IGX

Ahem - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... for-obama/

Despite having a house of reps full with tea-baggers.

cleaner464 wrote:Ahem - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... for-obama/

Despite having a house of reps full with tea-baggers.

My favorite part of this story is that there are actually dipshits who think the White House made the BLS fix the numbers to counteract Romney's win with the first debate. And these are people who normally (and correctly) are quick to point out how ineffective government is.

If an administration ordered any government data to be tweaked, it would take at least a couple of years for the agency in question to make the required changes and someone in that agency would be mad enough about having to do the extra work to blow the whistle.

Pinky wrote:

cleaner464 wrote:Ahem - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... for-obama/

Despite having a house of reps full with tea-baggers.

My favorite part of this story is that there are actually dipshits who think the White House made the BLS fix the numbers to counteract Romney's win with the first debate. And these are people who normally (and correctly) are quick to point out how ineffective government is.

If an administration ordered any government data to be tweaked, it would take at least a couple of years for the agency in question to make the required changes and someone in that agency would be mad enough about having to do the extra work to blow the whistle.

The BLS is filled with labor economists-- stereotypical labor economists. I doubt there are many non-economists in DC who even understand what they do or what they're even talking about.

Pinky wrote:

cleaner464 wrote:Ahem - http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012 ... for-obama/

Despite having a house of reps full with tea-baggers.

My favorite part of this story is that there are actually dipshits who think the White House made the BLS fix the numbers to counteract Romney's win with the first debate. And these are people who normally (and correctly) are quick to point out how ineffective government is.

If an administration ordered any government data to be tweaked, it would take at least a couple of years for the agency in question to make the required changes and someone in that agency would be mad enough about having to do the extra work to blow the whistle.

Jack Welch was on the tube claiming that "the numbers don't feel right."

i hope the numbers are right and we are 7.8% and companies are hiring like mad, because i am looking and not seeing much movement in market for any of the large number of job seekers i network with weekly. Companies reported 114k new jobs, but household survey, which includes agricultural work, unincorporated self-employment, unpaid family workers, private household workers, and unpaid absences, jumped enourmously by historical monthly change history by over 800k. The database from BLS that explains that is somehow not available.

Maybe it is right, and maybe it isn't. Bigger question is are likely voters seeing jobs for themselves or their neighbors and friends? Think that will determine election more than debates or advertising.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/eri ... _blog.html

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

I've seen a bump locally in construction and infrastructure (non stimulus) hiring over the last three.

Local permitting agencies are ducking for cover because they've laid so many people off they are understaffed. I buy it but construction jobs are mayflies anyway...would rather see a bump in my industrial clients hiring.

Blaidd Drwg wrote:I've seen a bump locally in construction and infrastructure (non stimulus) hiring over the last three.

Local permitting agencies are ducking for cover because they've laid so many people off they are understaffed. I buy it but construction jobs are mayflies anyway...would rather see a bump in my industrial clients hiring.

dfw home construction moving, but telecom, finance, transportation,and IT only really looking at contract hires for now.

IT is up several ticks here...but since IT is most of Here I don;t know it reflects the broader economy.

The Port of Seattle looks full as fuck though...we're certainly buying enough junk.

tourism is booming.

Car loadings are up for the first time in a long time. We'll see if it holds. We've had a couple of false surges in the last two years. They go up and then they go back to shit again. Doesn't affect me but it's killing the new guys.

powerlifter54 wrote:i hope the numbers are right and we are 7.8% and companies are hiring like mad, because i am looking and not seeing much movement in market for any of the large number of job seekers i network with weekly. Companies reported 114k new jobs, but household survey, which includes agricultural work, unincorporated self-employment, unpaid family workers, private household workers, and unpaid absences, jumped enourmously by historical monthly change history by over 800k. The database from BLS that explains that is somehow not available.

The thing to keep in mind is that these are preliminary numbers. They're always revised as more data comes in, but they're not usually revised enough to explain away this large of a change.

And the data will become publicly available.

