USA & Iran: Nuke Deal is Kaput

[Fat Cat]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/worl ... v=top-news

I dunno man. On the one hand I don't trust the mullahocracy, but on the other, this was at least a foot in the door with a suite of inspections and other measures to control the advance of nuclear technology in the good ol' Islamic Republic. Now we have nothing, and we look like inconsistent assholes.

It's also not a good look for a future nuke deal with DPRK. Not sure where things go now.

[Yes I Have Balls]

Yeah!!! Just what we needed, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. I'm sure Saudi Arabia is gonna just chill while Iran (soon?) makes some nuclear-related advances.

John Bolton is creaming his pants right now.

[Thud]

Just another case of Trump pissing the bed Obama slept in.
And Putin loves it every time Trump pisses on our allies too.

[Grandpa's Spells]

Profoundly dumb move. Obviously lesson to Kim is "have nukes."

[Fat Cat]

Yeah!!! Just what we needed, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. I'm sure Saudi Arabia is gonna just chill while Iran (soon?) makes some nuclear-related advances.

John Bolton is creaming his pants right now.

That's certainly one take.

I guess the arguments for canceling it are along the lines of: (i) the deal being a poor one because it left Iran with a huge nuclear infrastructure which they can revive or use clandestinely at will, (ii) that the deal only really had teeth for 10 years, two of which are lapsed, (iii) its short term compels other middle eastern powers (i.e., Saudi) to clamor for nukes of their own, and (iv) that it hands Iran about $150 billion in cash to spend on Hezbollah and IRGC.

Do you think any of those objections have merit? Cuz, you know: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran ... eport-says

[Yes I Have Balls]

Yeah!!! Just what we needed, a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. I'm sure Saudi Arabia is gonna just chill while Iran (soon?) makes some nuclear-related advances.

John Bolton is creaming his pants right now.

That's certainly one take.

I guess the arguments for canceling it are along the lines of: (i) the deal being a poor one because it left Iran with a huge nuclear infrastructure which they can revive or use clandestinely at will, (ii) that the deal only really had teeth for 10 years, two of which are lapsed, (iii) its short term compels other middle eastern powers (i.e., Saudi) to clamor for nukes of their own, and (iv) that it hands Iran about $150 billion in cash to spend on Hezbollah and IRGC.

Do you think any of those objections have merit? Cuz, you know: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran ... eport-says

(i) The deal left Iran with inspections for the first time and a dormant nuclear program that our own Secretary of Defense (among others) agreed that Iran was complying with. Zero evidence of anything being conducted on the sly.
(ii) The deal, when in place, could be renegotiated with the combined force of our European allies brought to bear. Now? LOL.
(iii) Yes it could. Now, when Iran ramps its nuclear program up around the edges, what do you think Saudi Arabia is gonna do? Likely sit still and take their lumps while a Russian-backed adversary works on nukes. No.
(iv) The money was already returned to them. Most of the concessions from the US and our allies were at the beginning of the program. Now, we've scuttled our end of the deal for what? They got all the candy and we're left with the stomach ache. Trump claims Iran will come to the negotiating table? That will never happen while Trump is in office and we are left without a broad consensus that Iran was cheating the deal.


Rouhani already said "Iran will begin negotiation with the UK, France, Germany, Russia and China to save the nuclear deal. If Iran doesn’t get what it wants in a short time, it will restart its enrichment activities."

This is the same rhetoric Bolton et al., used to get us into Iraq: "They're lying to us about weapons of mass destruction! We must attack!" Of course, it was false then and is still untrue today.

[Yes I Have Balls]

I mean, here's the thing. War with Iran is a popular concept with many at the highest levels of this administration and would be a key concession to our allies in the Middle East. It would do very, very little to make the US safer. The last thing we need is a proxy war with Russia. Our European allies are backing away from us and China and Russian interests will move in.

Not to mention the grave implications this will have in talks with North Korea. The US over the past 18 months has proven time and time again that we can not be trusted to honor our treaties.

This is a very complicated issue (duh!) and the person making the ultimate decision couldn't find Iran on the map. I have yet to see ANY policy, domestic or foreign, that has a "Step 2" that follows "Step 1" of the President doing something ill timed, ill conceived, and spiteful.

Maybe I'm wrong. *shrug*

[Yes I Have Balls]

@RichardGrenell
As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.

Looks like I was wrong, we DO have a Step 2. It involves publicly pressuring our closest European allies to follow our lead. I wonder what the consequences will be for Germany, France, and England when they don't bend the knee to the president?

How much does Putin LOVE this turmoil?

[Grandpa's Spells]

The time of the announcement is a little clearer now.

[powerlifter54]

Amateur hour foreign policy continues to be cleaned up.

Except Traitor John, wildly Flaunting the Logan Act.

Better and better.

[nafod]

So right after the deal, we gave Iran back its money that we'd held from them. That's done. Can't get that back.

We placed an inspection regime that thoroughly shut down Iran's nuclear program, with constant assurance it wasn't starting back up. That's done. It's going to take work to spin it back up (but they probably will get started soon). Not sure the benefit in giving up the inspections. We had a 10 year grace period to figure out the next step and see if the Mullahs got taken down internally. The economy is failing miserably. Huge dissent internally, so far suppressed by the Mullahs, but people got to eat (unless you're North Korean).

It is going to be failing even more miserably in the near future with new sanctions placed on them. The people of Iran has pretty much had it with the Mullahs, but the Norks prove daily that popularity isn't necessary to maintain control. The Mullahs can cite the Great Satan once again.

The million dollar question is...will the Mullahs hold, or what is going to give? A revolution? Military coup? A Persian Spring? A descent into Iraq-level post-war chaos where the country dissolves? Unlike Iraq, which is an artificial country mostly, Iran has a Persian nationalism to hopefully keep it from turning into another lawless wasteland.

I'm not hearing of any plans or way forward from our Non-amateur hour foreign policy team at the moment, looking forward to something other than adjective salads of bluster.

[Grandpa's Spells]

Amateur hour foreign policy continues to be cleaned up.

Yeah about that