IGX

I haven't paid attention in a few months but polls and pundits are 100% certain Trump will never get past either Bush or Rubio and won't stay in the election past October 2015.

Protobuilder wrote:I haven't paid attention in a few months but polls and pundits are 100% certain Trump will never get past either Bush or Rubio and won't stay in the election past October 2015.

Pundits were wrong, yes. But the polls were right on with the primaries.

Andy, are you telling me you don't have enough faith in Sean Hannity to bet five bucks?

Who is Sean Hannity?

Andy82 wrote:Who is Sean Hannity?

A guy recently named "the most ignorant Fox TV" personality. You're too smart to watch crap like that.

That's cable TV, no? I don't subscribe to cable TV. Too smart for any of it. Trump the next president of the US.

Andy82 wrote:Trump the next president of the US.

For the record, I hope you are right. But I have serious doubts.

Hey, are you Lych that used to run this site from Germany and having problems with getting your family over her in the US??

Andy82 wrote:

milosz wrote:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... -election/

Trump is losing ground with college educated whites - take that to 50/50. The Latino vote will go to 80-85% for Hillary. Assume the turnout for black Americans drops to the mid-50s and declines a couple of points back toward Trump. Hill Dawg wins 358-180.

The realities of a national election are that Republicans since 1960 have depended on ever-higher percentages of the white male vote (and the white vote in general) to remain competitive - unfortunately there's a point where you can't win more of the white male vote and whites as a whole are a declining electoral force.

Your analysis has nothing to do with anything except your babbling pseudo intellect.

Andy doesn't trust smart people. Sad!

This vicious snark is too good not to shoehorn in here. From Takimag.

Jim Goad wrote:Legend has it that Chelsea Clinton gestated in Hillary’s womb for a full nine months. One marvels at her ability to survive so long in subzero temperatures. Our nation cannot afford to shiver in darkness for four years amid the windy, capacious, and unforgiving ice cave that is Hillary Clinton’s vagina.

Trump just suggested that if Clinton is elected and allowed to appoint SC Judges that maybe "the 2nd Amendment people might be able to do something about that."

*shrug*

here you go, andy:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/201 ... id=rrpromo

Trump will be the next president of the US.

Andy82 wrote:Trump will be the next president of the US.

Andy, you've been around a while. How many niggers did you beat up for drinking from the wrong water fountain?

LOL

Trump is nearly finished.

Andy83 wrote:Trump will be the next president of the US.

All the "smart" people talk about Nate Silver, 538, etc. and this humble site has the most perfect prognosticator of presidential elections in modern history.

Yet, ignored by the MSM. Shows you how out of touch with reality they are.

DrDonkeyLove wrote: All the "smart" people talk about Nate Silver, 538, etc. and this humble site has the most perfect prognosticator of presidential elections in modern history.

Yet, ignored by the MSM. Shows you how out of touch with reality they are.

question the truth of what you say.

silver was lured from the ny times by espn (abc/disney). they're not mainstream? i couldn't tell you how often his predictions were discussed by others, but he was not ignored. there was a fair amount of discussion about silver's adjustments to polls vs the approach of others.

i think he did poorly in predicting trump in the primary (weak recollection of that). for the presidential, he had hillary at about 80%, as i recall, and made a big deal about he wasn't as far off as others.

the princeton prof of whatever who does his polls as a hobby is a hoot. not the least defensive, unlike so many pundits. he was on a tear for awhile, but was way wrong on the election because of his statistical approach--openly discussed and critiqued on his site. he ate a bug on tv as penance. he's a chinaman, so that was nothing unusual for him.

p.s. silver just wrote a review of the press' election coverage--"the real story"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... y-of-2016/

it includes this defense of the polls:

Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.

emphasis added, although i can't attest to the truth of silver's assertions.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLXuJTDiouI[/youtube]

dead man walking wrote:p.s. silver just wrote a review of the press' election coverage--"the real story"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/th ... y-of-2016/

it includes this defense of the polls:

Another myth is that Trump’s victory represented some sort of catastrophic failure for the polls. Trump outperformed his national polls by only 1 to 2 percentage points in losing the popular vote to Clinton, making them slightly closer to the mark than they were in 2012. Meanwhile, he beat his polls by only 2 to 3 percentage points in the average swing state.3 Certainly, there were individual pollsters that had some explaining to do, especially in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where Trump beat his polls by a larger amount. But the result was not some sort of massive outlier; on the contrary, the polls were pretty much as accurate as they’d been, on average, since 1968.

emphasis added, although i can't attest to the truth of silver's assertions.

Accurate. The week before the election some of my more liberal friends were debating how Nate's model "failed."