Construction, and most everything else, down here is mostly dead unless you are on Benning. My cousin was told that he would be going out of town after the holidays if he wanted to keep his construction gig.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.0 64.0
2012 63.7 63.9 63.8 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.5 63.6

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000/

On the data quoted (labor force participation), the last four Septembers are in bold, and 2012 is in blue for clarity. Something seems a little off.

Hope that they're real numbers. A single data point is not a trend.

Engineering in heavy industry is going fucking gangbusters right now.
The firm I am with added 4 new habib mother fuckers who speak the "thank you, come again" dialect of English because we can't find educated white Americans.

Actually, we are now overstaffed for entry-level positions because the normal turnover that happens things time of year has greatly reduced, likely, because of a shaky and uncertain job market. People in similar organizations have reported the same.

MarcoFP wrote:added 4 new habib mother fuckers who speak the "thank you, come again" dialect of English because we can't find educated white Americans.

This will only get a lot worse and soon--in IT anyway. Due to the types of skills that I staff, more than half of the guys I have billing are H1B's and 2/3 of those are travelers who own a suitcase, 3 shirts and 2 pair of pants. They live 6+ to an apartment, spend nothing here and send all that money back to Bangalore. They relocate for each new contract. The other third want the American Dream harder than most Americans do and put the elbow grease into it. They settle down in one town, learn to interact like us and think broader in their jobs above and beyond the training and education they get in India.

One of the "Joe's" I know said he is a dying breed in America. He was an independent whom I placed and worked for me for 2.5 years to the tune of around $200k/yr to him. Is he worth it? Sure, to a rare few. Does the average large enterprise client need him anymore than one of the (polished) $130k H1B consultants that I have whom he helped mentor? Not really. That is one of the gaps that statistics and studies won't reveal, but any of you who are hiring managers with a P&L know exactly what's what there. Then there are companies who don't even 'need' my 130k guy who go to the big Indian consultancies for offshore resources at dirt cheap rates. That usually ends-up in galactic fuck-ups but the rates are too sexy to turn away, I guess.

Another "Joe" (high-level, pricey .NET guy) I have working for me says the American kids just can't handle the math requirements in better U's in order to pursue software engineering degrees these days. His son is going for a SW engineering degree at a better U and is struggling though it. According to dad, his kid is pretty sharp. Anyway, I've heard stats out there that there are 50% less SW engineering grads coming out of US schools than just 10 years ago. Scary.

Third example, not a "Joe" but a Laotian whose parents 'put him on the boat' back in the early 70's so he can have a better life in America, which he does have. He is married to a girl from Taiwan. His kids are now school ages and they and his wife are in Taiwan fulltime so they can be educated there. He said there is no education system in America that can match what his two kids will get over there. And here in Minnesota, we are supposed to be right up at the tippity top of the educational foodchain.

American-born, Naturalized & H1B's are all saying the same thing about American students pursuing higher education in IT: most don't have the chops these days. I don't know what that's about, but what's in the job market certainly proves it to be true.

You guys are forgetting about the real issues.

Initial jobless claims jump by 46,000, but there's an asterisk
WASHINGTON — After initial claims for unemployment surprisingly plunged to a 41/2-year low, they jumped sharply back up again last week to a two-month high, highlighting the volatility of the data and continued sluggish job growth.


WASHINGTON — After initial claims for unemployment surprisingly plunged to a 41/2-year low, they jumped sharply back up again last week to a two-month high, highlighting the volatility of the data and continued sluggish job growth

....

Analysts said the drop in jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 6 was a statistical anomaly driven by those quarterly fluctuations and that the numbers would quickly increase again.

The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for 365,000 new claims for last week.

The Labor Department said last week’s numbers probably were artificially higher than normal and that the previous week’s numbers were artificially lower than normal because the expected quarterly jump in claims was delayed.

Read more here: http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/10/1 ... rylink=cpy

Apparently, Jack Welch was right about the numbers not feeling right.

BUMP

The President of the United States ...

cleaner464 wrote:BUMP

The President of the United States ...

Until impeachment or a bullet.