It is all real fgts

nafod · Post by **nafod** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 1:45 pm

To pile on, the VRWC fever swamp dwelling Hillary haters have tried and tried and tried to pin something on her and eternally failed. They are like 0-100. What are the odds that this odd story is finally the true one? Or just another epic fail?

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 3:01 pm

shouldn't you be talking about penn state football?

Grandpa's Spells · Post by **Grandpa's Spells** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:17 pm

Some lady arrested in FL making terroristic threats against a Sandy Hook parent. This shit isn't funny.

nafod · Post by **nafod** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 4:29 pm

Flynn . . . claimed in an August radio interview that Arabic signs were present along the United States border with Mexico to guide potential state-sponsored terrorists and “radicalized Muslims” into the United States. Flynn further said in the interview he had personally seen photos of such signs in Texas.

Benny, this is an easy one to prove.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:31 pm

nafod wrote:
bennyonesix wrote:Let's take an example to work through this.

Shaf claims he won the lottery the last two times.

You say ridiculous 1) infinitesimal chance you won and 2) you are a chunky degenerate freak of a schmoe shaf. Therefore you didn't win because the extraordinary evidence required to prove your extraordinary claim is so great as to not exist in reality.

You say this despite the fact that A) people do win the lottery twice (it is not whether shaf was likely to win it twice) and B) shaf's personal and unfortunate lifestyle choices are irrelevant.
There are two hypotheses at work here. 1) Shaf actually won the lottery. Twice. 2) Shaf is a lying sack of shit.

The evidence provided (Shaf says he won the lottery) agrees equally with both hypotheses, and so carries no information. It remains infinitesimally likely.

Same with the nut cases accusing Hillary and Podesta. The "evidence" agrees equally with either them doing it, or assholes making shit up. The "evidence" carries no information.

Now I think you are completely tendentious and not simply ignorant.

The point of the analogy was not Shafs statement. But disingenuously framing it that way was most convenient for you. I'll give you that.

The point was, your "Bayesian" analysis was merely cover for your biases against those lodging the claims. In it, you used specious assumptions to foreclose the possibilty of proof and any need to examine the evidence. You also falsely argued that some clams require qualitatively different proof because of unlikeliness.

It's also why you failed to address Popper's critique. You plainly misused Bayes as a form justificationism.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 5:32 pm

nafod wrote:To pile on, the VRWC fever swamp dwelling Hillary haters have tried and tried and tried to pin something on her and eternally failed. They are like 0-100. What are the odds that this odd story is finally the true one? Or just another epic fail?

Interesting question, why not evaluate the evidence and tell us?

nafod · Post by **nafod** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 6:06 pm

bennyonesix wrote:
nafod wrote:To pile on, the VRWC fever swamp dwelling Hillary haters have tried and tried and tried to pin something on her and eternally failed. They are like 0-100. What are the odds that this odd story is finally the true one? Or just another epic fail?
Interesting question, why not evaluate the evidence and tell us?

I did. The "evidence" is bullshit. By "bullshit" I mean it in no way discriminates between the two hypotheses. It supports them both completely. It is useless.

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 10:42 pm

russian hackers

Foes of Russia Say Child Pornography Is Planted to Ruin Them

. . . a new and particularly noxious form of an old K.G.B. dirty trick known as kompromat, the fabrication and planting of compromising or illegal material.

Old-style kompromat featured doctored photographs, planted drugs, grainy videos of liaisons with prostitutes hired by the K.G.B., and a wide range of other primitive entrapment techniques.

Today, however, kompromat has become allied with the more sophisticated tricks of cybermischief-making.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world ... v=top-news

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Fri Dec 09, 2016 11:36 pm

dead man walking wrote:russian hackers

Foes of Russia Say Child Pornography Is Planted to Ruin Them

. . . a new and particularly noxious form of an old K.G.B. dirty trick known as kompromat, the fabrication and planting of compromising or illegal material.

Old-style kompromat featured doctored photographs, planted drugs, grainy videos of liaisons with prostitutes hired by the K.G.B., and a wide range of other primitive entrapment techniques.

Today, however, kompromat has become allied with the more sophisticated tricks of cybermischief-making.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/09/world ... v=top-news

Are you saying Anthony Weiner was hacked ?

