Blaidd Drwg wrote:
If the science is as unsure as described...you'd be an idiot to PLAN for the upside when the downside is what's daunting.
They are not planning for either. They are seemingly trying to prevent what's happening by means of dubious efficacy. So far there are only cries of the next impending doom.
Well, I can tell you that's' flatly untrue. I work in the actual "Land Use and Planning" industry. All major ports, cities, municipal corporations and state agencies are absolutely PLANNING for what to do in the face of emerging science. This is not the typical Y2K boondoggle industry. By way of example, there are billions of dollars at stake yearly, trillions over the next few decades in adjusting municipal water policies in the Western US to prepare for increased weather variability and hence wildly unreliable snow pack.
If I were looking for a way to address "the problem" I'd be funding the fuck out of the next wave of antibiotic drugs to deal with emerging diseases and going hard on desalination technology along the coastal cities.
"He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." JS Mill
'Zika is now here': Mosquitoes are spreading virus in U.S.
l.a. times headline
mosquito season is now longer:
Cities like Baltimore and Durham, N.C., have seen their annual average mosquito season grow by nearly 40 days since the 1980s.
Dozens of cities across the Midwest, Northeast, and along the Atlantic Coast have all seen their mosquito seasons grow by at least 20 days over the past 35 years.
It is another scare, similar to bird and swine flu that was supposed to kill fifty million people. The association between Zika and microcephaly is very weak, and conclusions regarding its dangers to pregnant women were far fetched. If you have patience - here, for popular rehash - here, and something more conspiratorial though plausible - here
i'm hoping to live long enough for you to accept the truth of climate change. or perhaps i'll live long enough to learn the claim is an elaborate hoax.
at the moment, it's sweltering.
Really Big Strong Guy: There are a plethora of psychopaths among us.
The Arctic sea ice melting is a bummer, since it points to the climate change, but it is water in the sea turning into ice in the sea and back into water in the sea, so no effect on sea level rise. It's highly visible, though.
It's Greenland and Antarctica that matter for the sea level, as ice on land turns into water in the sea. I'll be curious to see when the Greenland melting starts up next Spring. In the Nat Geo special they showed that weather station on Greenland that had a 40 ft deep well with cable on it, and the 40 feet had melted away so the cable was lying in a pile. Scary stuff.
there have been several studies about antarctic glacial melting and the likely rise in sea level that will result, but the time frames are long-term.
on the bright side, a neighboring vegetable farmer yesterday commented on how much longer the growing season has become. good news for us in the valley. not so good for the ski areas.
Really Big Strong Guy: There are a plethora of psychopaths among us.
For what appears to be the first time since scientists began keeping track, sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic are at record lows this time of year.
Temperatures in the Arctic have soared recently, and scientists are struggling to explain exactly why, and what the consequences will be. Air temperatures have been running more than 35 degrees Fahrenheit (20 degrees Celsius) above average.
While it is too early to know if the recent, rapid decline in Antarctic sea ice is going to be a regular occurrence like in the Arctic, it "certainly puts the kibosh on everyone saying that Antarctica's ice is just going up and up. . ."
absolutely a longer growing season. until a couple days ago, we were still getting brussels sprouts from the garden. i need not fret. i don't live on the coast, so my home won't flood. not the southwest, either, where there ain't no water. and seeahill's home state is burning to nothingness soon.
what we do have is ticks. can't avoid them, if you go in the woods. they love the dogs and the old lady. me, not so much, but i've had three bites recently. tick bites itch like crazy for weeks, no exaggeration.
Really Big Strong Guy: There are a plethora of psychopaths among us.
In April, Sean Becketti, the chief economist for Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage giant, issued a dire prediction. It is only a matter of time, he wrote, before sea level rise and storm surges become so unbearable along the coast that people will leave, ditching their mortgages and potentially triggering another housing meltdown — except this time, it would be unlikely that these housing prices would ever recover.
from an article about soon-to-be totally fucked coastal real estate.
In April, Sean Becketti, the chief economist for Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage giant, issued a dire prediction. It is only a matter of time, he wrote, before sea level rise and storm surges become so unbearable along the coast that people will leave, ditching their mortgages and potentially triggering another housing meltdown — except this time, it would be unlikely that these housing prices would ever recover.
from an article about soon-to-be totally fucked coastal real estate.
