Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

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Turdacious
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Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

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Violence in Chicago is reaching epidemic proportions. In the first five months of 2016, someone was shot every two and a half hours and someone murdered every 14 hours, for a total of nearly 1,400 nonfatal shooting victims and 240 fatalities. Over Memorial Day weekend, 69 people were shot, nearly one per hour, dwarfing the previous year’s tally of 53 shootings over the same period. The violence is spilling over from the city’s gang-infested South and West Sides into the downtown business district; Lake Shore Drive has seen drive-by shootings and robberies.

The growing mayhem is the result of Chicago police officers’ withdrawal from proactive enforcement, making the city a dramatic example of what I have called the “Ferguson effect.” Since the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri, in August 2014, the conceit that American policing is lethally racist has dominated the national airwaves and political discourse, from the White House on down. In response, cops in minority neighborhoods in Chicago and other cities around the country are backing off pedestrian stops and public-order policing; criminals are flourishing in the resulting vacuum. (An early and influential Ferguson-effect denier has now changed his mind: in a June 2016 study for the National Institute of Justice, Richard Rosenfeld of the University of Missouri–St. Louis concedes that the 2015 homicide increase in the nation’s large cities was “real and nearly unprecedented.” “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” he told the Guardian.)

Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel warned in October 2015 that officers were going “fetal,” as shootings in the city skyrocketed. But 2016 has brought an even sharper reduction in proactive enforcement. Devastating failures in Chicago’s leadership after a horrific police shooting and an ill-considered pact between the American Civil Liberties Union and the police are driving that reduction. Residents of Chicago’s high-crime areas are paying the price [...]

The murder that shook the city to its core was the assassination of nine-year-old Tyshawn Lee. He was playing in a park on November 2, 2015, when a 22-year-old gangster, Dwight Boone-Doty, lured him into an alley with the promise of chips and candy. Boone-Doty fatally shot the boy, then fled with two accomplices, bleaching the getaway car and dumping it in Dalton, Illinois. Boone-Doty’s original plan, according to a police source, was to kidnap Tyshawn and send his ears and fingers to his mother. Tyshawn’s father was a member of the gang believed responsible for shooting the brother and mother of one of Boone-Doty’s accomplices a few weeks earlier.
http://www.city-journal.org/html/chicag ... 14605.html
How accurate is this, and is the pattern repeating in other cities?
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Re: Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

Post by Protobuilder »

Police backed off in NYC after that guy selling cigarettes was shot. People lost their mind complaining they wanted police on the street "doing their job" after that.

You would have to dig for stats to find out if this is happening in other cities but from the number of comments that the cops in Dallas 'deserved this' for...providing security for a BLM protest, I would be surprised if it wasn't the case.
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Re: Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

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It's not accurate. Looking at a multi-year trend, murders in Chicago continue to drop (we had a bad Q1). Officers are not going fetal, they are killing as many or more people as they were before Ferguson.
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Re: Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

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Grandpa's Spells wrote:It's not accurate. Looking at a multi-year trend, murders in Chicago continue to drop (we had a bad Q1). Officers are not going fetal, they are killing as many or more people as they were before Ferguson.
"The Ferguson Effect," which I assume means less aggressive policing, could also contribute to police killings...fewer guns taken off bad actors, etc. All speculation at this point.

What big cities use enlightened tactics? Any relevant stats & results?
I speculate that police body cams would improve things, but they didn't prevent the Baton Rouge shooting. (Not that any improved tactic/policy would prevent all police shootings.
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Re: Laquan McDonald, Tyshawn Lee, and the Ferguson Effect

Post by Turdacious »

I've heard that in my area that crime is up overall but I haven't noticed any change in local crime rates-- I live in a low crime area and tend to stay out of the higher crime areas after dark. My guess is that the crime rise is pretty localized, but have no frame of reference other than stats.

Re the second city though:
A war among criminals rages on in America's third-largest city, with innocent residents caught in the crossfire.
Over the holiday weekend, Chicago passed an ominous threshold: So far in 2016, 2,000 people have been victims of gun violence. In all of last year, 2,988 people were victims of gun violence, according to records kept by The Chicago Tribune.
http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/05/us/chicag ... ce-july-4/

Also: http://heyjackass.com/category/2016-stats/
I took particular note of the '2016 Total Shot' area. As you stated, Q1 2016 was horrible, but Q2 is pretty bad too. The relatively low increase in deaths may be partially due to better emergency medicine practices, but the significant increase in shootings seems problematic.
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