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:02 am

i have previously attributed the orange one's victory to putin. my keen insight is further supported by the report in the times.

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 1:54 am

actually, russian interference is not something to take lightly:

The CIA has reportedly concluded in a secret assessment that Russia did intervene in the election to assist Donald Trump, rather than just to disrupt the democratic process. Intelligence agenices reportedly identified individuals with ties to the Russian government who gave WikiLeaks thousands of emails from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's campaign. “It is the assessment of the intelligence community that Russia’s goal here was to favor one candidate over the other, to help Trump get elected,” one senior U.S. official briefed on the intelligence presentation said

the daily beast, from the wa post, i think

DrDonkeyLove · Post by **DrDonkeyLove** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:31 am

dead man walking wrote:actually, russian interference is not something to take lightly:

The CIA has reportedly concluded in a secret assessment that Russia did intervene in the election to assist Donald Trump, rather than just to disrupt the democratic process. Intelligence agenices reportedly identified individuals with ties to the Russian government who gave WikiLeaks thousands of emails from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's campaign. “It is the assessment of the intelligence community that Russia’s goal here was to favor one candidate over the other, to help Trump get elected,” one senior U.S. official briefed on the intelligence presentation said
the daily beast, from the wa post, i think

I ask myself why the Russians would want Trump so badly over Clinton. Trump is supposedly a Vlad fan boy but it's not like the Obama/Clinton team were some great anti-Russian crusaders. No substantial resistance to Putin in Ukraine, or Georgia, or Syria, and Hillary helped grease the skids so Vlad could get his hands on US Uranium deposits. And, IIRC Obama cancelled selling the Poles a system to defend them selves from the Russians.

I wonder if a lot of the handwringing relates to the incompetent Trump

Putin autocrat meme and the election was stolen, horribly stolen, from our one true rightful president who won the majority of the vote.

Of coarse the US has never tried to influence the election of another sovereign nation

. It's against our values!

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 2:43 am

obama has u.s. intel getting to the bottom of this dark conspiracy.

crazies on the left will be hoping he seriously undermines pumpkin donnie's legitimacy and makes the orange one's birther gambit look like an amateur con.

a man can dream.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:00 am

DrDonkeyLove wrote:
dead man walking wrote:actually, russian interference is not something to take lightly:

The CIA has reportedly concluded in a secret assessment that Russia did intervene in the election to assist Donald Trump, rather than just to disrupt the democratic process. Intelligence agenices reportedly identified individuals with ties to the Russian government who gave WikiLeaks thousands of emails from the Democratic National Committee and Hillary Clinton's campaign. “It is the assessment of the intelligence community that Russia’s goal here was to favor one candidate over the other, to help Trump get elected,” one senior U.S. official briefed on the intelligence presentation said
the daily beast, from the wa post, i think
I ask myself why the Russians would want Trump so badly over Clinton. Trump is supposedly a Vlad fan boy but it's not like the Obama/Clinton team were some great anti-Russian crusaders. No substantial resistance to Putin in Ukraine, or Georgia, or Syria, and Hillary helped grease the skids so Vlad could get his hands on US Uranium deposits. And, IIRC Obama cancelled selling the Poles a system to defend them selves from the Russians.

I wonder if a lot of the handwringing relates to the incompetent Trump :heart: Putin autocrat meme and the election was stolen, horribly stolen, from our one true rightful president who won the majority of the vote.

Of coarse the US has never tried to influence the election of another sovereign nation [-X . It's against our values!

This is a co-ordinated release of allegations today. It is the neolib faction of the deep state trying to undermine Trump.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:03 am

dead man walking wrote:obama has u.s. intel getting to the bottom of this dark conspiracy.

crazies on the left will be hoping he seriously undermines pumpkin donnie's legitimacy and makes the orange one's birther gambit look like an amateur con.

a man can dream.

Doesn't it make you wonder why there is such a concentrated push of info on this topic from the media?

Right or wrong, doesn't the manner of release raise some questions in and of itself?

