IGX

22,445 - down 4,383 points from 26,828 in October. 16% in three of months, large part of it just this week. What's up, is another economic crisis coming? Where are the market wizards, gurus and forecasters? The chart has broken through couple of convincing supports, and if it breaks 20,000 it can get ugly. I am not an alarmist, but you have to be bearish looking at the price action.

I'm not sure that anyone knows for sure. I think that too much is made of the DJIA. What's good for Wall Street is good for Wall Street. The rest of us? Depends.

Dumbasses in the Trump Administration chattered about "Plunge Protection". That kind of talk doesn't assure anyone.

A few things in play. A Fed Chairman who is not political like previous ones, but who is very focused on keeping growth at 2.5%. So a lot of arguably not wise rate hikes. After 8 years of nothing but rate cuts. The end of Quantitative Easing, which means they printed money like crazy. And end of year financial industry measurement, margin calls, and automated selling.

Fundamentals are not great but they are fine. For the bold and wise who had sat on cash rather than jumped in late, an opportunity. For others a tough time.

But undoubtedly egged on by those who see political opportunity. My read is the economy will not hurt Trump in 2020. But I would temper that with about 70% confidence.

I think the tax cuts may have provided a temporary boost to the economy overlaid on the fundamentals and hiding lurking issues, and I worry that the recent big burst in deficit spending will leave the government weakened when it is time to use deficit spending to level out a struggling economy.

The stock market goes up & down. Unless you're a fool, you dollar-cost average and otherwise ignore the market.

I agree with Jack that the Fed has a considerable impact on the market. The Federal funds rate was near zero from 2009-2015.

My question was largely rhetorical. But the significance of market movements are tricky. Index falls for visible reasons are the least significant. 9/11 was a good example: nothing changed fundamentally, so the collapse wasn't much to worry about. However, unexplained index changes often predict the movements of the economy. Big money starts cashing out way before journalists and general public become aware of something important. If this is the case now remains to be seen.

Markets fluctuate and we are overdue for a correction. Add to that uncertainty regarding international trade and the generally fucked state of geo-politics and it's to be expected.

I have been studying the stock market for 30 years and am a mega-rich sorta guy. If you want to know what the stock market is going to do, send me $50 in a self-addressed stamped envelope. Maybe I'll reply.

seeahill wrote: ↑Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:18 am I have been studying the stock market for 30 years and am a mega-rich sorta guy. If you want to know what the stock market is going to do, send me $50 in a self-addressed stamped envelope. Maybe I'll reply.

Do you accept American Express?