the 9th inning, but it also doesn't take a stat wizard to make the call.

Traditional social science models do more than simply rehash and average out the latest daily surveys. They look at the influence of variables like age, education, income, sex, race, the economy, and other such factors to come up with more durable conclusions. For example University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have developed a model based on state-level economic data that predicts Mitt Romney winning with 330 electoral votes. They have applied this model successfully to every presidential race since 1980. It does not shift around with the polls; in fact it does not use them at all.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/rob ... -cant-win/

Reminds me of a line from a song:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKV_0Ow04lU[/youtube]

Protobuilder · Post by **Protobuilder** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:45 am

Not that many opportunities for Romney to pull this election out.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012 ... house.html

KingSchmaltzBagelHour · Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:48 pm

Romney. Just a guess, but I don't see the blacks and youths getting out in force like last time.

KingSchmaltzBagelHour · Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:50 pm

However, I know a lot of former republicans who switched sides after governor Kasichs antics last year...who knows?

Ryan · Post by **Ryan** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:48 pm

ButterCupPowerRanch wrote: I don't see the blacks and youths getting out in force like last time.

I think the minorities are going to come out and vote. I think Obama will win because of that.

It's just like any other election. You vote for who you think is the lesser of 2 evils. I'm voting for Romney.

dingleberry · Post by **dingleberry** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:05 pm

We all lose whichever one wins.

tough old man · Post by **tough old man** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 2:19 pm

Does it really matter?

Shapecharge · Post by **Shapecharge** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:13 pm

I heard a pollster this morning on the way in to work that had an interesting angle. Prior to the hurricane he gave a slight edge to Mitt but after the hurricane he thinks the fed response will resonate positively with some people and be enough to win the election. Ehh.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:30 pm

tough old man wrote:Does it really matter?

Yes

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qk12ALX9fz8[/youtube]

tough old man · Post by **tough old man** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:35 pm

Turd, that is exactly what I was thinking!

TerryB · Post by **TerryB** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:54 pm

It's going to come down to whichever candidate wins Tuesday.

johno · Post by **johno** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:18 pm

Fed-up-ness with Obama & his economy will far exceed any Hope & Change carryover from four years ago. Independents & Undecideds go to Romney for the win.

Also, the R base will turn out more than the D's will. I don't see college kids & the newly graduated unemployed showing enthusiasm to vote. Same for minorities. It's not 2008 any more.

milosz · Post by **milosz** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:39 pm

Obama with right around 300 electoral votes.

Pinky · Post by **Pinky** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:42 pm

Turdacious wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

IMO this will be used to explain the results.

This is the best argument I've heard for betting on Romney, but I still think Obama's most likely to win.

I just hope it's not settled quickly and easily. I'm hoping for some good laughs over the coming week or two.

kreator · Post by **kreator** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 4:47 pm

protobuilder wrote:It's going to come down to whichever candidate wins Tuesday.

Wrong. The guy who has less votes will lose.

Kenny X · Post by **Kenny X** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:01 pm

I don't care for either of them. And I think Romney will win by way of circumstances which, though they do not appear similar to the way in which Dubya won over Gore, feel eerily similar, in that Scooby Doo kind of way.

I'm writing-in Frank Zappa, myself. He may be dead, but I have all his records, I agree 100% with the views he espoused while he was alive, and 200 Motels was awesome.

tough old man · Post by **tough old man** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:17 pm

I just hope it's not settled quickly and easily. I'm hoping for some good laughs over the coming week or two.

Thats good right there.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 5:57 pm

Truman beat Dewey despite being behind in the polls because a lot of Truman's supporters didn't have phones. IMO another reason the polls are off is because of cell phones-- people aren't answering calls from unfamiliar and blocked numbers. And those polls could be off in either direction.

IGX

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