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:03 am

http://www.itworld.com/article/3148709/ ... picks=true

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:07 am

It is fun to see former comitted anti anti commies and anti CIA types citing to US Intel Agencies fighting a Civil War.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 4:10 am

Just.... lulz

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/st ... tion-effo/

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 5:17 am

dead man walking wrote:obama has u.s. intel getting to the bottom of this dark conspiracy.

crazies on the left will be hoping he seriously undermines pumpkin donnie's legitimacy and makes the orange one's birther gambit look like an amateur con.

a man can dream.

I think you'll find this an interesting analysis.

https://www.emptywheel.net/2016/12/09/u ... -footnote/

Turdacious · Post by **Turdacious** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 6:53 am

Benny-- are you married to a Kardashian?

nafod · Post by **nafod** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 12:47 pm

bennyonesix wrote:
dead man walking wrote:obama has u.s. intel getting to the bottom of this dark conspiracy.

crazies on the left will be hoping he seriously undermines pumpkin donnie's legitimacy and makes the orange one's birther gambit look like an amateur con.

a man can dream.

Doesn't it make you wonder why there is such a concentrated push of info on this topic from the media?

Right or wrong, doesn't the manner of release raise some questions in and of itself?

Another country meddling in our politics has always been a big deal. See McCarthy and the assault on the commie bastards. To do so successfully is a big fucking deal. It s weird how the Fox News and ilk are ignoring it.

Donk, Trump didn't know Crimea was annexed, his campaign manager was tied directly to pro Russian Ukrainians, he has business dealings in Russia hidden behind his tax returns, Flynn has hung out with RT news, and just so many more weird connections that have never been seen before.

TerryB · Post by **TerryB** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:04 pm

nafod wrote: Trump didn't know Crimea was annexed, his campaign manager was tied directly to pro Russian Ukrainians, he has business dealings in Russia hidden behind his tax returns, Flynn has hung out with RT news, and just so many more weird connections that have never been seen before.

Good grief, and you were discussing evidentiary standards and burdens of proof just a few pages ago.

So far have we fallen, dear nafod! Go read a book you sick fuckk!

dead man walking · Post by **dead man walking** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:37 pm

TerryB wrote:
nafod wrote: Trump didn't know Crimea was annexed, his campaign manager was tied directly to pro Russian Ukrainians, he has business dealings in Russia hidden behind his tax returns, Flynn has hung out with RT news, and just so many more weird connections that have never been seen before.
Good grief, and you were discussing evidentiary standards and burdens of proof just a few pages ago.

So far have we fallen, dear nafod! Go read a book you sick fuckk!

the poor trumpettes are going to have difficulty with this business of the russian hack. they'll try to discredit the story, throw other shiny objects in the air to attract attention, offer some competing conspiracy theory, slander those who discuss the subject, and point out various cia flaws to suggest the agency could not possibly know anything.

but you know in your heart, you'd love to see what is in the trump team's emails.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:52 pm

nafod wrote:
bennyonesix wrote:
dead man walking wrote:obama has u.s. intel getting to the bottom of this dark conspiracy.

crazies on the left will be hoping he seriously undermines pumpkin donnie's legitimacy and makes the orange one's birther gambit look like an amateur con.

a man can dream.

Doesn't it make you wonder why there is such a concentrated push of info on this topic from the media?

Right or wrong, doesn't the manner of release raise some questions in and of itself?
Another country meddling in our politics has always been a big deal. See McCarthy and the assault on the commie bastards. To do so successfully is a big fucking deal. It s weird how the Fox News and ilk are ignoring it.

What is it with you? Can you not be direct for even one second? Must you always misdirect and obfuscate?

My questions were about the timing and manner of these disclosures. I even stated that the rightness or wrongness of the claims were not what I was addressing. And then ofc you jump right in with tangential bullshit.

bennyonesix · Post by **bennyonesix** » Sat Dec 10, 2016 3:54 pm

TerryB wrote:
nafod wrote: Trump didn't know Crimea was annexed, his campaign manager was tied directly to pro Russian Ukrainians, he has business dealings in Russia hidden behind his tax returns, Flynn has hung out with RT news, and just so many more weird connections that have never been seen before.
Good grief, and you were discussing evidentiary standards and burdens of proof just a few pages ago.

So far have we fallen, dear nafod! Go read a book you sick fuckk!

Bayesian Priors! The evidence must both prove the claim and disprove all counter claims! Infinitesimal!

IGX

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