If I was a hardcore environmentalist, I might see an upside to nature reclaiming her beaches.
On a cheerier note, Antarctic sea ice hasn't shrunk in 100 years according to Climate Depot. I don't know who the are but they're on the Webernet so it must be true.
Mao wrote:Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Our principle is that the Party commands the gun, and the gun must never be allowed to command the Party
In April, Sean Becketti, the chief economist for Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage giant, issued a dire prediction. It is only a matter of time, he wrote, before sea level rise and storm surges become so unbearable along the coast that people will leave, ditching their mortgages and potentially triggering another housing meltdown — except this time, it would be unlikely that these housing prices would ever recover.
from an article about soon-to-be totally fucked coastal real estate.
If I was a hardcore environmentalist, I might see an upside to nature reclaiming her beaches.
On a cheerier note, Antarctic sea ice hasn't shrunk in 100 years according to Climate Depot. I don't know who the are but they're on the Webernet so it must be true.
Sea ice doesn't matter, since it is just ocean water freezing and melting back and forth. No effect on sea level. It is the glaciers and melting that is dumping all of the ice off of Greenland and Antarctica that matters. That stuff takes frozen precipitation to put it back.
there have been reports of antarctic glacial melting that some scientists consider "unstoppable," which over a considerable time will lead to rising sea levels.
Really Big Strong Guy: There are a plethora of psychopaths among us.
Blaidd Drwg wrote:
Meh....No. IDC about the soup behind your name...I meant....Tell us your understanding of the current science. The IGX zeitgeist on this issue is somewhere between chemtrail conspiracies and a dead certainty the glaciers are encroaching on the central west right under MSNBC's nose.
If the credentials mean nothing then the opinion that comes with them should mean no more than those who opine across the breadth you cite. Which means you already have all the input you need.
That aside, and without writing a treatise, there are two matters and they often get conflated. To wit, what are the long term consequences of of the climate change that's ongoing and what is its source-man made, natural or a combination and in what degree. Taking for now just the former, the simplest synopsis is that the level of certainty proffered by some is not possible and therefore not scientific. Especially those who forecast a half century into the future. On the other hand, the models are good enough that they have some predictive ability. They don't fail in their entirety but as time evolves, so does their departure from observation.....
As to what to do, know that the everything on the table as a solution will not stop the warming as projected, only delay it. Also realize there are tangible benefits to a warmer planet in the short run. The heart of the problem is that if you don't really know what the long term consequences are, what is a reasonable prophylactic now. Prudence is warranted, hysteria is not, at least to the degree that the model suggests actions that have no muster with people no matter how many bumper stickers they have to the contrary (they are, after all, still driving cars so how much do they truly believe or care...). Makes sense, a lot of sense, to minimize pollution with or without global warming all the same.
The $10,000 question is not the "science" but the economics and politics.
Do we need "Social Regimentation" like DMW and other hyper Statists want? Does the science demand such idiotic solutions?
Would a gradual transition to non carbon sources work, sources that do not require Wind Power and other dullard sources of power? More Nukes, Thermo, Hydro, and possibly plasma based nuclear fusion once it's economically possible? We need to get away from combustion anyhow, to save those items for chemical feed stocks.
Last edited by Gene on Sun Nov 27, 2016 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
nafod wrote:Within the Navy, and in the urban planning community I get to listen to, the discussion is about dealing with it. They've moved past the "is it occurring" stage. So sea walls, setbacks, rezoning, new shipping routes, and human migration are all topics.
The President commands, the Navy obeys. Ain't rocket surgery, Nafod.
nafod wrote:Within the Navy, and in the urban planning community I get to listen to, the discussion is about dealing with it. They've moved past the "is it occurring" stage. So sea walls, setbacks, rezoning, new shipping routes, and human migration are all topics.
The President commands, the Navy obeys. Ain't rocket surgery, Nafod.
The process he describes of being in a "post if" environment and addressing "when" has gone far beyond administrations and agencies. Within the larger strategic, disaster, and resource planning communities climate change is an element of nearly every decision. Whether you're Shell oil or the local municipal water engineer, you are looking forward under an expectation of changed circumstances. Whichever side of the debate you find yourself, this is a best practice.
"He who knows only his own side of the case knows little of that." JS Mill
