Make A Tuesday Prediction

nafod · Post by **nafod** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:02 pm

tough old man wrote:
I just hope it's not settled quickly and easily. I'm hoping for some good laughs over the coming week or two.
Thats good right there.

We should run a poll on when it will be settled. I vote for February.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 6:09 pm

nafod wrote:
tough old man wrote:
I just hope it's not settled quickly and easily. I'm hoping for some good laughs over the coming week or two.
Thats good right there.
We should run a poll on when it will be settled. I vote for February.

I vote for December.

Kenny X · Post by **Kenny X** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:24 pm

Turdacious wrote:Truman beat Dewey despite being behind in the polls because a lot of Truman's supporters didn't have phones. IMO another reason the polls are off is because of cell phones-- people aren't answering calls from unfamiliar and blocked numbers. And those polls could be off in either direction.

I thought it was-

: image.jpg (25.64 KiB) Viewed 3742 times

Andy83 · Post by **Andy83** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:48 pm

I had a paper route back then. When I saw that headline I knew right then the predictors were full of shit.

Thud · Post by **Thud** » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:16 pm

Romney still has a punchers chance:

However, the voting fiasco in Florida has received criticism from right-leaning figures as well. Former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (R) said on MSNBC Monday that the Florida voting debacle made us look like a “third-world country.”

“I don’t know what went on in Florida, but I do have to say that in this day and age, it’s inexcusable that in this country, we have anything like this going on. I’ve led delegations around the world to watch voting and this is the kind of thing you expect in a third-world country, not in the United States of America.”

http://www.inquisitr.com/388102/early-v ... ey-states/

http://www.salon.com/2012/11/05/ohio_re ... _machines/

The Ginger Beard Man · Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:40 pm

Irish bookies have already paid on Obama

DikTracy6000 · Post by **DikTracy6000** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:53 am

So far today(& yesterday) we've received calls from Mitt Romney(called wife by her name), Pat Boone x 2(yea, that Pat Boone), Chuck Norris and his wife about 15 minutes ago(I shit you not), a laid-off coal miner, Paul Ryan(called wife by name again), the NRA, some other pollster, the RNC, and Clint Fucking Eastwood(damn I missed that one), and it's not even 8:00 p.m. yet. Oh, I forgot Tom Smith, then later on from Tom Smith's wife, and then today his adopted daughter. Tom is running for Pa. Senate. Probably forgot a couple.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTCRwi71_ns

Schlegel · Post by **Schlegel** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:05 am

we've gotten calls today from Bruce Springsteen and Jon Bon Jovi (??!)

Holland Oates · Post by **Holland Oates** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:11 am

This shit makes me glad I don't have my home phone hooked up.

TerryB · Post by **TerryB** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:05 am

nobody's called me

I knew my vote didin't matter

Fuzzy Dunlop · Post by **Fuzzy Dunlop** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:41 am

Man, I really do hope Romney wins but I predicted Obama.

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:07 am

protobuilder wrote:I don't take my phone into the bathroom.

Grandpa's Spells · Post by **Grandpa's Spells** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:35 am

dead man walking wrote:this guy appears to know polls. he has been mentioned here previously, i believe.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

He was a poker buddy when he lived in Chicago before 08. Nice guy, very sharp. It has been weird seeing pundits going after him.

Fat Cat · Post by **Fat Cat** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:17 am

Dude, I made a prediction in 2007 about this election. Obama is a two term president. It's in the cards.

climber511 · Post by **climber511** » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:24 pm

Either way it goes - I'll be glad it's over. Two years now the government has been effectively shut down for campaigning so they didn't make anyone mad about any decisions they made. God but we need to change that damn place.

milosz · Post by **milosz** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:18 am

johno wrote:Fed-up-ness with Obama & his economy will far exceed any Hope & Change carryover from four years ago. Independents & Undecideds go to Romney for the win.

Also, the R base will turn out more than the D's will. I don't see college kids & the newly graduated unemployed showing enthusiasm to vote. Same for minorities. It's not 2008 any more.

lolololol

Protobuilder · Post by **Protobuilder** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 4:56 am

milosz wrote:
johno wrote:Fed-up-ness with Obama & his economy will far exceed any Hope & Change carryover from four years ago. Independents & Undecideds go to Romney for the win.

Also, the R base will turn out more than the D's will. I don't see college kids & the newly graduated unemployed showing enthusiasm to vote. Same for minorities. It's not 2008 any more.
lolololol

I hear you are predicting Alabama over LSU last week as well?

___________ · Post by **___________** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:16 am

johno wrote:<null>

I know niggers.

Blaidd Drwg · Post by **Blaidd Drwg** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:19 am

MarcoFP wrote:
johno wrote:<null>
I know niggers.

You have an eery command of their wiles and ways. Something tells me you've traveled among them.

___________ · Post by **___________** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:36 am

They are shifty, but predictable.

Just remember in all athletic endeavors against the brothers, chocolate melts under pressure!

Holland Oates · Post by **Holland Oates** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:10 am

MarcoFP wrote:They are shifty, but predictable.

Just remember in all athletic endeavors against the brothers, chocolate melts under pressure!

Damn I like that quote.

KingSchmaltzBagelHour · Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:02 pm

ButterCupPowerRanch wrote:Romney.

Just like I predicted.

Protobuilder · Post by **Protobuilder** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:27 pm

I am satisfied because I have to admit that I really just want to see most of GWB’s policies continued, especially those related to making America safe by removing as many civil liberties as possible so that evil people no longer hate the country. Ben Bernanke is a dream because, hey, cheap dollars. Sacrificing the environment for cheap gas seem reasonable and think that the military will never be concerned about their jobs as long as they have something to do in Afghanistan or Iraq...or Iran! Forever! Obama’s been basically a dream President though Romney could have been even better! Suppose that we will never know.

Herv100 · Post by **Herv100** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:30 pm

johno wrote:
MarcoFP wrote:Obama.
That nigger by slaughter.
Go back to shit you know. Like grappling.

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:45 pm

Turdacious wrote:
There are dozens of presidential opinion polls these days, and even more interpretations what they mean. But predictions keep changing, which calls into question how useful they are. The closer you get to an election the easier it is to call it, at least in theory. But it is not really predicting when you change your take on the race with every new poll. For example Nate Silver at his New York Times blog has consistently “predicted” an Obama victory, yet has altered the odds on a daily basis. This is the equivalent of claiming you can predict the outcome of a baseball game, but then changing the odds inning by inning to reflect the evolving state of play. Yes your “prediction” will be very accurate once you reach the 9th inning, but it also doesn't take a stat wizard to make the call.

Traditional social science models do more than simply rehash and average out the latest daily surveys. They look at the influence of variables like age, education, income, sex, race, the economy, and other such factors to come up with more durable conclusions. For example University of Colorado Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry have developed a model based on state-level economic data that predicts Mitt Romney winning with 330 electoral votes. They have applied this model successfully to every presidential race since 1980. It does not shift around with the polls; in fact it does not use them at all.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/rob ... -cant-win/

turd: wrong

silver: right

is anyone surprised by that?

IGX

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